Portugal Cancels F-35 Order Over Trump Fears – NATO and European Defense Impact

Introduction: Portugal Cancels F-35 Order – What It Means for NATO and European Defense

Portugal just made a major statement about its defense future: no F-35s. The country has officially backed out of plans to purchase Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation fighter jet, citing concerns over geopolitical uncertainty, technological control, and shifting European defense priorities. This decision, announced by outgoing Defense Minister Nuno Melo, marks a significant moment in NATO’s military landscape—one that raises questions about the long-term reliability of U.S. defense commitments and the future of European military autonomy in a context where several flashpoints for a war between Russia and NATO exist in Europe.

At the heart of Portugal’s decision is a growing distrust in the predictability of the United States as a security partner. With former U.S. President Donald Trump openly questioning NATO’s collective defense obligations and European leaders scrambling to hedge against potential American isolationism, Portugal’s move signals a broader reassessment of European defense policy all the while France has already dispatched a nuclear submarine to Halifax, Canada. Melo specifically pointed to concerns about relying too heavily on U.S.-made defense technology at a time when Washington’s strategic priorities seem increasingly uncertain and German defense contractor Rheinmetall AG is considering significant expansion of its production capability.

Adding to the unease are fresh reports suggesting that F-35s may come with a hidden vulnerability—a so-called “kill switch” that could allow the U.S. to disable or restrict access to the aircraft remotely. While Lockheed Martin has denied such claims, the speculation alone has fueled anxieties across European defense ministries, particularly in Germany, where officials have publicly questioned whether European nations should trust American weapons systems.

Portugal’s decision raises several key questions. Will other NATO members follow suit? What does this mean for the future of the F-35 program in Europe? And is this the latest sign that Europe is finally moving toward greater defense independence? As Portugal reconsiders its options—potentially looking at European-made alternatives like the Eurofighter Typhoon or Dassault Rafale—the rest of NATO will be watching closely.

This article breaks down the reasons behind Portugal’s move, its wider implications for European defense, and what it could mean for the future of NATO airpower.

Background: Portugal’s F-35 Plans and Defense Needs

Portugal has long been in the market for a next-generation fighter jet to replace its aging fleet of F-16s. As one of NATO’s smaller air forces, Portugal operates a modest but strategically significant number of aircraft, primarily used for territorial defense, NATO missions, and air policing operations over the Atlantic. The country’s F-16s, first acquired in the 1990s, have undergone multiple upgrades but are reaching the end of their operational life.

For years, the F-35 Lightning II was seen as the natural successor. As NATO’s premier fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 offers stealth capabilities, advanced avionics, and seamless interoperability with allied forces. Portugal’s initial defense modernization plans included acquiring a limited number of F-35s, with reports suggesting a potential order of 12-15 aircraft. The purchase would have been in line with similar acquisitions by other European NATO members, including Denmark, Finland, and Poland, all of which have opted for the F-35 to standardize with the alliance’s air fleet.

Budget Considerations and Timeline

The cost of an F-35 acquisition was a major factor in Portugal’s deliberations. Each jet comes with a price tag of approximately $80 million, but the real financial burden lies in maintenance and operational costs. The full lifecycle cost of an F-35 fleet—including sustainment, upgrades, and logistics—can run into the billions over several decades.

While Portugal’s defense budget has seen increases in recent years, the financial strain of an F-35 program remained a concern. The Portuguese Air Force had hoped for NATO support or cost-sharing agreements similar to those offered to other smaller member states, but no definitive financial plan had been secured. Additionally, Portugal was expected to start retiring its F-16s in the early 2030s, which meant a replacement decision had to be made soon.

Strategic Importance for NATO

Portugal’s air force plays a critical role in NATO’s southern flank and Atlantic security. With a vast exclusive economic zone and maritime responsibilities stretching across the North Atlantic, Portugal’s fighter jets are essential for monitoring airspace and responding to potential incursions. The country has also been involved in Baltic Air Policing missions, reinforcing NATO’s eastern border in the face of Russian aggression.

