Portugal Cancels F-35 Order, Canada Reconsiders: Is NATO Breaking Away from U.S. Military Dependence?

Introduction: The Shifting F-35 Landscape

For years, the F-35 Lightning II has been the crown jewel of NATO’s air power strategy—a state-of-the-art stealth fighter designed to unify allied air forces under a single, interoperable platform. The world’s most advanced warplane, built by Lockheed Martin, was supposed to be the future. But in the last 48 hours, that future has suddenly come into question.

First, Portugal announced that it was canceling its planned F-35 purchase, citing fears over Trump’s return to power and the growing unpredictability of U.S. defense commitments. Then, just hours later, Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair confirmed that his government is now reassessing whether to move forward with all 88 F-35s on order—despite already having paid for the first 16 jets. In a stunning reversal, Blair suggested that Canada may seek alternative suppliers for part of its fleet, including European manufacturers like Sweden’s Saab and France’s Dassault.

This raises a pivotal question: Is this just a coincidence, or is NATO experiencing the beginning of a larger breakaway from U.S. military dependence?

With Donald Trump openly threatening NATO’s existence, imposing trade penalties on key allies, and weaponizing economic coercion against Canada and Europe, some governments are beginning to ask: Can we really trust the United States as a defense partner anymore?

The consequences of this moment could be enormous. If Portugal and Canada are merely the first dominoes to fall, could Germany, Spain, or other NATO members be next? Could this mark the start of a major European push to replace U.S. military hardware with homegrown alternatives?

And most importantly: If even America’s closest allies are now backing away from the F-35, is the entire program—and the U.S. military-industrial complex—entering a period of decline?

Let’s break it down.

1. Portugal and Canada – The First Dominoes?

For years, the F-35 program has faced criticism over its soaring costs, complex maintenance requirements, and geopolitical risks associated with relying on the United States as a sole supplier. But until now, NATO members have largely stuck with the program—whether due to political pressure, interoperability needs, or sunk costs.

That changed this week.

Portugal’s Sudden F-35 Exit

On March 12, 2025, Portugal became the first NATO country to publicly withdraw from its planned F-35 acquisition, citing concerns about:

• Trump’s threats to NATO, which raise questions about future U.S. defense commitments.
• Economic instability tied to U.S.-European trade tensions.
• Reliability issues surrounding long-term F-35 maintenance and software control.

Although Portugal’s fleet was small compared to major NATO air forces, its withdrawal sends a clear signal: even smaller allies are no longer willing to blindly follow the U.S. in military procurement.

Canada Reconsiders Its $19 Billion F-35 Deal

Then, just hours after Portugal’s announcement, Canada dropped its own bombshell.

Defence Minister Bill Blair told CBC that Ottawa is actively re-evaluating whether to follow through on its full purchase of 88 F-35s, or whether a mixed fleet with European fighters might better serve Canada’s needs.

This is staggering for several reasons:

• Canada already paid for the first 16 jets, which are scheduled for delivery in early 2026.
• In 2023, Canada signed a formal contract with Lockheed Martin after years of political indecision.
• The Royal Canadian Air Force had chosen the F-35 as its top choice, but now the government is openly considering other options.

Blair specifically raised the possibility of European-built jets, referencing the Saab Gripen (which finished second in Canada’s fighter selection process) and France’s Rafale, which has become an alternative for several non-U.S.-aligned nations.

His most striking comment? That Prime Minister Mark Carney has personally instructed him to explore whether some of these jets could be assembled in Canada. That’s an indirect reference to Sweden’s Gripen offer, which included domestic production and full technology transfer—something Lockheed Martin and the U.S. do not allow with the F-35.

Why These Moves Matter

Portugal’s exit and Canada’s reconsideration aren’t isolated incidents. They reflect a growing trend of U.S. allies questioning their defense dependence on Washington.

• If Portugal and Canada are already backing away from the F-35, who’s next?
• Could this cascade into a larger NATO revolt against U.S. defense hegemony?
• If Canada scales back or cancels its remaining F-35 orders, will Lockheed Martin retaliate through economic pressure?

This is no longer just a procurement debate. It’s about NATO’s future, U.S. credibility, and the balance of power in global defense production.

And with other NATO countries watching closely, it’s only a matter of time before the next domino falls.

Who’s Next? NATO Countries on the Fence

With Portugal’s exit and Canada’s reconsideration, the question now shifts: Which NATO allies might be next to scale back or abandon their F-35 purchases?

