The Vatican’s Next Power Struggle: Who Will Be the Next Pope and What Happens Now That Francis Has Died?

Introduction: The End of an Era?

For 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide, it is a time to mourn as the Pope has passed on April 21, 2025. As they grieve, they also wonder, who will be the next pope?

With the 86-year-old pontiff having battled health issues, including hospitalizations for respiratory infections and kidney failure, the Vatican was braced for a historic transition of power. But what happens when the pope dies? And how is a pope elected in today’s deeply divided Catholic Church?

This isn’t just about religious tradition. The election of the next pope is a high-stakes geopolitical event that will shape global Catholicism for decades. Behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, cardinals will battle over the future of the Church:

• Will the next pope continue Pope Francis’ progressive reforms?
• Or will the Vatican shift back to conservative doctrine, reversing key policies on LGBTQ+ rights, clerical celibacy, and financial transparency?
• Which cardinal has the best chance of becoming the next pope?

In this deep dive, we’ll break down everything you need to know about the coming papal succession crisis—from the secretive process of how a pope is elected to the Vatican’s strict protocols for when the pope dies. Most importantly, we’ll analyze the top candidates and predict who will be the next pope in this historic transition.

The Catholic Church stands at a crossroads. The only question left is: who will take the throne of St. Peter next?

🔹 Read on for a full breakdown of the next papal election, the Vatican’s power struggles, and the frontrunners to replace Pope Francis. 🔹

The Death of a Pope: What Happens When the Pope Dies?

The Vatican is obsessed with tradition, secrecy, and ritual, and nothing demonstrates this more than what happens when a pope dies. The process is steeped in centuries-old customs, combining religious solemnity with raw political maneuvering. When Pope Francis eventually dies, the Catholic Church will enter a period of transition unlike any other institution in the world.

But make no mistake—this isn’t just about mourning. The death of a pope is a power vacuum, and every Vatican faction will be preparing their next move. So what happens step by step when the pope dies?

Step 1: The Vatican Confirms the Pope’s Death

The moment the pope dies, the first thing that happens is official confirmation. In the past, the Camerlengo (the Vatican’s chief administrator) would tap the pope’s forehead three times with a silver hammer, calling his name each time. If there was no response, he was declared dead.

Today, the process is less theatrical but still deeply ritualistic. The Camerlengo:

• Confirms the death through modern medical verification.
• Announces it to the Vatican hierarchy before the public.
• Secures the Pope’s Fisherman’s Ring (a key papal symbol) by destroying it with a ceremonial hammer.

The destruction of the Fisherman’s Ring is critical because it prevents anyone from forging official papal documents after his death.

Step 2: Vatican Power Goes Into "Sede Vacante" (The Empty Throne Period)

From the moment the pope dies, the Catholic Church enters a unique period called “Sede Vacante” (The Empty Seat). During this time:

• All Vatican departments are immediately shut down—except for essential services.
• The Camerlengo takes control, overseeing the Vatican until a new pope is elected.
• The Swiss Guard stands down—because they only serve the reigning pope.

This period is one of the most politically unstable moments in the Church because there is no ultimate authority until the next pope is chosen. Every Vatican faction—progressives, conservatives, Jesuits, Opus Dei, and regional power players—starts making moves behind closed doors.

Step 3: The Pope’s Funeral and the "Novendiales" (Nine Days of Mourning)

Once the pope’s death is confirmed, the Vatican prepares for his funeral, which traditionally happens four to six days later.

• The body is embalmed and placed in St. Peter’s Basilica for public viewing.
• A formal state funeral is held, attended by world leaders.
• The pope is buried in a triple-layered coffin—wood, lead, and another wooden outer layer—to symbolize his role as the “shepherd of the Church.”

After the burial, the Church enters a nine-day period of mourning, known as the Novendiales. But this isn’t just about religious ceremony—this is when Vatican politics go into overdrive.

Behind the scenes, cardinals are already meeting in informal groups—the Vatican’s version of backroom political deals—deciding who they will back in the upcoming election.

Step 4: The College of Cardinals Prepares for the Papal Conclave

As the mourning period ends, all attention shifts to the next stage: the election of the next pope.

