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Two seismograph recordings from Oct. 17: Edmonton shows one sharp spike at 1:44 p.m., while Hughenden, 20 km from the fire site, shows nothing unusual at the time a blast from the base would arrive. Headline: Was there an explosion?

CFB Wainwright Explosion (October 17, 2026)Alberta Canadian Armed Forces Department of National Defence Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)

Was there an explosion at CFB Wainwright? We checked the seismographs

Was there an explosion at CFB Wainwright? We checked the seismographs Several posts on X…

ByKevin J.S. Duska Jr.
OnOctober 19, 2026
3 Comments

Satellite map of the CFB Wainwright fire area showing yellow fire detections and a red dashed burned area between two lakes, with red diamonds marking producing gas wells around it, under the headline "The fire and the gas wells."

CFB Wainwright Explosion (October 17, 2026)Alberta Emergency Management Agency (AEMA)Alberta Energy Regulator Canadian Armed Forces Department of National Defence Investigative Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Infrastructure Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)

Gas wells played no part in the CFB Wainwright fire, records show

Gas wells played no part in the CFB Wainwright fire, records show No well lies…

ByKevin J.S. Duska Jr.
OnOctober 19, 2026
6 Comments

Map of the CFB Wainwright training area on a Sentinel-2 image from Oct. 4, with yellow Landsat 8 detections at 12:17 p.m., blue NOAA-20 pixels at 2:49 p.m., a large slanted GOES-18 pixel outline at 3:30 p.m., wind arrows turning from southwest to northwest, and a red burned area running southeast from the detections.

CFB Wainwright Explosion (October 17, 2026)Bureaucratic Suppression of Information Canadian Armed Forces Department of National Defence

The storm line, then the fire: every satellite record of the CFB Wainwright fire, on one map

The storm line, then the fire: every satellite record of the CFB Wainwright fire, on…

ByKevin J.S. Duska Jr.
OnOctober 19, 2026
5 Comments

Header graphic: National Defence said the fire "ignited" at 4 p.m.; records show fire at 12:17 and 2:49 p.m., a 2:14 p.m. wind warning and an Extreme fire-danger rating.

CFB Wainwright Explosion (October 17, 2026)Bureaucratic Suppression of Information Canadian Armed Forces Department of National Defence Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)

Every Warning Light Was On: What Most Likely Happened at CFB Wainwright

Every Warning Light Was On: What Most Likely Happened at CFB Wainwright A fire burning…

ByKevin J.S. Duska Jr.
OnOctober 19, 2026
9 Comments

Prime Rogue full analysis header reading A week of satellite data on the Wainwright fire. Every NASA detection near CFB Wainwright, Oct. 12 to 18: what it shows, what it can't, and what the military has said. A Sentinel-2 satellite image of the training area shows a saline lake with NASA fire detections plotted on it: yellow Landsat 8 detections and blue NOAA-20 squares from Oct. 17 north of the lake, a white NOAA-21 square from Oct. 14 on the lake's west shore, and orange squares from Oct. 18 to the southeast. Every NASA fire detection near CFB Wainwright from Oct. 12 to 18, on a Sentinel-2 image of the training area taken Oct. 4. (Imagery: contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data. Fire data: NASA FIRMS. Graphic: Prime Rogue Inc.)

CFB Wainwright Explosion (October 17, 2026)Bureaucratic Suppression of Information Canada Canadian Armed Forces Department of National Defence

A week of satellite data on the CFB Wainwright fire: burning by 2:49 p.m., likely since morning

A week of satellite data on the Wainwright fire: burning by 2:49 p.m., likely since…

ByKevin J.S. Duska Jr.
OnOctober 19, 2026
4 Comments

Analysis header reading “Ignited” at 4 p.m. vs. known for hours: National Defence’s account vs. the military’s own. Two quote cards compare DND’s overnight Oct. 18 news release, which says at approximately 4:00 p.m. “a fire ignited within the training area,” with the Sunday military briefing, where Range Control “was aware there was a fire for several hours and were monitoring it.”

CFB Wainwright Explosion (October 17, 2026)Alberta Canada Canadian Armed Forces Canadian Military Operations Department of National Defence Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)

DND said the Wainwright fire “ignited” at 4 p.m. The military now says it was known for hours

DND said the Wainwright fire “ignited” at 4 p.m. The military now says it was…

ByKevin J.S. Duska Jr.
OnOctober 18, 2026
7 Comments