Pope Francis' Health Crisis: Who Will Be the Next Pope & What’s at Stake?

I. Introduction: A Power Shift in the Vatican

Pope Francis in Critical Condition: What We Know

Pope Francis, 88, is in critical condition, and for once, the Vatican isn’t playing coy. The official statement confirms hospitalization due to a severe asthmatic respiratory crisis and bilateral pneumonia, but the real signal is what they aren’t saying.

Historically, when popes have been gravely ill, the Vatican’s response has been to downplay, deflect, or delay announcements—stalling for time while consolidating power. This time, their immediate public acknowledgment of his “critical” state suggests one of two possibilities:

1. He is already dead, and they are securing internal stability before making it official.
2. His death is imminent, and they are bracing for the transition.

His medical condition reads like a pre-obituary checklist:

• Severe respiratory distress → High-flow oxygen, indicating potential lung failure.
• Anemia and thrombocytopenia → Systemic stress, possible internal bleeding or organ failure.
• Sepsis risk → If confirmed, mortality exceeds 60% in elderly patients.

This is not just a temporary illness—it’s endgame territory for Francis’ papacy. Given the Vatican’s history of managing papal deaths, internal discussions about his successor have already begun.

Why This Matters: The Vatican as a Geopolitical Player

Despite its small physical footprint, the Vatican wields outsized global influence. It is:

• A sovereign state with diplomatic ties to 183 countries.
• A mediator in international conflicts, engaging with the U.S., EU, China, and Russia.
• A networked intelligence hub, with clergy embedded in nearly every nation on Earth.

The Pope is not just a spiritual leader—he is a head of state, a foreign policy actor, and a geopolitical broker. The Catholic Church’s 1.3 billion adherents make it one of the most powerful soft power institutions in history.

The successor to Pope Francis will determine the Church’s global political alignment, shaping Vatican policy on:

• Authoritarian vs. liberal democratic governance
• Global South vs. Western priorities
• Traditionalist vs. progressive Catholic doctrine

Whoever takes the throne next will have a profound impact on geopolitics, influencing policies on migration, climate, economic justice, and international diplomacy.

Probability Estimates: Is Pope Francis Already Dead?

Historically, when the Vatican publicly acknowledges a Pope’s critical health, he is either already dead or hours away from death.

| Scenario | Probability |
|------------------------------------|------------|
| Already Dead (not yet announced) | 10-20% |
| Death within 24-48 hours | 30-40% |
| Death within 72 hours - 1 week | 40-50% |
| Survives more than 1 week | 10-15% |
| Recovers enough to resume duties | <5% |

II. Pope Francis’ Geopolitical Legacy

A. Vatican Diplomacy and Global Conflicts

For a Pope who rarely left the Vatican in his later years, Francis shaped some of the most significant global negotiations of the 21st century. Pope Francis' diplomatic strategy was built on a radical openness to dialogue, often engaging with authoritarian regimes that his predecessors had either ignored or openly condemned.

1. U.S.-Cuba Relations (2014): The Vatican as a Backchannel

One of Francis’ most unexpected geopolitical moves was his role in restoring U.S.-Cuba relations. Acting as a neutral mediator, the Vatican facilitated confidential negotiations between the Obama administration and Havana. The resulting 2014 agreement reestablished diplomatic ties, signaling a shift in the Vatican’s ability to influence U.S. foreign policy.

2. Ukraine War Diplomacy (2022-2025): Balancing Act or Blunder?

The Vatican’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was one of the most controversial elements of Francis’ foreign policy. While condemning the war, Francis maintained dialogue with Moscow, frustrating Western leaders who expected a firmer stance. His hesitancy to fully break with Putin alienated some Ukrainian Catholics while reinforcing the Vatican’s historic position as a neutral peace broker.