While some nations remain firmly committed to the program, others are reevaluating their options amid growing concerns over:

• U.S. political instability (Trump’s NATO hostility, potential trade penalties).
• Long-term dependence on Lockheed Martin and U.S.-controlled software.
• The rising appeal of European defense autonomy.

Here’s a country-by-country breakdown of who might be the next to reconsider the F-35.

Germany: The Next Big Defection?

Germany is the strongest candidate for an F-35 policy shift—and possibly the most consequential.

• In 2022, Germany reluctantly ordered 35 F-35s for its Luftwaffe, mainly to fulfill its nuclear-sharing role within NATO.
• However, the Scholz government has already signaled concerns about long-term U.S. reliability—especially after Trump’s latest NATO comments.
• Germany is deeply invested in European defense projects, including the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) with France and Spain.
• If Berlin pivots away from the F-35, it could trigger a chain reaction across Europe.

Germany has historically been hesitant to fully align itself with U.S. military strategies, and with rising EU defense integration, the F-35 might not be a long-term solution.

Chance of reconsidering F-35 purchase: 50-60%

Spain: A Key Swing Player

Spain was never fully convinced about the F-35 in the first place.

• It currently operates a mix of Eurofighters and AV-8B Harriers (for aircraft carrier use).
• The Spanish Air Force has been resistant to integrating U.S. fighters into its fleet, favoring European-built aircraft.
• Spain is part of the FCAS program with Germany and France—meaning long-term alignment with an all-European alternative is already planned.

Chance of reconsidering F-35 purchase: 60-70%

Belgium & Netherlands: Political Pressure Could Mount

Belgium and the Netherlands are both locked into F-35 purchases, but that doesn’t mean they’re completely immune to reconsideration.

• Belgium ordered 34 F-35s, but domestic political debates about defense spending could push for alternatives.
• The Netherlands has already taken delivery of F-35s, but public sentiment against Trump and U.S. dependence is rising.

While these countries are less likely to fully drop the program, they could push for partial reductions or policy changes—especially if Canada and Germany make moves first.

Chance of reconsidering F-35 purchase: 30-40%

Finland & Sweden: The Nordic Wild Cards

Finland and Sweden just joined NATO, meaning their defense strategy is still evolving.

• Finland recently chose the F-35 over the Gripen, but its deepening European defense ties could prompt a reevaluation.
• Sweden is NOT an F-35 buyer—instead, it produces its own Gripen fighter and could push for NATO allies to adopt it.
• If Canada switches to Gripen, it could legitimize the fighter as a viable NATO alternative.

Chance of reconsidering F-35 purchase: 40-50% (Finland), 0% (Sweden is not an F-35 buyer).

Other NATO Countries to Watch

• Italy – Historically invested in U.S. aircraft, but economic challenges might force budget cuts.
• Norway – Already flies the F-35, but could shift future orders to European alternatives.
• Poland – Strongly pro-U.S., unlikely to reconsider, but could reassess future aircraft purchases.

Why This Matters

If Germany, Spain, or another key NATO country backs away from the F-35, it would deal a serious blow to Lockheed Martin and further weaken U.S. defense influence over Europe.

• The F-35 program depends on mass purchases—if more NATO allies pull out, unit costs could rise significantly.
• A shift away from the F-35 would push NATO toward European-built fighters, accelerating the trend of defense independence from Washington.
• It would also further weaken NATO unity, as some countries remain U.S.-aligned, while others pivot toward European defense structures.

The question is no longer if NATO’s F-35 commitment will erode—it’s how quickly and who will be next to reconsider.

European Defense: The Rise of “Buy European”

The F-35 was supposed to be the gold standard of NATO air power, a common platform that would unify allied air forces under a single stealth fighter. But Portugal’s exit, Canada’s reconsideration, and rising skepticism in other NATO countries have given new momentum to a long-standing European ambition: breaking free from U.S. defense dependence.

For years, European leaders—particularly in France, Germany, and Sweden—have been pushing for a stronger, more self-sufficient European defense industry. Now, as Trump threatens NATO’s future and allies rethink their reliance on U.S. weapons, the opportunity to accelerate this shift has never been greater.

Could we be witnessing the start of a major realignment in NATO’s fighter jet strategy?

France’s Rafale: The Leading European Alternative?

