Prime Rogue Inc

Category Weather

CFB Wainwright Explosion (October 17, 2026), Canadian Armed Forces, Department of National Defence, Environment, Event Reconstruction, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), Weather

Another sign pointing away from gas: what satellites and the regulator show about CFB Wainwright’s gas lines

"Forecast at 4:30 a.m., out of time by 3:23 p.m.: CFB Wainwright fire timeline","Timeline: Environment Canada forecast the wind shift at 4:30 a.m.; in the Range 2 area, the escape window closed between about 3:18 and 3:23 p.m. on our model.","Environment Canada forecast the wind shift 11 hours ahead. On our model, troops in the Range 2 area had about two to seven minutes to get out. Graphic: Kevin Duska Jr. (Prime Rogue Inc.), CC BY-NC 4.0.","Timeline of Oct. 17, 2026 at CFB Wainwright: 4:30 a.m. forecast of west winds gusting to 80 km/h; 12:17 p.m. Landsat detection; Extreme fire danger; 2:49 p.m. fire moving away from Range 2; 3:16 p.m. 82 km/h gust; modelled escape window closing 3:18-3:23 p.m.; fire reaching Range 2 about 3:21 p.m. Sources: ECCC, NRCan CWFIS, NASA FIRMS, NOAA GOES-18.",CFB Wainwright fire; CFB Wainwright; C Company; 3rd Battalion PPCLI; Canadian Armed Forces; Department of National Defence; Alberta wildfire; OSINT; Authentic Stoic Stress Test; Prime Rogue; wind shift; forecast; timeline; escape window

Another sign pointing away from gas: what satellites and the regulator show about CFB Wainwright’s gas lines Kevin J.S. Duska Jr. · Prime Rogue · Calgary, AB · Oct. 24, 2026 CFB Wainwright Working model v2.1 The night of the…

CFB Wainwright Explosion (October 17, 2026), Alberta, Canadian Armed Forces, Department of National Defence, Event Reconstruction, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), Weather

What Happened to C Company: How a Forecast Wind Shift Trapped Soldiers at CFB Wainwright

Timeline: Environment Canada forecast the wind shift at 4:30 a.m.; in the Range 2 area, the escape window closed between about 3:18 and 3:23 p.m. on our model.

What Happened to C Company: How a Forecast Wind Shift Trapped Soldiers at CFB Wainwright Kevin J.S. Duska Jr. & Margot Lanihin | Prime Rogue Inc | Calgary, AB | October 22, 2026 Six public tests of our analysis, one…

CFB Wainwright Explosion (October 17, 2026), Alberta, Canada, Canadian Armed Forces, Canadian Domestic Politics, Department of National Defence, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Explainer, Technical Report, Weather, Wind

How we found the 82 km/h CFB Wainwright gust: a step-by-step guide to Environment Canada’s wind data

Header graphic reading "How we found the 82 km/h gust: a step-by-step guide to reading Environment Canada's raw wind data," beside a bar chart of hourly wind at the CFB Wainwright weather station with the 82 km/h gust at 3:16 p.m. marked in gold.

How we found the CFB Wainwright 82 km/h gust: a step-by-step guide to Environment Canada’s wind data Kevin J.S. Duska Jr. | Prime Rogue Inc | Calgary, AB | October 21, 2026 The strongest wind recorded near the CFB Wainwright…