For NATO, having Portugal onboard with the F-35 program would have ensured another seamless contributor to the alliance’s air defense network. The aircraft’s advanced data-sharing capabilities allow NATO forces to operate in a more integrated and effective manner, making the F-35 a preferred choice for interoperability. Portugal’s decision to back out now raises concerns over whether it will pursue an alternative that maintains this level of integration or opt for a different platform with less connectivity to NATO’s broader air strategy.

With Portugal now officially out of the F-35 program, attention turns to why the decision was made and what the country will do next.

Why Portugal Canceled the F-35 Order

Portugal’s decision to walk away from the F-35 program isn’t just about budget constraints or defense priorities—it’s a broader reflection of shifting European attitudes toward U.S. military dominance. While cost considerations were certainly a factor, the underlying reasons for canceling the order stem from deeper geopolitical concerns, technological anxieties, and a growing push for European strategic autonomy.

1. Geopolitical Uncertainty and Trump’s Influence

Outgoing Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo made it clear that his government is increasingly wary of relying too heavily on the United States for its national security needs. While he didn’t explicitly blame former U.S. President Donald Trump, his remarks strongly hinted at concerns about America’s shifting political landscape and NATO’s long-term stability in a context where Trump has forced a reckoning in NATO by threatening to annex Canada all the while the United States is already conducting disinformation operations relative to Canada's 2025 Election.

Trump’s past statements questioning NATO’s Article 5 commitment—the foundation of collective defense—have shaken many European allies. In recent months, Trump has doubled down on his position, stating that he might not defend certain NATO countries if they fail to meet their financial obligations. For Portugal, a country that has historically relied on strong transatlantic ties, this unpredictability makes any major U.S. defense procurement a political risk.

Melo underscored this point by stating:

“The predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account.”

This statement is a direct acknowledgment that Portugal—and by extension, other European nations—are reevaluating their dependence on U.S.-made defense systems as they evaluate what would happen if Trump pulled the United States out of NATO?

Portugal’s move mirrors a broader European shift away from automatic alignment with U.S. military policy. While Trump’s rhetoric is a significant factor, there are also concerns that Washington’s defense priorities are increasingly pivoting toward the Indo-Pacific, leaving Europe as a secondary theater. For Portugal, investing billions in an American fighter jet with long-term U.S. political uncertainty was simply too great a risk.

2. "Kill Switch" Concerns and Technological Sovereignty

Beyond geopolitical considerations, there is an emerging fear that U.S.-made defense technology may come with hidden vulnerabilities—ones that could limit European military autonomy.

Reports have surfaced in Germany suggesting that the F-35 may contain a so-called “kill switch”—a feature that would allow the U.S. to remotely disable or restrict access to certain aircraft functions. While Lockheed Martin and the U.S. Department of Defense have strongly denied these claims, the very possibility of such a backdoor has raised alarms in European defense circles.

Germany, in particular, has been vocal about this issue. According to Euronews, German officials are concerned that the U.S. could block critical software updates or even prevent European operators from using certain capabilities without American authorization. The idea that a European nation could pay billions for a fighter jet but remain dependent on U.S. oversight is increasingly unpalatable.

Portugal, like Germany, appears to have taken these warnings seriously. While no official statement has confirmed that this was a deciding factor in the cancellation, the rising discourse around technological sovereignty in Europe suggests that it played a role.

This concern extends beyond the F-35. Several European nations are now questioning their reliance on American-made military hardware, with discussions intensifying about investing in European-designed alternatives that do not come with the risk of foreign control.

3. Strategic Shift Toward European Defense Capabilities

Portugal’s withdrawal from the F-35 program is part of a wider trend among European nations to prioritize regional defense cooperation over reliance on U.S. technology. With growing uncertainty over America’s NATO commitment, European leaders are increasingly advocating for independent defense projects that reduce reliance on Washington.

Several European-built fighter jets are now being considered as alternatives to the F-35:

• Eurofighter Typhoon (Built by a consortium including Germany, Spain, Italy, and the UK)
• Dassault Rafale (France’s premier fighter, also operated by multiple European allies)
• Saab Gripen E (A cost-effective, highly capable Swedish-designed fighter)

Each of these options would allow Portugal to align more closely with European defense initiatives, rather than becoming overly dependent on the U.S.