• The Vatican calls in all voting-age cardinals (under 80 years old).
• The Sistine Chapel is prepared, and strict secrecy measures are put in place.
• The Camerlengo officially seals the papal apartments, signaling the end of one era and the beginning of another.

At this point, the Vatican is no longer just honoring the past pope—it is preparing to choose the future of the Catholic Church.

What Happens Next? The Battle for the Throne Begins

With the pope dead and the Vatican in Sede Vacante, the real power struggle begins. The Catholic Church is at a crossroads—will it elect a progressive reformer, a conservative hardliner, or an unexpected dark horse?

The next section breaks down exactly how a pope is elected and why this particular election could be the most politically charged in modern history.

How Is a Pope Elected? The Conclave’s Ancient, Secretive Process

For nearly 1,000 years, the Catholic Church has chosen its leader behind locked doors, away from prying eyes and political interference. The papal conclave is one of the most secretive and ritual-heavy elections in the world. It’s where alliances are formed, backroom deals are struck, and history is made.

But how is a pope elected? And in today’s divided Church, will the next conclave be a smooth transition—or a battlefield?

Step 1: Who Gets to Vote? The College of Cardinals

Not just anyone can elect the next pope—only cardinals under 80 years old have the privilege.

• Right now, 132 cardinals are eligible to vote.
• The majority of electors were appointed by Pope Francis, meaning they lean more progressive.
• But conservative factions still hold significant power, especially in Europe and the U.S.

This sets up a deeply divided conclave, with cardinals split between continuing Francis' reforms or rolling back progressive policies.

Step 2: Locking the Cardinals Inside the Sistine Chapel

Once the mourning period ends, the electoral process begins.

• The cardinals gather at St. Peter’s Basilica for a final mass before heading to the Sistine Chapel.
• Once inside, the doors are locked. No phones, no outside communication—complete isolation.
• The famous words "Extra Omnes!" ("Everyone Out!") are spoken, and the world waits.

From this moment on, the cardinals can only communicate with each other, and they will not leave until a new pope is chosen.

Step 3: The Secret Ballot Voting Process

Here’s how each round of voting works:

1. Each cardinal writes the name of their chosen candidate on a paper ballot.
2. The ballots are collected and counted manually.
3. To win, a candidate must secure two-thirds of the vote.
4. If no one reaches the threshold, the process repeats up to four times per day.

The first rounds are usually symbolic, allowing different factions to gauge their support. But as voting continues, alliances form, negotiations happen behind the scenes, and momentum shifts toward a frontrunner.

Step 4: The Smoke Signals – White or Black?

At the end of each voting session, the ballots are burned in a special stove inside the Sistine Chapel.

• Black smoke = No pope elected.
• White smoke = A new pope has been chosen.

This is the moment the world watches. Thousands gather in St. Peter’s Square, waiting for the signal. And when the white smoke finally rises, the Church has its new leader.

Step 5: The Final Announcement – “Habemus Papam”

Once a cardinal secures the necessary votes, the momentous final steps begin:

1. The elected cardinal is asked if he accepts the role of pope. (Spoiler: they always say yes.)
2. He chooses his new papal name—a reflection of what his leadership will symbolize.
3. The world’s attention shifts to the central balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, where the new pope is revealed with the famous words: "Habemus Papam!" ("We have a pope!")

At that moment, the Catholic Church enters a new era.

How This Conclave Could Be the Most Controversial in Centuries

With Pope Francis’ successor on the horizon, this won’t be a simple election—it will be a battle for the future of Catholicism.

• Will the next pope push for major reforms? (Married priests, LGBTQ+ acceptance, financial transparency?)
• Will conservative cardinals force a rollback of Francis’ progressive policies?
• Could the conclave deadlock and force an unexpected compromise candidate?

The Catholic Church is at a turning point, and the world is watching.

Now that we know the process, the real question is: Who will be the next pope?

Who Will Be the Next Pope? The Top Candidates and Vatican Power Struggles

With Pope Francis’ health in decline and the Vatican already preparing for the inevitable, one question dominates Catholic circles: Who will be the next pope?