For decades, France has been the loudest advocate for a Europe-first defense strategy, often resisting U.S. military dominance. The Dassault Rafale fighter jet, a 4.5-generation multi-role aircraft, has gained major traction among non-U.S.-aligned nations, including India, Egypt, Greece, and Indonesia.

Now, with NATO allies questioning their F-35 commitments, France could push harder for European partners to adopt the Rafale as an alternative.

• Portugal and Canada’s reconsideration could open the door for France to pitch the Rafale as a more independent alternative with no U.S.-controlled software, maintenance, or kill switches.
• France’s nuclear-capable variant makes it particularly attractive for countries like Germany, which need a deterrent role within NATO.
• Macron has aggressively promoted the Rafale to NATO allies, arguing that depending on U.S. fighter jets makes European air forces vulnerable to Washington’s political instability.

Could the Rafale become NATO’s Plan B if the F-35 continues to lose buyers?

Likelihood of Rafale benefiting from NATO F-35 dropouts: HIGH

Sweden’s Gripen: A More Affordable, Independent Option?

Another major challenger to the F-35’s dominance is Sweden’s Saab Gripen. Unlike the F-35, which relies on U.S.-controlled maintenance and software updates, the Gripen is designed for full user independence—a selling point that has become increasingly attractive as Trump threatens NATO cohesion.

Why Gripen Could Gain Ground:

• Canada was already offered the Gripen with full technology transfer & local assembly—which Ottawa is now reconsidering.
• Gripen is cheaper to maintain and operate than the F-35, making it more appealing for nations with budget constraints (like Portugal).
• If Canada pivots to Gripen, it would legitimize it as a NATO-friendly alternative, potentially influencing other buyers.

The big question: Will Canada take the leap and become the first NATO country to formally adopt Gripen instead of the F-35?

Likelihood of Gripen benefiting from NATO F-35 dropouts: MODERATE-HIGH

Germany & Spain’s FCAS: The Long-Term European Solution

While France and Sweden offer immediate alternatives, Europe is also developing its own next-generation fighter jet—the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a joint project between France, Germany, and Spain.

Key Takeaways on FCAS:

• Designed to replace the Eurofighter and Rafale by the 2040s.
• 100% European-made, with no U.S. involvement.
• If NATO allies back away from the F-35, FCAS could gain more funding and political momentum.

The main challenge? FCAS won’t be operational until at least 2040, meaning nations currently reconsidering the F-35 need an interim solution—which could boost Rafale and Gripen sales in the short term.

Likelihood of FCAS benefiting from NATO F-35 dropouts: LONG-TERM HIGH

How Far Will the “Buy European” Shift Go?

With NATO allies growing wary of U.S. defense control, the push for European alternatives is stronger than ever. If Canada, Portugal, or Germany pivot away from the F-35, it could accelerate a larger shift toward European-built fighters like the Rafale and Gripen.

Key Trends to Watch:

• If Germany delays or cancels some of its F-35 orders, it will give massive momentum to the "Buy European" movement.
• If Canada pivots to Gripen, it legitimizes non-U.S. fighters for NATO use.
• If more NATO allies scale back purchases, Lockheed Martin could be forced to cut F-35 production, making the jet even more expensive.

Could this be the beginning of the end for the F-35’s monopoly over NATO air forces?

The next 6-12 months will decide.

The U.S. Response & The Future of the F-35 Program

The F-35 was never just a fighter jet—it was a strategic tool for U.S. influence over NATO and allied air forces. By tying nations into the Lockheed Martin ecosystem, Washington ensured that its allies remained dependent on American-controlled software, maintenance, and upgrades.

But with Portugal canceling its order, Canada reconsidering, and European alternatives gaining traction, the United States and Lockheed Martin now face a serious challenge. If more NATO countries start looking elsewhere, the entire F-35 program—and U.S. defense dominance over its allies—could be at risk.

So how will Washington react?

Will the U.S. Pressure NATO Allies to Stay In?

Historically, the U.S. has used both diplomatic and economic pressure to keep allies from abandoning American-made military hardware. Will Washington take the same approach with the F-35?

Possible U.S. Responses:

• Political Pressure – The Pentagon could warn that dropping the F-35 weakens NATO interoperability, framing it as a security risk rather than a financial decision.
• Economic Leverage – The U.S. could threaten trade penalties or defense funding cuts for countries reconsidering their purchases.
• Lockheed Martin Retaliation – Countries scaling back F-35 orders could see delays, cost hikes, or restrictions on spare parts and software updates.
• Trump Factor – Trump could try to force F-35 buyers into an "America First" loyalty test, punishing defectors with even more tariffs or security downgrades.