Furthermore, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the Tempest program—both European-led next-generation fighter projects—are gaining momentum as potential alternatives to the F-35. Portugal may be looking to position itself within these initiatives rather than committing to a costly, American-controlled platform.

This shift is part of a larger movement within the European Union’s Strategic Compass, which aims to create a stronger, more self-sufficient European defense infrastructure. While the F-35 remains the dominant NATO aircraft, Portugal’s decision signals that some European nations are ready to explore different paths.

The Bigger Picture: A NATO

Realignment?

Portugal’s decision to cancel the F-35 order isn’t just about one country’s defense budget—it’s a reflection of larger strategic tensions within NATO. As more European nations question the wisdom of relying on American defense technology, we may be witnessing the beginning of a fundamental realignment in transatlantic military cooperation.

With the F-35 program already facing scrutiny over cost overruns, software issues, and maintenance challenges, Portugal’s exit could encourage other nations to reconsider their own commitments. If enough European allies follow suit, this could significantly impact Lockheed Martin, U.S. defense policy, and NATO’s overall air strategy.

Portugal may be the first to formally cancel its F-35 order—but it likely won’t be the last.

Implications for NATO and European Defense Strategy

Portugal’s withdrawal from the F-35 program has significant ramifications—not just for its own air force, but for NATO’s broader strategic posture and the future of European defense. This move is part of a growing trend among European nations reconsidering their reliance on U.S.-made military hardware and seeking alternative paths to defense modernization.

1. A Growing European Trend?

Portugal is not alone in questioning whether the F-35 is the right choice for European air forces. While many NATO members have already committed to the aircraft, there is increasing debate about its long-term viability, cost, and security risks.

• Germany: Officials have raised concerns over potential U.S. software restrictions on the F-35 and have explored increasing their commitment to the Eurofighter program instead.
• France: Has consistently rejected the F-35 in favor of its domestically produced Dassault Rafale, arguing that European nations should support European defense industries.
• Spain: Has delayed a decision on the F-35, opting to modernize its Eurofighter fleet instead.
• Poland & Finland: Both recently purchased F-35s, but defense experts in these countries have acknowledged the risks of relying on a single U.S.-controlled system.

Portugal’s move could embolden other European nations to reconsider their defense procurement strategies, particularly as concerns over U.S. political instability grow. If Trump or another unpredictable leader returns to the White House, the risk of supply chain disruptions, policy shifts, or outright export restrictions on U.S. weapons becomes even more real.

This aligns with a broader push for European defense independence, a goal that has gained traction since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and Trump's earlier threats to NATO. The EU’s Strategic Compass initiative, which aims to build a stronger European security framework, could accelerate as more nations look for alternatives to U.S.-dominated defense programs.

2. Impact on Lockheed Martin and the U.S. Defense Industry

Portugal’s decision is a small but symbolic blow to Lockheed Martin and the overall F-35 program. While a single country backing out does not threaten the aircraft’s dominance, it raises questions about future orders from NATO allies.

The F-35 remains the world’s most advanced multirole fighter, but it has faced ongoing criticism:

• Cost Overruns: The F-35 program has ballooned to over $1.7 trillion in lifetime costs, making it one of the most expensive military projects in history.
• Maintenance Challenges: The jet has experienced software bugs, spare parts shortages, and logistical delays, leading to higher-than-expected operating costs.
• Overdependence on U.S. Support: Countries operating the F-35 must rely on Lockheed Martin for software updates, repairs, and access to mission-critical systems.

Portugal’s exit may not be financially significant for Lockheed Martin, but it adds to the growing perception that the F-35 is not a one-size-fits-all solution for NATO allies. If more nations begin to question the economic and strategic risks of the aircraft, it could eventually impact future sales and lead to stronger competition from European and non-American alternatives.