The answer isn’t simple. The Catholic Church is divided, and this election will decide whether it leans further into reform or snaps back toward conservative doctrine. The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Behind the walls of the Vatican, cardinals are already maneuvering. Here’s a breakdown of the frontrunners, the dark horses, and the political battle that will shape the Church’s future.

The Frontrunners: Who’s Most Likely to Be the Next Pope?

🚨 These are the men most likely to take the Throne of St. Peter: 🚨

1. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – The Vatican Power Broker

⭐ Why He Could Win:

• Currently the Vatican Secretary of State, meaning he already controls much of the Church’s bureaucracy.
• Well-connected in European Catholic circles and favored by moderates.
• Would likely be a “continuity pope”, maintaining Francis’ policies without major upheaval.

❌ Why He Might Lose:

• Not a charismatic leader—lacks the global appeal of Francis or John Paul II.
• Too much of an insider, which could backfire if the Church wants a fresh start.

📊 Odds of Becoming Pope: 4/1

2. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – The Progressive Hope

⭐ Why He Could Win:

• Francis loves him—he’s widely seen as Francis’ ideological successor.
• Represents the fastest-growing Catholic population (Asia), which could swing votes in his favor.
• Charismatic, media-savvy, and popular with younger Catholics.

❌ Why He Might Lose:

• Too progressive for conservative factions, who will fight hard to block him.
• Has never run the Vatican bureaucracy, raising concerns about his leadership experience.

📊 Odds of Becoming Pope: 5/1

3. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Congo) – The African Powerhouse

⭐ Why He Could Win:

• Africa is the future of the Catholic Church, with explosive growth in Catholic populations.
• A strong conservative voice, making him a compromise candidate between factions.
• Has been outspoken about global inequality, climate change, and social justice—topics Francis prioritized.

❌ Why He Might Lose:

• Europe still dominates Vatican politics, making it hard for an African cardinal to gain the votes needed.
• Some see him as too independent-minded for Vatican elites.

📊 Odds of Becoming Pope: 7/1

4. Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary) – The Conservative Hardliner

⭐ Why He Could Win:

• Represents the traditionalist wing of the Catholic Church.
• Beloved by Opus Dei and European conservatives.
• Would reverse many of Francis’ reforms, appealing to hardliners.

❌ Why He Might Lose:

• His election would be seen as a major rollback, possibly alienating many Catholics.
• Not well-known globally, making him a weaker candidate in an era of media-driven papacies.

📊 Odds of Becoming Pope: 10/1

Wild Cards: The Surprise Candidates Who Could Emerge

🔥 Sometimes, a compromise candidate wins after multiple rounds of deadlock. Here are three names that could shock the world:

1. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – The Peacemaker

• Well-liked across both conservative and progressive factions.
• Played a role in Vatican peace negotiations (Ukraine conflict).
• If the conclave deadlocks, he could emerge as the middle-ground pick.

📊 Dark Horse Odds: 15/1

2. Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg) – The European Progressive

• Pro-LGBTQ+, pro-immigration, pro-environmental action—exactly the kind of pope reformers want.
• But… way too progressive for conservatives, making him a long shot.

📊 Dark Horse Odds: 20/1

3. Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea) – The Ultra-Conservative Option

• If the conclave swings hard right, he’s the candidate they’ll rally behind.
• Opposes almost all of Francis’ reforms.
• Would return the Church to a pre-Vatican II style of leadership.

📊 Dark Horse Odds: 25/1

The Vatican Power Struggle: What Factions Are Fighting for Control?

This election isn’t just about religion—it’s about power. Here are the main factions battling for the future of the Church:

🔹 1. The Progressives (Francis’ Camp)

• Want a pope who continues Francis’ reforms—more inclusivity, environmental action, and financial transparency.
• Supporters: Tagle, Hollerich, Zuppi.
• Biggest Opponent: The hardline conservatives in Europe and the U.S.

🔹 2. The Conservatives (The Traditionalists)

• Want to roll back Francis’ changes—especially regarding LGBTQ+ issues and financial oversight.
• Supporters: Erdo, Sarah, conservative U.S. bishops.
• Biggest Opponent: The growing liberal factions in Africa and Latin America.

🔹 3. The Middle Ground (The Vatican Bureaucrats)

• Want stability, not revolution. They’ll back someone who can keep the Church unified.
• Supporters: Parolin, Zuppi.
• Biggest Opponent: Any radical change from either side.

What’s Next? The Battle for the Throne of St. Peter

With the Vatican divided, this conclave won’t be quick or easy. It could take multiple rounds of voting before a new pope is chosen.

🚨 Key questions heading into the election: 🚨

• Will the cardinals choose continuity or change?
• Could an unexpected candidate emerge as a compromise pick?
• What happens if the conclave deadlocks for weeks?

One thing is certain: the next pope will shape Catholicism for decades.

The Political and Geopolitical Stakes of the Next Papacy

The Catholic Church isn’t just a religious institution—it’s a global power that influences diplomacy, politics, and international relations. The next pope won’t just be a spiritual leader; he’ll be a key player in global affairs.

With Pope Francis’ exit looming, the Vatican faces pressure from governments, financial institutions, and ideological factions. Who becomes the next pope will determine the Church’s stance on everything from China to climate change to capitalism.

So what’s at stake?

1. The Global Catholic Divide: The West vs. The Global South

🚨 The Vatican is losing influence in the West but growing in the Global South.

• Europe and North America: Catholicism is in decline, facing secularism, scandals, and political polarization.
• Africa and Asia: Catholicism is booming, with millions of new followers—meaning cardinals from these regions demand more power.

📊 By 2050, Africa is expected to have more Catholics than Europe. That’s why the African and Asian cardinals are pushing hard for one of their own to take the papacy.

🛑 Key Question: Will the conclave elect a European pope (status quo) or an African/Asian pope (future of the Church)?

2. The U.S. Catholic Right vs. Pope Francis’ Legacy

The U.S. has some of the wealthiest and most politically powerful Catholics, and many hate Francis’ progressive agenda.

🔥 The Catholic Right Wants a Conservative Pope 🔥

• Oppose Francis' stances on climate change, wealth redistribution, and immigration.
• Supported Trump and nationalist movements.
• Back conservative cardinals like Erdo and Sarah to steer the Church back toward tradition.

💡 The Wild Card? Latin America.

• Many Latin American Catholics love Pope Francis and will fight to keep his vision alive.
• They could back Cardinal Tagle or another progressive candidate to block a conservative resurgence.

🛑 Key Question: Will the U.S. Catholic Right succeed in pushing for a rollback pope?

3. China and the Vatican: A High-Stakes Power Game

China is watching this election closely.

• Under Francis, the Vatican made historic agreements with Beijing, giving China more control over appointing bishops.
• This deal angered conservatives, who saw it as selling out to the Communist Party.

🚨 If a conservative pope is elected, he could revoke the China-Vatican deal.
🚨 If a Francis-style pope wins, expect deeper ties with Beijing.

🛑 Key Question: Will the Vatican distance itself from China, or will the next pope continue diplomatic ties?

4. Russia, Ukraine, and the Vatican’s Role in War Diplomacy

The Vatican tried to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine—with mixed results.

• Francis condemned the war but refused to fully break with Moscow—frustrating Ukrainian Catholics.
• Some conservative cardinals lean pro-Russia, seeing Putin as a defender of Christian values.

📌 If a conservative pope wins, expect stronger Vatican ties to Russia.
📌 If a progressive pope wins, expect a shift toward supporting Ukraine and the West.

🛑 Key Question: Will the next pope be soft on Russia or fully back Ukraine?

5. The Church’s Influence Over Social Issues: LGBTQ+, Abortion, and Climate Change

🔥 Progressives want a pope who will modernize the Church on:

• LGBTQ+ rights – More inclusion? (or a crackdown?)
• Abortion – Will the Church soften its stance?
• Women’s roles in the Church – More female leadership?

🔥 Conservatives want a pope who will restore “traditional values”

• More restrictions on LGBTQ+ inclusion
• Harder stance on abortion
• A return to Latin Mass and pre-Vatican II customs

🛑 Key Question: Will the next pope push forward on social progress or slam the brakes?

Final Verdict: The Papal Election is a Global Power Struggle

The next pope won’t just lead a church—he’ll be a geopolitical figure influencing world events.

🚨 Biggest election factors:
✅ Will the Vatican pick an African/Asian pope or stick with Europe?
✅ Will the Catholic Right succeed in reversing Francis' legacy?
✅ How will the next pope handle China, Russia, and the U.S.?
✅ Will the Church embrace progress or return to tradition?

One thing is clear: whoever wins, the world will feel the impact.

The Catholic Church’s Future: Reformation or Regression?

The Catholic Church stands at a historic crossroads. With Pope Francis’ health failing and the Vatican preparing for a new era, the next pope will determine whether the Church continues its slow modernization or snaps back to centuries-old traditions.

🚨 Will the next pope embrace reformation—or lead a conservative counter-revolution?

The answer will impact 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide and reshape the Church’s role in global affairs. Here’s what’s at stake.

1. The Case for a Reformist Pope: Continuing Francis’ Vision

For the past decade, Pope Francis has tried to modernize the Catholic Church. His reforms have made him beloved by progressives—but hated by traditionalists.

If a Francis-style pope is elected, expect:
✅ More LGBTQ+ inclusion – Some progressive factions want same-sex blessings and a softer stance on gay relationships.
✅ A continued crackdown on financial corruption – Francis pushed for more transparency in Vatican banking.
✅ More environmental action – The Vatican influenced global climate policy under Francis.
✅ Latin America, Africa, and Asia gaining more influence – The Church would shift away from its European stronghold.

Biggest supporters of reform:

• Latin American and African cardinals
• Younger Catholics who want a Church that evolves
• Social justice and environmental activists

🛑 The Problem?

• Hardline conservatives will resist. Many already see Francis as too liberal.
• Some argue the Church is alienating conservative Catholics, especially in the U.S.

2. The Case for a Conservative Pope: A Return to Tradition

Conservative factions believe Francis’ reforms have weakened the Church. If a traditionalist pope is elected, expect:
❌ A rollback of LGBTQ+ inclusion – The Church could ban same-sex blessings entirely.
❌ A return to pre-Vatican II traditions – Latin Mass could be restored, along with stricter doctrinal enforcement.
❌ A reversal of progressive social policies – Crackdowns on liberal theologians, immigration stances, and climate activism.
❌ A stronger focus on Europe and the U.S. – The Vatican could pivot away from Africa and Asia to reassert its dominance in the West.

Biggest supporters of a conservative pope:

• U.S. Catholic right-wing factions
• European traditionalists (especially in Italy, Hungary, and Poland)
• Older Catholics who believe the Church is losing its identity

🛑 The Problem?

• A conservative rollback could further alienate younger Catholics, leading to massive membership declines in the West.
• If the Church ignores Africa and Asia, it risks losing influence where it’s actually growing.

3. The “Compromise Pope” Scenario: Avoiding a Full Schism

The Vatican may not want an extreme shift in either direction. If the conclave deadlocks between progressives and conservatives, we could see the rise of a compromise pope—someone who:
🔹 Keeps some of Francis’ reforms but slows down radical changes.
🔹 Maintains traditional Church teachings but softens public messaging.
🔹 Prioritizes unity over ideological warfare.

Possible compromise candidates:

• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – A Vatican insider respected by both factions.
• Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg) – Moderate on social issues, but still leans progressive.
• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – More bureaucrat than ideologue, making him acceptable to most sides.

🛑 The Problem?

• A compromise pope might struggle to make real changes, leading to further internal tensions.
• Neither extreme faction would be fully satisfied, setting up another power struggle in the future.

4. The Risk of a Full Vatican Schism

🚨 The Catholic Church hasn’t had a major split since the Reformation—but it’s closer than ever. 🚨

• Traditionalists are furious at modernizing trends. Some far-right Catholics have already distanced themselves from Rome.
• Progressives feel the Church isn’t changing fast enough. If another conservative pope is elected, we could see progressive Catholics breaking away.

📌 If the next pope is too radical (on either side), the Church could split into two rival factions.

Would that mean a new “Reformation” for Catholicism? It’s possible. Francis’ reforms are the biggest shift since Vatican II, and conservatives are threatening to rebel.

🚨 Biggest risk factors for a Vatican schism:

• If a far-right pope is elected, expect progressives to challenge Rome.
• If a hyper-progressive pope wins, traditionalists could defect in large numbers.

5. The Vatican’s Long-Term Future: Adapting or Declining?

Regardless of who wins, one thing is clear: The Catholic Church must adapt or risk collapse.

📌 What happens if the Church keeps shrinking in the West?

• Fewer donations = Less Vatican influence.
• Declining political power in secular countries.

📌 What happens if the Church embraces globalization?

• Africa, Asia, and Latin America could become the Church’s new power centers.
• A more diverse, inclusive Vatican could emerge—but at the cost of losing conservative Catholics.

The next pope will decide:
✅ Does the Church modernize and risk backlash?
✅ Or does it return to tradition and risk shrinking into irrelevance?

🚨 Final Question: Will the Catholic Church’s next leader be its savior—or the architect of its downfall?

Conclusion: The Next Pope Will Shape Global History

The next papal election isn’t just about who wears the white robes—it’s about the future of a 2,000-year-old institution, its 1.3 billion followers, and its influence over global politics, culture, and religion.

🚨 This isn’t just a religious transition—it’s a full-scale Vatican power struggle. 🚨

1. The Three Possible Outcomes of the Next Papacy

At this point, there are three possible directions for the Catholic Church:

✅ Option 1: A Reformist Pope Who Expands Francis’ Legacy

• LGBTQ+ inclusion, climate action, financial transparency.
• More power to African, Asian, and Latin American Catholic communities.
• Likely candidates: Tagle, Hollerich, Zuppi.

📌 Outcome?

• Appeals to younger, progressive Catholics but risks a backlash from conservative factions.

❌ Option 2: A Hardline Conservative Pope Who Rolls Back Reform

• Reinstates traditionalist practices (Latin Mass, doctrinal purity, anti-progressive policies).
• Strengthens ties with U.S. right-wing Catholic groups and European hardliners.
• Likely candidates: Erdo, Sarah, some surprise ultra-traditionalist.

📌 Outcome?

• Gains support from traditionalist Catholics, but alienates younger and more moderate followers, accelerating decline in Europe and the U.S.

🤝 Option 3: A Compromise Pope Who Balances Both Sides

• Maintains some Francis-era reforms but slows down radical change.
• Avoids schisms while keeping the Vatican’s internal factions in check.
• Likely candidates: Parolin, Zuppi, or an unexpected middle-ground candidate.

📌 Outcome?

• Minimizes infighting but delays real decisions on the Church’s future.

2. The Catholic Church’s Biggest Existential Threats

No matter who wins, the Vatican faces massive long-term challenges:

🔥 Membership Collapse in the West – Declining church attendance in the U.S. and Europe.
🔥 The Rise of the Global South – Will the Church shift its power base to Africa & Asia?
🔥 The Vatican’s Relationship with China – Keep diplomatic ties or take a harder stance?
🔥 Political Infighting – Will Catholic conservatives and progressives split the Church?

If the next pope makes the wrong moves, the Catholic Church could enter its most turbulent era since the Protestant Reformation.

3. Why This Papal Election Will Be a Global Event

🚨 Why should the world care about who the next pope is? Because the Vatican still wields:

🌍 Massive geopolitical influence – From U.S. politics to China to Russia, the pope’s stance shapes diplomacy.
💰 Billions in global assets – The Church owns vast financial, real estate, and cultural holdings worldwide.
🛐 1.3 billion followers – The largest Christian denomination impacts political and social movements everywhere.

This is not just a religious vote—it’s a political and economic shift that will affect governments, social policies, and world affairs.

Final Question: Who Will Be the Next Pope?

The Catholic Church has reached a breaking point. The next pope will either:

✅ Steer the Church into the modern era, risking backlash from conservatives.
✅ Reverse Francis’ reforms, alienating younger Catholics but regaining traditionalists.
✅ Try to maintain balance—but risk failing both sides.

📌 One thing is certain: This election will shape global history.

🚨 The battle for the Throne of St. Peter is on. The only question is—who will win? 🚨

🔹 Final Thoughts? 🔹
This is a Prime Rogue Inc. exclusive—covering the real power struggles inside the Vatican that mainstream media won’t touch.

👉 Want more deep-dive geopolitical analysis? Stay with Prime Rogue.