If Canada or Germany backs away from the F-35, expect major U.S. pushback—Washington won’t let its allies walk away easily.

💸 What Happens if More Countries Exit? The F-35 Cost Spiral

The F-35 program relies on mass orders from NATO and U.S. allies to keep unit costs manageable. If countries start canceling or scaling back purchases, it could trigger a cost spiral that makes the F-35 even more expensive.

Key Risks if More NATO Countries Exit:

• Unit Costs Will Rise – The more countries leave, the fewer planes Lockheed Martin produces, making each jet more expensive for remaining buyers.
• Sustainment Costs Could Skyrocket – With fewer buyers, F-35 spare parts, upgrades, and maintenance costs will increase.
• Interoperability Becomes a Problem – If half of NATO operates F-35s and the other half switches to European jets, it could fracture NATO’s air power strategy.
• The Program’s Future Could Be in Jeopardy – If Germany, Spain, or Italy follow Portugal and Canada in scaling back orders, it could force Lockheed Martin to reduce production, making the program unsustainable.

Right now, the F-35’s future is on shaky ground. If two or three more NATO countries follow Portugal’s lead, it could trigger an irreversible shift.

🛑 Could the F-35 Become the Next Eurofighter?

History has seen similar defense projects collapse due to cost overruns and shifting political priorities. A key example? The Eurofighter Typhoon, which was once envisioned as NATO’s standard airframe but ultimately saw limited adoption, high costs, and mixed success.

Could the F-35 be heading down the same path?

• If costs rise too much, nations may be forced to reduce their orders or look for alternatives.
• If Trump alienates more NATO members, some may see European-built jets as a safer long-term investment.
• If the “Buy European” movement gains momentum, it could drastically reduce U.S. dominance over NATO air power.

Right now, the F-35’s future depends on whether Washington can hold NATO allies in line. If it fails, the program—and the entire U.S. military-industrial dominance over NATO—could be at risk.

🔎 What to Watch Next

In the coming months, the fate of the F-35 will depend on three key factors:

1. Canada’s Final Decision – If Ottawa fully exits the program or opts for a mixed fleet, it will legitimize Gripen and Rafale as NATO-friendly alternatives.
2. Germany’s Next Move – If Berlin delays or reduces its F-35 order, it could trigger a chain reaction across European NATO members.
3. How the U.S. Reacts – If Washington punishes defectors (with economic threats or political pressure), it could either scare nations back into compliance—or push them further away.

The next 6-12 months will determine whether the F-35 remains NATO’s dominant fighter—or whether we’re entering the beginning of the end.

What This Means for Canada’s Future Military Strategy

Canada’s reconsideration of the F-35 is bigger than just fighter jets—it’s about breaking free from U.S. defense dependence. The debate is no longer about which aircraft is better; it’s about whether Canada should continue outsourcing its security to Washington or take steps toward a more independent, sovereign military strategy.

If Canada scales back its F-35 purchase, it will signal a fundamental shift in how the country approaches defense. So what are the alternatives?

Option 1: A Mixed Fleet (F-35 + European Fighters)

One of the most likely scenarios is that Canada keeps its first 16 F-35s but pivots the rest of the order to Gripen or Rafale.

Why This Makes Sense:

• Reduced Dependence on U.S. Maintenance & Software Controls – A mixed fleet weakens Lockheed Martin’s monopoly over Canadian air power.
• F-35s for NATO Interoperability, Gripen/Rafale for Sovereignty – Canada could use F-35s for NATO operations while keeping European-built fighters for domestic defense.
• Cheaper Long-Term Maintenance Costs – Gripen and Rafale cost far less per flight hour than the F-35, easing Canada’s military budget.

This scenario would allow Canada to maintain some U.S. ties while hedging against future American instability—especially if Trump returns to power.

🏭 Option 2: Build More Fighter Jets in Canada

Blair’s reference to assembling jets in Canada suggests that Ottawa is considering a domestic defense industry boost. If Canada cancels part of its F-35 order, could it invest in local aircraft production?

What This Would Look Like:

• Saab Gripen offered domestic assembly and tech transfer—a deal Canada did not get with the F-35.
• France’s Rafale could be built under Canadian contracts, as it has been in India.
• Canada could restart its own aerospace industry instead of relying on U.S. imports.