3. The China-Vatican Agreement (2018, Renewed 2022): A Faustian Bargain?

Perhaps the most contentious geopolitical maneuver of Francis’ papacy was his 2018 agreement with Beijing, which allowed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to influence Catholic bishop appointments. This move:

• Angered anti-communist Catholics, particularly in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
• Strengthened Vatican-Beijing ties, making the Church the only Western institution negotiating religious policy with the CCP.
• Weakened underground Catholic networks in China, many of whom felt abandoned.

Francis’ approach was clear: negotiate with everyone, frustrate everyone a little, and ensure the Vatican stays relevant. The next Pope will inherit these diplomatic entanglements, with potential escalations or reversals depending on Vatican leadership changes.

B. Vatican Influence on Western Political Movements

Francis positioned the Catholic Church as a moral authority on Western political issues, directly intervening in immigration, economic justice, and climate policy.

1. Immigration & Refugees: Clashes with Nationalists

Francis frequently condemned nationalist immigration policies, directly opposing:

• Trump’s border policies in the U.S.
• Viktor Orbán’s hardline migration stance in Hungary.
• Giorgia Meloni’s crackdown on migrants in Italy.

This made him a hero to the European left but a villain to rising nationalist movements, fueling tensions between the Vatican and right-wing populist leaders.

2. Climate Change & ESG Policies: Aligning with Globalist Agendas

Francis elevated the Vatican’s role in climate policy, using his 2015 encyclical Laudato Si’ to push for:

• EU-backed carbon reduction plans.
• Corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) initiatives.
• Greater Vatican participation in UN-led climate agreements.

This alignment with progressive climate policy distanced the Vatican from U.S. conservative Catholics, many of whom saw Francis’ environmental activism as overly political.

The next Pope’s stance on climate and immigration will determine whether the Vatican continues to align with Western liberal governance or pivots toward a more neutral stance.

C. The Vatican’s Internal Power Struggles

While Francis influenced global politics, his papacy was also defined by internal Vatican warfare—a battle between progressives and traditionalists over the future of the Church.

1. Corruption in the Vatican Bank: Cleaning House or Political Purge?

Francis pushed aggressive anti-money laundering reforms, leading to:

• The 2019 Vatican Bank investigations, exposing financial misconduct.
• High-profile resignations of conservative cardinals, who accused Francis of using corruption probes to purge political opponents.

2. The Traditionalist Revolt: A Challenge from Within

Hardline conservative factions—aligned with Opus Dei, nationalist Catholic movements, and Benedict XVI loyalists—opposed Francis’ reforms at every turn. Their grievances included:

• His leniency on LGBTQ+ issues.
• His decentralization of Vatican power to local churches.
• His perceived softness toward China and Islam.

By 2020, some traditionalists were actively working against him, viewing his papacy as a threat to doctrinal purity. The next Pope will either continue or completely reverse Francis’ reforms—a decision that will define the Catholic Church’s ideological direction for decades.

Key Takeaways

• Francis transformed Vatican diplomacy, engaging authoritarian regimes and prioritizing China-Vatican relations, U.S.-Cuba diplomacy, and climate change policy.
• His tenure saw clashes with nationalist governments over immigration, economic justice, and LGBTQ+ issues, aligning the Vatican with progressive Western policies.
• Internally, his papacy ignited a war within the Church, with traditionalists viewing him as a disruptive force who abandoned core Catholic doctrines.

With Francis on his deathbed, the Vatican’s internal factions are already maneuvering for control—a battle that could redefine the Church’s role in global politics.

III. The Vatican’s Power Vacuum: Who Will Lead Next?

A. The Papal Succession Process: How the Next Pope is Chosen

The selection of the next Pope isn’t just a religious event—it’s a geopolitical power struggle playing out within the Sistine Chapel. The College of Cardinals, made up of 120 electors under the age of 80, will gather in conclave to determine the next leader of the Catholic Church.

The process follows a centuries-old system designed to ensure secrecy and prevent outside interference that is governed by the Camerlengo:

• The Cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel, where they are cut off from all external communication.
• Voting begins—candidates must secure two-thirds majority to be elected.
• Ballots are burned after each round: black smoke signals no decision; white smoke announces a new Pope.

But behind the tradition lies a brutal internal power game, as factions maneuver to secure control over Vatican policy and wealth for the next era.

Key Factions in Play

1. Progressives – Want to continue Francis’ social reforms and expand Vatican diplomacy.
2. Traditionalists – Aim to restore doctrinal orthodoxy, roll back Francis-era changes, and align with nationalist movements.
3. Global South Cardinals – Seek to shift the Vatican’s focus toward Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where Catholicism is still growing.

This conclave won’t just be about theology—it will decide who controls the Vatican’s global influence in the 21st century.

B. The Leading Contenders for Pope

Historically, the Vatican operates on continuity and counterbalance.

• Francis was a progressive Latin American Pope, following the deeply conservative, European papacy of Benedict XVI.
• The next Pope will likely reflect a strategic balancing act, either deepening Francis’ legacy or reversing course.

1. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, Progressive-Moderate)

• Tied to Vatican diplomacy—Led negotiations on Ukraine and humanitarian aid.
• Favored by pro-Francis factions—Could keep the Vatican aligned with EU interests.
• Challenges: Will face fierce resistance from traditionalists who view him as a Francis clone.

2. Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary, Conservative-Traditionalist)

• Represents European nationalist Catholicism—Close ties to Viktor Orbán and Poland’s ruling party.
• Would likely roll back Francis’ social policies and strengthen Vatican ties with right-wing movements.
• Challenges: His election would trigger backlash from progressive Catholic factions, particularly in Western Europe and Latin America.

3. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, Progressive-Francis Loyalist)

• Would be the first Asian Pope, signaling a shift toward the Global South.
• Strong advocate for China-Vatican engagement—could strengthen Catholic ties in Asia.
• Challenges: Western traditionalists would likely oppose his Francis-style diplomacy, fearing further dilution of European influence in the Vatican.

4. Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea, Conservative-African Bloc)

• Represents Africa’s rising Catholic power—Could be the first African Pope in centuries.
• Would pivot Vatican priorities toward poverty, corruption, and conservative doctrine.
• Challenges: The College of Cardinals remains Eurocentric—his election is possible but an uphill battle.

The ideological split between conservatives and progressives is stark. The outcome of this election will determine Vatican policy for the next generation.

C. The Intelligence Challenge: External Influence in the Conclave

The Vatican has been a target of foreign intelligence agencies for decades. Every conclave sees subtle geopolitical interventions as global powers attempt to influence the outcome.

• Italy’s intelligence services monitor conclaves for political implications in Rome.
• The CIA and Chinese MSS track Vatican policy due to its influence in Latin America and China.
• The Kremlin views the Vatican as a Western soft-power tool, especially amid tensions over Ukraine.

While the Sistine Chapel is sealed off during the election, Vatican power dynamics are shaped well in advance by external pressure. The next Pope will decide whether the Vatican leans toward the West, aligns with the Global South, or charts a more independent path.

Key Takeaways

• The next Pope will be chosen through a secretive conclave, but the battle lines are already drawn between progressives, traditionalists, and Global South cardinals.
• Leading contenders reflect the Vatican’s internal divide—from Zuppi (moderate progressive) to Erdő (nationalist conservative) to Tagle (Francis loyalist) to Sarah (African conservative).
• Geopolitical actors will attempt to shape the election outcome, making this a global power struggle, not just a religious transition.

The Vatican is now in a state of power vacuum. The next Pope will set the Church’s geopolitical trajectory for decades to come.

IV. The Dark Horse Candidates: Could Another Francis Emerge?

A. How Francis Was a Dark Horse in 2013

Pope Francis was never supposed to be Pope. Heading into the 2013 conclave, Jorge Mario Bergoglio was considered an outsider, overshadowed by high-profile European cardinals. His election was a compromise, a choice made when Vatican factions deadlocked, needing someone outside the traditional power structure.

His unexpected rise rewrote the rules of papal succession, proving that a Pope doesn’t have to be a front-runner to win. Given the current deep ideological divide among cardinals, the 2025 conclave could produce another shock winner—someone outside the predictable power blocs.

B. Unexpected Contenders Who Could Surprise

If conclave factions fail to agree, they could turn to a neutral or compromise candidate—someone respected but not seen as a front-runner. These figures could emerge as unexpected choices, particularly if the conclave drags on for multiple voting rounds.

1. Cardinal Seán O’Malley (USA, Reformist)

• Current Role: Archbishop of Boston; key figure in Vatican abuse reform.
• Why He Could Win: Strong reputation for cleaning up Church scandals, making him a compromise candidate if cardinals want a reformist without Francis’ divisiveness.
• Challenges: An American Pope would be a political risk, as the Vatican historically resists putting the Church under U.S. influence.

2. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, Vatican Secretary of State)

• Current Role: Vatican Secretary of State; top diplomat in Francis’ administration.
• Why He Could Win: Ultimate Vatican insider, ensuring stability in diplomatic affairs.
• Challenges: Seen as too tied to the Francis status quo—traditionalists would likely block his election.

3. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo, African Anti-Corruption Leader)

• Current Role: Archbishop of Kinshasa; advocate for African Catholicism and economic justice.
• Why He Could Win: Represents the fastest-growing Catholic population; would signal a Vatican shift toward the Global South.
• Challenges: Eurocentric Vatican leadership may resist an African Pope, fearing a loss of European influence.

4. Cardinal Rainer Woelki (Germany, Hardline Conservative)

• Current Role: Archbishop of Cologne; controversial figure in European traditionalist circles.
• Why He Could Win: Supported by far-right Catholic factions, offering a radical break from Francis.
• Challenges: His ultra-conservative views and past scandals make him polarizing—unlikely to gain broad support.

C. Could a Complete Unknown Win?

There’s always a chance that conclave factions deadlock, forcing cardinals to elect a little-known bishop who satisfies both sides. This has happened before:

• John Paul I (1978): Elected as a neutral, transitional Pope—died after 33 days.
• John XXIII (1958): Expected to be a caretaker, but launched Vatican II, reshaping the Church.

If the Vatican opts for a dark horse, expect a shock election that reshapes Catholicism’s global role in unpredictable ways.

Key Takeaways

• Francis was a dark horse himself, proving that conclaves can produce unexpected winners.
• If major factions fail to agree, they may select a neutral compromise candidate—someone with reform credentials but no deep ideological ties.
• African and Latin American candidates could emerge, reflecting Catholicism’s demographic shift.
• Past conclaves have produced unexpected choices—if history repeats itself, 2025 could be another turning point for the Vatican.

The conclave could deliver a surprise result, fundamentally altering the direction of the Church for the next century.

V. The Future of the Catholic Church in a Changing World

A. Declining Influence in the West: Can the Church Remain Relevant?

The Catholic Church is in freefall across the Western world. Once the dominant religious force in Europe and North America, it is now struggling to maintain influence. Mass attendance, priestly vocations, and Catholic political clout have all collapsed.

1. Europe: The Vatican’s Old Stronghold is Crumbling

• France: Weekly mass attendance has dropped below 5%, and the country has officially transitioned to a secular republic with no Catholic influence in governance.
• Germany: The Church is hemorrhaging members, with over 500,000 formal resignations in 2023 alone.
• Ireland: Once a Catholic stronghold, Ireland has legalized abortion, same-sex marriage, and divorce, all through overwhelming referendums.
• Italy & Spain: Growing secularism has led to younger generations abandoning the Church, and Catholicism no longer plays a defining role in political decision-making.

2. The United States: A Fractured Catholic Identity

• Only 20% of American Catholics attend mass weekly, down from 55% in the 1960s.
• The ongoing sex abuse scandals have led to billions in legal settlements, eroding trust.
• Many younger U.S. Catholics identify as culturally Catholic but reject Vatican authority on social issues like LGBTQ+ rights, birth control, and clerical celibacy.

3. Can the Church Regain Western Relevance?

The next Pope must decide whether to:

• Double down on conservative doctrine, appealing to the remaining faithful in Europe and North America.
• Modernize further, attempting to win back disaffected younger Catholics through theological reforms.
• Shift focus away from the West entirely, prioritizing Catholicism’s growing base in Africa and Asia.

A traditionalist Pope could accelerate the Vatican’s retreat from Western politics, while a progressive leader might push for a new Vatican II-style modernization effort.

B. Explosive Growth in the Global South: The Future of Catholicism?

While Catholicism shrinks in the West, it is thriving in the Global South, particularly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

1. Africa: The Church’s Fastest-Growing Power Base

• The Catholic population in Africa has quadrupled since 1980, making it the fastest-growing Christian movement in the world.
• Nigeria alone is expected to overtake Europe in Catholic population by 2050.
• African clergy are filling Vatican ranks, producing a disproportionate share of new priests compared to Europe.

2. Asia: Catholicism’s Unexpected Surge

• The Philippines remains the largest Catholic nation in Asia, with over 80 million believers.
• India, Vietnam, and South Korea are experiencing a surge in Catholic conversions, even in historically non-Christian regions.
• China remains hostile to Catholicism, but underground churches continue to expand, despite CCP crackdowns.

3. Latin America: A Region in Flux

• Latin America is still home to 40% of the world’s Catholics, but it faces growing competition from evangelical Protestantism.
• Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia remain Catholic powerhouses, but the Vatican’s influence is waning.
• If the Church does not reassert dominance in the region, it risks losing Latin America to Protestant megachurch movements.

C. Could the Next Pope Come from the Global South?

Given these trends, the next Pope could be:

• The first African Pope in centuries, signaling a demographic shift in Catholic power.
• The first Asian Pope in history, reinforcing the Church’s growing influence in the East.
• A Latin American leader who continues Francis’ South American focus on economic justice and social issues.

If the Vatican shifts its center of gravity southward, expect a radical transformation in Catholic priorities, with:

• Less focus on Western political debates (e.g., LGBTQ+ rights, abortion)
• Greater emphasis on poverty, economic justice, and corruption reform
• A stronger confrontation with secular governments in the developing world

The real question for the Vatican is simple:

• Does it fight to remain relevant in the West?
• Or does it fully embrace its future in the Global South?

The next Pope will decide which path to take—a choice that will shape the Catholic Church’s influence for the next century.

Key Takeaways

• The Catholic Church is rapidly losing influence in the West, with Europe and North America becoming increasingly secular.
• Africa and Asia are now the strongest Catholic power bases, with explosive growth in Nigeria, the Philippines, and India.
• Latin America remains a Catholic stronghold but faces competition from evangelical Protestantism.
• The next Pope must decide:
  • Try to reclaim the West through modernization or conservative revival.
  • Fully pivot to the Global South, prioritizing Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

The Vatican’s future hinges on this decision, and the next papacy will determine whether Catholicism remains a Western institution or transforms into a truly global faith.

VI. Probability Analysis: How Long Does Pope Francis Have?

A. Vatican Health Disclosure Patterns: When Do They Announce Death?

The Vatican has a long history of controlling information about the Pope’s health. Official bulletins are often vague or misleading, aimed at delaying public panic and securing internal stability.

1. Historical Patterns of Papal Health Announcements

• Pope John Paul II (2005) – The Vatican maintained that he was “stable” until the final 24 hours, despite clear signs of multi-organ failure for weeks.
• Pope Paul VI (1978) – Official statements described him as “recovering” just hours before his death.
• Pope Pius XII (1958) – The Vatican issued conflicting reports and denied his death for hours after it had already happened.

2. What This Means for Pope Francis

Given this precedent, the fact that the Vatican has openly confirmed his “critical” condition suggests one of two possibilities:

1. He is already dead, and they are delaying the announcement while stabilizing internal Church affairs.
2. His condition is irreversible, and the Vatican is preparing to manage the transition within the next few hours or days.

Historically, once the Vatican admits a Pope is near death, the final announcement is imminent.

B. Medical Risk Factors: Why His Condition is Likely Terminal

Pope Francis is battling multiple high-risk medical conditions, each of which significantly reduces his survival likelihood.

1. Severe Respiratory Failure

• He is already on high-flow oxygen, indicating his lung function is critically compromised.
• If he requires mechanical ventilation, elderly patients have a 60-70% mortality rate within days.
• He has a history of partial lung removal from his youth, further limiting his ability to recover.

2. Pneumonia & Sepsis Risk

• Bilateral pneumonia in elderly patients has a 30-40% fatality rate.
• If he develops sepsis, mortality jumps to 60-80%.
• The presence of anemia and thrombocytopenia suggests systemic organ stress, a potential precursor to multi-organ failure.

3. Age & Underlying Conditions

• At 88 years old, his immune response is significantly weakened.
• Recent knee and mobility issues suggest his overall physical resilience is already declining.
• Even if he survives, he would likely never recover enough to resume full papal duties.

Based on these medical factors, the probability of Francis making a full recovery is extremely low.

C. Updated Survival Probabilities

Taking into account historical Vatican patterns, medical risks, and current public statements, the likelihood of Pope Francis’ survival breaks down as follows:

| Scenario | Probability |
|--------------------------------------|------------|
| Already Dead (not yet announced) | 10-20% |
| Death within 24-48 hours | 30-40% |
| Death within 72 hours - 1 week | 40-50% |
| Survives more than 1 week | 10-15% |
| Recovers enough to resume duties | <5% |
D. Vatican Strategy: How They Will Handle His Death

If Pope Francis is already dead—or will die soon—the Vatican will:

1. Delay the official announcement until power struggles within the College of Cardinals are settled.
2. Gradually release medical updates to prepare the public and world leaders.
3. Time the public announcement for maximum global impact, ensuring a smooth transition to the next papacy.

Given historical precedent, the Vatican controls the narrative of papal deaths with precision. Francis’ death will not be announced until the Vatican has fully secured internal Church stability.

Key Takeaways

• The Vatican rarely announces a Pope’s critical condition in real time—historically, when they do, the Pope is either already dead or hours away from death.
• Francis’ severe medical condition makes survival beyond a few days highly unlikely.
• Even if he survives, his leadership is over—he will not return to full papal capacity.
• The Vatican will manage the timing of his death announcement to ensure a controlled transition of power.

At this point, the Vatican is in transition mode. Pope Francis is either gone or will be within days—and the battle for his successor is already well underway.

VII. The Vatican’s Next Phase: Who Will Be the Next Pope?

A. The Three Most Likely Outcomes for the Next Pope

With Pope Francis in his final days (or possibly already deceased), the College of Cardinals is already calculating the Vatican’s next steps. Based on historical voting patterns, ideological divides, and geopolitical realities, we can assess the three most likely scenarios for the next Pope.

1. A Progressive Successor (40% Probability)

A continuation of Francis’ legacy, likely from within his existing network of allies.

• Potential Candidates: Matteo Zuppi (Italy), Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines).
• Likely Policies:
  • Renewing China-Vatican agreements on bishop appointments.
  • Strengthening ties with the EU on climate, economic justice, and migration policy.
  • Further decentralizing Vatican power, giving regional churches greater autonomy.
• Implications:
  • Would deepen Vatican alignment with progressive Western policies.
  • Risks widening internal divisions between conservative and progressive factions.
  • Would likely be welcomed by U.S. Democrats and the European Union, but face traditionalist backlash.

2. A Conservative-Traditionalist Pope (35% Probability)

A hardline return to doctrinal rigidity, reversing Francis-era reforms.

• Potential Candidates: Péter Erdő (Hungary), Robert Sarah (Guinea), Rainer Woelki (Germany).
• Likely Policies:
  • Rolling back progressive social reforms, including Francis’ outreach to LGBTQ+ Catholics.
  • Stricter Vatican control over national bishops’ conferences.
  • Closer ties to nationalist Catholic movements in Hungary, Poland, and Brazil.
• Implications:
  • Would likely clash with the U.S. and EU, particularly on migration and economic policy.
  • Could align more closely with right-wing populist governments in Europe and Latin America.
  • Would spark major resistance from progressive cardinals, potentially leading to a deeper schism in the Church.

3. A Global South Pope (25% Probability)

A dramatic shift away from Western priorities, signaling a new Vatican power base.

• Potential Candidates: Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo), Oswald Gracias (India), Wilton Gregory (USA).
• Likely Policies:
  • Shifting Vatican focus toward Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where Catholicism is growing.
  • Prioritizing poverty, corruption, and economic justice over Western ideological battles.
  • Less engagement in Western political issues, focusing instead on expanding Catholic influence in developing regions.
• Implications:
  • The U.S. and EU would lose Vatican alignment, as the Church pivots away from Western liberal priorities.
  • Could position the Catholic Church as a force for anti-colonial activism.
  • The Vatican’s historical Eurocentrism would be significantly reduced, leading to long-term power shifts within the Church.

B. The Top Three Candidates to Watch

1. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – The Pragmatic Diplomat (Most Likely: 40%)

Zuppi is widely seen as the most electable progressive candidate.

• Key Strengths:
  • Played a major role in Vatican mediation on Ukraine.
  • Has support from Francis’ reformist bloc but is not as radical as some progressives.
  • Strong ties with European political elites, making him a natural bridge between the Vatican and the EU.
• Challenges:
  • Conservatives see him as too closely aligned with Francis, meaning he could struggle to gain broad support.
  • If elected, he would have to navigate Vatican financial scandals while keeping the Church politically relevant in an era of declining Western Catholic influence.

2. Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary) – The Nationalist’s Choice (Strong Contender: 35%)

Erdő is a conservative heavyweight who could restore doctrinal rigidity and realign the Vatican with nationalist movements.

• Key Strengths:
  • Backed by Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and Poland’s ruling party, making him the favored choice of Europe’s nationalist Catholic factions.
  • A skilled theologian and Vatican insider who could rebuild institutional discipline.
  • Would likely push back against progressive social policies, earning him support from African and Eastern European Catholic leaders.
• Challenges:
  • Would likely clash with the U.S. and EU, particularly on migration and economic policy.
  • His election could further fracture the Church, as moderate and progressive Catholics may resist a sharp conservative turn.

3. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo) – The Dark Horse (Wildcard: 25%)

Ambongo represents the future of Catholicism in Africa, where the faith is growing exponentially. If elected, he would be the first African Pope in over 1,500 years.

• Key Strengths:
  • Popular among Global South cardinals, who want a Pope that represents the Church’s fastest-growing regions.
  • Outspoken on corruption, economic inequality, and Western neocolonialism, making him a strong candidate for a Vatican pivot toward the Global South.
  • His election would signal a clear break from European dominance of the papacy.
• Challenges:
  • The College of Cardinals remains Eurocentric, making his election an uphill battle.
  • His economic justice stance could cause tensions with Western governments and Catholic business elites.

C. The Wildcard Scenario: A Surprise Candidate (10% Probability)

Every conclave in modern history has produced unexpected outcomes. The 2025 election could follow suit, delivering:

• A compromise candidate, chosen to break an internal voting deadlock.
• A "caretaker Pope", an older cardinal selected to serve a short transitionary term.
• A Pope from an entirely unexpected background, reflecting a power shift within the Vatican hierarchy.

If history repeats itself, the next Pope might be someone few have predicted—but whose election will redefine the Catholic Church for the next era.

Key Takeaways

• The next Pope will determine whether the Vatican remains a progressive global force, reverts to traditionalist values, or pivots toward the Global South.
• The leading candidates represent radically different futures for the Church, from progressive Vatican diplomacy (Zuppi) to conservative nationalist Catholicism (Erdő) to a full African shift (Ambongo).
• The possibility of a wildcard Pope remains high, as Vatican conclaves often result in unexpected winners.

The 2025 conclave won’t just choose a Pope—it will determine the strategic direction of one of the world’s oldest and most influential institutions.

VIII. Conclusion: The Vatican’s Crossroads

A. The End of Francis’ Papacy: A Defining Moment for the Church

With **Pope Francis in his final days—or potentially already deceased—**the Vatican stands at a historic turning point. His tenure was marked by controversial reforms, geopolitical activism, and deepening ideological divisions within the Church. His death, whenever officially announced, will trigger not just a spiritual succession, but a political and geopolitical realignment.

The Catholic Church is not just a religious institution—it is a global power center with 1.3 billion adherents, diplomatic relations with 183 countries, and influence over international policymaking. The decision of who takes the papal throne next will shape the Vatican’s global role for decades.

The next Pope will inherit:

• A divided Catholic Church, torn between progressives and traditionalists.
• A global influence crisis, as Catholicism declines in the West and rises in Africa and Asia.
• A delicate geopolitical balancing act, with the Vatican navigating its relationships with the U.S., EU, China, and nationalist movements.

This isn’t just a religious transition—it’s a geopolitical shift with worldwide consequences.

B. The Next Papacy Will Define the Vatican’s Direction for a Generation

Whoever is elected will determine whether the Vatican remains a progressive global force, reverts to traditionalist values, or pivots toward the Global South.

The Three Dominant Paths Forward

1. A Progressive Vatican (40%)
   • Continues Francis’ reforms, maintaining strong ties with the EU, UN, and Western liberal movements.
   • Expands Catholic social doctrine on climate change, migration, and economic justice.
   • Risks internal conservative backlash and further polarization within the Church.
2. A Traditionalist Vatican (35%)
   • Rolls back Francis-era social reforms, returning to doctrinal conservatism.
   • Aligns more with nationalist Catholic movements in Hungary, Poland, and Brazil.
   • Could create political rifts with Western liberal governments.
3. A Global South Vatican (25%)
   • Centers Catholic priorities on Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
   • Focuses on poverty, corruption, and economic justice, rather than Western ideological debates.
   • Reduces Vatican reliance on European and North American power structures.

Each of these paths would have significant implications for Vatican-U.S. relations, European politics, and global religious influence.

C. Geopolitical Actors Will Be Watching the Vatican Closely

As the Vatican undergoes this transition, major world powers will be maneuvering for influence.

• The United States: Wants a Vatican that remains aligned with Western liberal policies rather than a conservative backlash.
• The European Union: Prefers a Pope who continues Francis’ advocacy for migration and economic equality.
• China: Will seek to protect its Vatican-Beijing bishop agreement and prevent the Catholic Church from supporting underground churches.
• Russia: Will monitor whether the Vatican continues engaging with Moscow or aligns more closely with NATO interests.

This means that the papal election isn’t just a theological debate—it’s a geopolitical power play with nations watching closely.

D. The Church’s Ultimate Choice: Relevance or Retreat?

The Catholic Church now faces its biggest existential challenge in centuries:

• Should it fight to maintain influence in the secularizing West?
• Or should it fully embrace the Global South, where Catholicism is thriving?
• Can it remain a mediator in global diplomacy, or will ideological divisions reduce its influence?

The Vatican is entering a new era—one shaped by power struggles, political alliances, and the battle for the soul of Catholicism itself.

Pope Francis’ time is over. Now, the future of the Catholic Church hangs in the balance.

Final Thoughts: A Church at a Geopolitical Crossroads

With the death of Pope Francis imminent, the Vatican is at a pivotal moment in its 2,000-year history.

• The next Pope will determine the Church’s role in global politics, either reinforcing Francis’ legacy or reversing it entirely.
• The Catholic Church must decide whether to remain Eurocentric or pivot to the Global South, where its future growth lies.
• The battle over Francis’ successor is already underway, with Vatican power brokers and geopolitical actors watching closely.

This isn’t just a papal transition—it’s a moment that could reshape the Catholic Church for the next century.

The conclave is coming. The stakes couldn’t be higher.