3. What This Means for NATO’s Air Superiority

One of NATO’s biggest strengths is interoperability—the ability of allied forces to operate together using common technology, tactics, and intelligence-sharing networks. The F-35 is designed to be a standardized NATO fighter, ensuring seamless coordination across allied air forces.

With Portugal opting out of the F-35 program, it raises concerns about potential fragmentation within NATO’s air capabilities:

• If Portugal chooses a European-built aircraft instead (such as the Eurofighter or Rafale), it may require different logistics, training, and support infrastructure, complicating NATO joint operations.
• The lack of stealth capabilities in non-F-35 alternatives could create operational gaps in NATO’s ability to penetrate advanced air defenses.
• Portugal’s naval air component also faces uncertainty, as the F-35B was considered a potential option for future carrier-based operations.

However, NATO is not entirely reliant on the F-35, and Portugal’s withdrawal does not significantly weaken the alliance’s overall combat power. The key question is whether other nations follow Portugal’s lead, which could trigger a broader reassessment of NATO’s air strategy.

If European countries continue to express distrust in U.S. defense policies, we may see an acceleration of projects like the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the Tempest program, both of which aim to develop a European sixth-generation fighter as a long-term alternative to the F-35.

Could This Be a Wake-Up Call for European Defense?

Portugal’s decision to cancel its F-35 order is not just about cost or logistics—it’s a statement about the shifting balance of power in global defense relations. It underscores growing concerns about U.S. political stability, technological control, and Europe’s ability to act independently in defense matters.

The next few years will be critical in determining whether this is an isolated case or the beginning of a larger trend. If more European nations start questioning the F-35’s role in their air forces, NATO could face a fundamental realignment—one that forces a deeper discussion about European defense sovereignty and transatlantic military cooperation.

For now, Portugal has made its decision. What remains to be seen is who follows next.

Conclusion: A Wake-Up Call for European Defense?

Portugal’s decision to walk away from the F-35 is more than just a procurement shift—it’s a clear signal that Europe is rethinking its reliance on U.S. military technology. With geopolitical uncertainty on the rise, concerns about U.S. political stability growing, and new questions about the operational control of American-made fighter jets, this move may be the first domino in a larger European reassessment of its defense priorities.

The F-35 was supposed to be NATO’s universal fighter, ensuring that all allied air forces could operate as one. But Portugal’s exit highlights the growing reality that not all members see this as an advantage anymore. With concerns over the cost, security, and long-term autonomy of U.S. military hardware, nations like Portugal are increasingly looking for European-built alternatives that do not leave them dependent on Washington.

This also raises a critical question for NATO’s future: Does the alliance need a more diverse airpower strategy? If more nations follow Portugal’s lead and opt for Rafales, Eurofighters, or Gripens instead of the F-35, NATO could end up with a fragmented air fleet—forcing new conversations about standardization versus sovereignty.

For Lockheed Martin, this isn’t an immediate crisis. The F-35 still dominates global fighter jet sales, and many European nations remain locked into their procurement deals. But if Portugal’s decision starts a trend, it could push more countries to reconsider their contracts before they’re finalized—or to delay future purchases in favor of upcoming European fighter programs like FCAS or Tempest.

What Happens Next?

Portugal now faces a critical decision: What fighter jet will replace its aging F-16s? While the country has yet to announce its next move, the most likely candidates are European-built platforms such as the Eurofighter Typhoon or Dassault Rafale. A choice like this would align Portugal with nations that are prioritizing European defense independence, further reinforcing the divide between NATO’s U.S.-centric procurement model and the EU’s push for its own military capabilities.

Meanwhile, other NATO nations will be watching closely. If Portugal can walk away from the F-35 without major repercussions, it could encourage others to do the same. Countries like Spain, Germany, and even Poland—which have all expressed varying degrees of skepticism about the program—might take this as a cue to re-evaluate their own commitments.

In the broader picture, this may be the moment that accelerates Europe’s move toward military self-sufficiency. With tensions between the U.S. and its NATO allies growing, and with concerns over Washington’s future defense priorities, the push for a European-led fighter jet program could gain serious momentum.

Portugal may just be the first to opt out. The real question is: Who’s next?