The downside? Building a defense industry takes years, and Canada would still need foreign expertise for production.

Is Canada ready to take that leap?

🛡 Option 3: A Total Defense Shift Toward European & Indo-Pacific Partners

If the Trump administration further alienates allies, could Canada pivot away from U.S. defense alignment entirely?

• The Finnish Model: Canada has already expressed interest in adopting Finland’s Total Defense strategy, which prioritizes homeland defense and civil-military readiness.
• Closer Ties with France & the UK: France and Britain both operate nuclear-powered navies and independent air forces—could Canada align more closely with European defense structures?
• Indo-Pacific Pivot: Australia has diversified its defense partnerships beyond the U.S., buying European submarines and missiles. Canada could do the same.

This wouldn’t mean leaving NATO, but it could mean Canada stops depending on the U.S. as its primary security partner.

Is Canada prepared to reorient its entire defense policy?

🚨 The Bigger Question: Is This the Start of Canada’s Break from U.S. Military Dependence?

The F-35 debate is about more than fighter jets—it’s about the future of Canadian sovereignty.

• If Canada cancels or reduces its F-35 orders, it would be one of the first major breaks from U.S. defense procurement in decades.
• If more NATO allies follow, we could see a larger shift away from U.S. military control over Europe and Canada.
• If Trump maintains his treats, Canada may have no choice but to look elsewhere for defense partnerships.

This is Canada’s moment of decision. The F-35 was once seen as inevitable. Now? The future is wide open.

The next few months will determine whether Canada stays locked into U.S. dependence—or whether it forges a new path.

Conclusion: The F-35 Crossroads – NATO’s Fighter Jet Future

The F-35 was supposed to be the cornerstone of NATO’s air power, a next-generation stealth fighter that would unite allied forces under a single, interoperable platform. But with Portugal canceling its order, Canada reconsidering, and growing skepticism among European allies, the jet that was once seen as inevitable is now at a crossroads.

This is no longer just a question of fighter jets—it’s a question of geopolitical realignment.

🔑 Three Key Takeaways from the F-35 Crisis

1. Canada’s Decision Could Set a Precedent
   • If Canada scales back its F-35 order or pivots to a mixed fleet, it legitimizes alternatives like the Saab Gripen and Dassault Rafale within NATO.
   • Other countries—Germany, Spain, Belgium—may follow suit.
2. A Shift Away from U.S. Military Dependence?
   • The F-35 is more than a fighter jet—it represents U.S. dominance over NATO military procurement.
   • If more nations move toward European-built aircraft, it signals a long-term shift in NATO defense strategy.
3. The Trump Factor: NATO Allies Don’t Trust the U.S.
   • Trump’s aggressive rhetoric against NATO is forcing allies to rethink their military reliance on Washington.
   • If Trump cuts NATO funding, imposes tariffs, or pressures allies to “Buy American,” it could accelerate the F-35 crisis.

⏳ What Happens Next? The 6-12 Month Outlook

The next six to twelve months will determine whether the F-35 remains NATO’s dominant fighter—or whether we are witnessing the beginning of its decline.

🚨 The Three Biggest Things to Watch:

1. Canada’s Final Decision – If Ottawa announces a reduction in its F-35 purchase or a pivot toward Gripen or Rafale, it will be a major shock to the U.S. defense industry.
2. Germany & Spain’s Next Move – If Berlin or Madrid delay, reduce, or reconsider their F-35 orders, it will fuel a larger European shift away from U.S. arms.
3. How the U.S. Reacts – If Washington punishes defectors (with economic threats or diplomatic pressure), it could either force allies back in line or push them further away.

🛑 Is This the Beginning of the End for the F-35’s NATO Dominance?

For now, the F-35 remains the most advanced fighter in NATO’s arsenal—but it is no longer the uncontested choice.

• If more countries follow Portugal and Canada in reconsidering their purchases, the F-35’s costs will rise, making it less sustainable.
• If European alternatives gain momentum, NATO could split between U.S.-aligned forces and an independent European defense structure.
• If Trump continues alienating allies, the U.S. defense industry could lose long-term influence over NATO air power.

What once seemed like an inevitable fighter jet monopoly is now facing real challenges. Whether the F-35 weathers this storm or collapses under political and economic pressure will be decided in the coming months.

One thing is certain: The future of NATO’s air power is no longer set in stone.