The UAE’s Expanding Role in Somalia: Military, Economic, and Geopolitical Strategy

Executive Summary: The UAE’s Expanding Role in Somalia

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a major player in Somalia’s geopolitical landscape, significantly expanding its military, economic, and diplomatic presence over the past decade. Through military training programs, direct military interventions, infrastructure investments, and strategic alliances, the UAE has positioned itself as a dominant force in Somalia, shaping the country’s future in ways that often bypass the federal government in Mogadishu.

At the core of the UAE’s strategy is securing its maritime trade routes, particularly the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden, which are vital for its global shipping and energy supply chains. The UAE has leveraged its commercial investments in the Berbera Port in Somaliland, committing $442 million through DP World, and developing a highway connecting Berbera to Ethiopia, further entrenching its influence in the region.

Militarily, the UAE has engaged in training Somali forces, launching drone strikes on al-Shabaab targets, and constructing a military base near Kismayo. Its military footprint in Somalia aligns with broader counterterrorism efforts but has also created tensions with the Somali federal government, which views UAE activities as a challenge to its sovereignty. The UAE’s growing partnerships with Somaliland and Puntland, both of which operate semi-independently from Mogadishu, further complicate the situation. This is also taking place as the Trump Administration begins to use a far more aggressive operational posture in Somalia as evidenced by recent airstrikes.

Diplomatically, the UAE is engaged in a complex balancing act, countering the influence of Turkey and Qatar, both of which support the Somali government, while simultaneously competing with China’s expanding economic interests in East Africa. Additionally, the United States remains cautious about UAE’s military expansion, wary of how its actions could impact the already fragile security situation.

Looking ahead, the UAE’s long-term success in Somalia depends on its ability to manage growing tensions with Mogadishu, counter Islamist insurgencies, and navigate its geopolitical rivalries with Turkey, Qatar, and China. As its economic and military footprint expands, the UAE risks becoming further entangled in Somalia’s internal conflicts, potentially facing backlash from both local and international actors. However, if the UAE can consolidate its influence without escalating hostilities, it stands to dominate trade routes and security dynamics in the Horn of Africa for decades to come all the while the UAE continues to be one of the world's leaders in the militarization of Artificial Intelligence.

The UAE’s Strategic Motivations – Why Somalia Matters to Abu Dhabi

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is not simply expanding into Somalia for opportunistic reasons—it is executing a long-term strategic vision to secure its economic, military, and geopolitical interests in the Horn of Africa. Somalia presents both high risks and high rewards, and Abu Dhabi’s aggressive engagement in the country aligns with its broader objectives of securing trade routes, countering Islamist movements, and asserting regional dominance.

Maritime Trade and Strategic Control: Securing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

One of the UAE’s primary motivations in Somalia is securing uninterrupted maritime trade flow through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden, two of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. Over 30% of global seaborne trade passes through these waters, and Abu Dhabi is keen to control key ports and naval infrastructure to maintain economic and military supremacy in the region.

• The Berbera Port Investment: The UAE’s $442 million deal with Somaliland’s government, executed through DP World, grants it a strategic foothold in the Red Sea corridor. By developing Berbera into a major trade hub, the UAE effectively bypasses Mogadishu’s control and ensures Somaliland’s economic dependence on Abu Dhabi.
• Highway to Ethiopia: The UAE is constructing a highway linking Berbera to Ethiopia, allowing landlocked Ethiopia to diversify its maritime access away from Djibouti, which China has increasingly influenced. This move strengthens Emirati-Ethiopian economic ties, while simultaneously undermining Mogadishu’s central authority.
• Military Presence Along Shipping Routes: The UAE is reportedly constructing a military base near Kismayo, further reinforcing its ability to monitor and secure maritime trade routes.

Counterterrorism and Regional Stability: The UAE’s War Against al-Shabaab

The UAE frames its involvement in Somalia as a counterterrorism necessity, positioning itself as a critical player in the fight against al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group responsible for destabilizing Somalia and launching attacks across East Africa. However, Abu Dhabi’s security strategy also serves its broader political objectives, ensuring that the Gulf monarchies maintain control over key African security dynamics.

• UAE Military Training Programs: Since 2014, the UAE has trained thousands of Somali troops, focusing on counterinsurgency and special forces operations. The UAE’s direct engagement with Somali regional forces, such as the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), has been particularly notable.
• Drone Strikes on al-Shabaab: In June 2023, the UAE conducted a Bayraktar TB2 drone strike against al-Shabaab fighters in Galguduud, marking an escalation of direct Emirati military engagement in Somalia.
• The Broader Gulf Counterterrorism Network: The UAE’s counterterrorism presence in Somalia aligns with Saudi Arabia and Egypt’s regional security policies, while also countering Qatar and Turkey’s perceived support for Islamist factions.

Geopolitical Rivalries: UAE vs. Turkey, Qatar, and China

Somalia is not just a battlefield for counterterrorism—it is also a key geopolitical chess piece in a much larger struggle for influence between the UAE, Turkey, Qatar, and China.

Turkey: The UAE’s Biggest Regional Competitor in Somalia

• Turkey has been Somalia’s most significant international backer since 2011, providing infrastructure development, military training, and direct financial aid to Mogadishu.
• Ankara’s deep ties to the Somali federal government have created tensions with the UAE, which prefers to engage with semi-autonomous regions like Somaliland and Puntland.
• Turkish military base in Mogadishu: Turkey operates its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, training thousands of Somali federal forces, positioning itself as the primary security provider to Somalia’s government.

Qatar: The Gulf Power Struggle Continues

• Qatar has been accused of supporting Islamist factions within Somalia, including political elements linked to al-Shabaab.
• The UAE and Qatar have historically been regional rivals, with Qatar funding political groups aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, an entity viewed as a threat by Abu Dhabi.
• Qatar and Turkey’s alignment in Somalia presents a direct challenge to UAE-backed regional actors in Puntland and Somaliland.

China: The Silent but Growing Player in East Africa

• China has made strategic inroads into Djibouti, securing military and commercial access to the Red Sea.
• Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has invested heavily in East Africa, presenting a long-term economic challenge to UAE interests.
• If China expands its port infrastructure investments in Somalia, it could undermine the UAE’s dominance in the region.

Economic and Political Diversification: Expanding Beyond the Gulf

Beyond security and trade, the UAE’s interest in Somalia also stems from a need to diversify its economic and political alliances. The Gulf monarchies are increasingly looking to Africa as a new frontier for investment and influence.

• Energy Exploration: Reports suggest Emirati firms are exploring offshore oil and gas opportunities in Somali waters.
• Agricultural Investment: With food security concerns rising in the Gulf, Somalia’s arable land and water access make it a potential hub for agricultural exports to the UAE.
• Political Leverage in the African Union: By securing allies in Somalia and Ethiopia, the UAE enhances its ability to influence African Union decisions, particularly on regional security matters.

Conclusion: Somalia as a High-Risk, High-Reward Venture for the UAE

Somalia is not just a fragile state—it is a strategic prize for regional and global powers. The UAE’s aggressive expansion into Somali politics, trade, and security reflects its long-term ambition to become a dominant force in Africa. However, the risks are substantial:

• If the UAE overplays its hand, it could provoke backlash from Mogadishu, strengthening Turkey’s and Qatar’s positions.
• An escalation in military involvement, particularly through direct airstrikes and base expansion, may make the UAE a target for al-Shabaab and other militant factions.
• U.S. interests in the region could complicate UAE operations, as Washington remains cautious about how Abu Dhabi’s moves impact Somalia’s overall stability.

Ultimately, the UAE’s success in Somalia will depend on its ability to maintain influence without igniting new conflicts. If executed effectively, Abu Dhabi could reshape East Africa’s geopolitical balance in its favor for decades to come.

UAE Military Operations in Somalia – