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For 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide, it is a time to mourn as the Pope has passed on April 21, 2025. As they grieve, they also wonder, who will be the next pope?
With the 86-year-old pontiff having battled health issues, including hospitalizations for respiratory infections and kidney failure, the Vatican was braced for a historic transition of power. But what happens when the pope dies? And how is a pope elected in today’s deeply divided Catholic Church?
This isn’t just about religious tradition. The election of the next pope is a high-stakes geopolitical event that will shape global Catholicism for decades. Behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, cardinals will battle over the future of the Church:
In this deep dive, we’ll break down everything you need to know about the coming papal succession crisis—from the secretive process of how a pope is elected to the Vatican’s strict protocols for when the pope dies. Most importantly, we’ll analyze the top candidates and predict who will be the next pope in this historic transition.
The Catholic Church stands at a crossroads. The only question left is: who will take the throne of St. Peter next?
Read on for a full breakdown of the next papal election, the Vatican’s power struggles, and the frontrunners to replace Pope Francis.
The Vatican is obsessed with tradition, secrecy, and ritual, and nothing demonstrates this more than what happens when a pope dies. The process is steeped in centuries-old customs, combining religious solemnity with raw political maneuvering. When Pope Francis eventually dies, the Catholic Church will enter a period of transition unlike any other institution in the world.
But make no mistake—this isn’t just about mourning. The death of a pope is a power vacuum, and every Vatican faction will be preparing their next move. So what happens step by step when the pope dies?
Today, the process is less theatrical but still deeply ritualistic. The Camerlengo:
The destruction of the Fisherman’s Ring is critical because it prevents anyone from forging official papal documents after his death.
From the moment the pope dies, the Catholic Church enters a unique period called “Sede Vacante” (The Empty Seat). During this time:
This period is one of the most politically unstable moments in the Church because there is no ultimate authority until the next pope is chosen. Every Vatican faction—progressives, conservatives, Jesuits, Opus Dei, and regional power players—starts making moves behind closed doors.
Once the pope’s death is confirmed, the Vatican prepares for his funeral, which traditionally happens four to six days later.
After the burial, the Church enters a nine-day period of mourning, known as the Novendiales. But this isn’t just about religious ceremony—this is when Vatican politics go into overdrive.
Behind the scenes, cardinals are already meeting in informal groups—the Vatican’s version of backroom political deals—deciding who they will back in the upcoming election.
As the mourning period ends, all attention shifts to the next stage: the election of the next pope.
At this point, the Vatican is no longer just honoring the past pope—it is preparing to choose the future of the Catholic Church.
With the pope dead and the Vatican in Sede Vacante, the real power struggle begins. The Catholic Church is at a crossroads—will it elect a progressive reformer, a conservative hardliner, or an unexpected dark horse?
The next section breaks down exactly how a pope is elected and why this particular election could be the most politically charged in modern history.
For nearly 1,000 years, the Catholic Church has chosen its leader behind locked doors, away from prying eyes and political interference. The papal conclave is one of the most secretive and ritual-heavy elections in the world. It’s where alliances are formed, backroom deals are struck, and history is made.
But how is a pope elected? And in today’s divided Church, will the next conclave be a smooth transition—or a battlefield?
Not just anyone can elect the next pope—only cardinals under 80 years old have the privilege.
This sets up a deeply divided conclave, with cardinals split between continuing Francis’ reforms or rolling back progressive policies.
Once the mourning period ends, the electoral process begins.
From this moment on, the cardinals can only communicate with each other, and they will not leave until a new pope is chosen.
Here’s how each round of voting works:
The first rounds are usually symbolic, allowing different factions to gauge their support. But as voting continues, alliances form, negotiations happen behind the scenes, and momentum shifts toward a frontrunner.
At the end of each voting session, the ballots are burned in a special stove inside the Sistine Chapel.
This is the moment the world watches. Thousands gather in St. Peter’s Square, waiting for the signal. And when the white smoke finally rises, the Church has its new leader.
Once a cardinal secures the necessary votes, the momentous final steps begin:
At that moment, the Catholic Church enters a new era.
The Catholic Church is at a turning point, and the world is watching.
Now that we know the process, the real question is: Who will be the next pope?
With Pope Francis’ health in decline and the Vatican already preparing for the inevitable, one question dominates Catholic circles: Who will be the next pope?
The answer isn’t simple. The Catholic Church is divided, and this election will decide whether it leans further into reform or snaps back toward conservative doctrine. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Behind the walls of the Vatican, cardinals are already maneuvering. Here’s a breakdown of the frontrunners, the dark horses, and the political battle that will shape the Church’s future.
These are the men most likely to take the Throne of St. Peter:
Why He Could Win:
Why He Might Lose:
Odds of Becoming Pope: 4/1
Why He Could Win:
Why He Might Lose:
Odds of Becoming Pope: 5/1
Why He Could Win:
Why He Might Lose:
Odds of Becoming Pope: 7/1
Why He Could Win:
Why He Might Lose:
Odds of Becoming Pope: 10/1
Sometimes, a compromise candidate wins after multiple rounds of deadlock. Here are three names that could shock the world:
Dark Horse Odds: 15/1
Dark Horse Odds: 20/1
Dark Horse Odds: 25/1
This election isn’t just about religion—it’s about power. Here are the main factions battling for the future of the Church:
With the Vatican divided, this conclave won’t be quick or easy. It could take multiple rounds of voting before a new pope is chosen.
Key questions heading into the election:
One thing is certain: the next pope will shape Catholicism for decades.
With Pope Francis’ exit looming, the Vatican faces pressure from governments, financial institutions, and ideological factions. Who becomes the next pope will determine the Church’s stance on everything from China to climate change to capitalism.
So what’s at stake?
The Vatican is losing influence in the West but growing in the Global South.
📊 By 2050, Africa is expected to have more Catholics than Europe. That’s why the African and Asian cardinals are pushing hard for one of their own to take the papacy.
Key Question: Will the conclave elect a European pope (status quo) or an African/Asian pope (future of the Church)?
The Catholic Right Wants a Conservative Pope
The Wild Card? Latin America.
Key Question: Will the U.S. Catholic Right succeed in pushing for a rollback pope?
China is watching this election closely.
If a conservative pope is elected, he could revoke the China-Vatican deal.
If a Francis-style pope wins, expect deeper ties with Beijing.
Key Question: Will the Vatican distance itself from China, or will the next pope continue diplomatic ties?
The Vatican tried to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine—with mixed results.
If a conservative pope wins, expect stronger Vatican ties to Russia.
If a progressive pope wins, expect a shift toward supporting Ukraine and the West.
Key Question: Will the next pope be soft on Russia or fully back Ukraine?
Progressives want a pope who will modernize the Church on:
Conservatives want a pope who will restore “traditional values”
Key Question: Will the next pope push forward on social progress or slam the brakes?
The next pope won’t just lead a church—he’ll be a geopolitical figure influencing world events.
Biggest election factors:
Will the Vatican pick an African/Asian pope or stick with Europe?
Will the Catholic Right succeed in reversing Francis’ legacy?
How will the next pope handle China, Russia, and the U.S.?
Will the Church embrace progress or return to tradition?
One thing is clear: whoever wins, the world will feel the impact.
The Catholic Church stands at a historic crossroads. With Pope Francis’ health failing and the Vatican preparing for a new era, the next pope will determine whether the Church continues its slow modernization or snaps back to centuries-old traditions.
Will the next pope embrace reformation—or lead a conservative counter-revolution?
The answer will impact 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide and reshape the Church’s role in global affairs. Here’s what’s at stake.
For the past decade, Pope Francis has tried to modernize the Catholic Church. His reforms have made him beloved by progressives—but hated by traditionalists.
If a Francis-style pope is elected, expect:
More LGBTQ+ inclusion – Some progressive factions want same-sex blessings and a softer stance on gay relationships.
A continued crackdown on financial corruption – Francis pushed for more transparency in Vatican banking.
More environmental action – The Vatican influenced global climate policy under Francis.
Latin America, Africa, and Asia gaining more influence – The Church would shift away from its European stronghold.
Biggest supporters of reform:
The Problem?
Conservative factions believe Francis’ reforms have weakened the Church. If a traditionalist pope is elected, expect:
A rollback of LGBTQ+ inclusion – The Church could ban same-sex blessings entirely.
A return to pre-Vatican II traditions – Latin Mass could be restored, along with stricter doctrinal enforcement.
A reversal of progressive social policies – Crackdowns on liberal theologians, immigration stances, and climate activism.
A stronger focus on Europe and the U.S. – The Vatican could pivot away from Africa and Asia to reassert its dominance in the West.
Biggest supporters of a conservative pope:
The Problem?
The Vatican may not want an extreme shift in either direction. If the conclave deadlocks between progressives and conservatives, we could see the rise of a compromise pope—someone who:
Keeps some of Francis’ reforms but slows down radical changes.
Maintains traditional Church teachings but softens public messaging.
Prioritizes unity over ideological warfare.
Possible compromise candidates:
The Problem?
The Catholic Church hasn’t had a major split since the Reformation—but it’s closer than ever.
If the next pope is too radical (on either side), the Church could split into two rival factions.
Would that mean a new “Reformation” for Catholicism? It’s possible. Francis’ reforms are the biggest shift since Vatican II, and conservatives are threatening to rebel.
Biggest risk factors for a Vatican schism:
Regardless of who wins, one thing is clear: The Catholic Church must adapt or risk collapse.
What happens if the Church keeps shrinking in the West?
What happens if the Church embraces globalization?
The next pope will decide:
Does the Church modernize and risk backlash?
Or does it return to tradition and risk shrinking into irrelevance?
Final Question: Will the Catholic Church’s next leader be its savior—or the architect of its downfall?
The next papal election isn’t just about who wears the white robes—it’s about the future of a 2,000-year-old institution, its 1.3 billion followers, and its influence over global politics, culture, and religion.
This isn’t just a religious transition—it’s a full-scale Vatican power struggle.
At this point, there are three possible directions for the Catholic Church:
Outcome?
Outcome?
Outcome?
No matter who wins, the Vatican faces massive long-term challenges:
Membership Collapse in the West – Declining church attendance in the U.S. and Europe.
The Rise of the Global South – Will the Church shift its power base to Africa & Asia?
The Vatican’s Relationship with China – Keep diplomatic ties or take a harder stance?
Political Infighting – Will Catholic conservatives and progressives split the Church?
If the next pope makes the wrong moves, the Catholic Church could enter its most turbulent era since the Protestant Reformation.
Why should the world care about who the next pope is? Because the Vatican still wields:
Massive geopolitical influence – From U.S. politics to China to Russia, the pope’s stance shapes diplomacy.
Billions in global assets – The Church owns vast financial, real estate, and cultural holdings worldwide.
1.3 billion followers – The largest Christian denomination impacts political and social movements everywhere.
This is not just a religious vote—it’s a political and economic shift that will affect governments, social policies, and world affairs.
The Catholic Church has reached a breaking point. The next pope will either:
Steer the Church into the modern era, risking backlash from conservatives.
Reverse Francis’ reforms, alienating younger Catholics but regaining traditionalists.
Try to maintain balance—but risk failing both sides.
One thing is certain: This election will shape global history.
The battle for the Throne of St. Peter is on. The only question is—who will win?
Final Thoughts?
This is a Prime Rogue Inc. exclusive—covering the real power struggles inside the Vatican that mainstream media won’t touch. For the best Vatican OSINT – Check out Specula Vaticana!
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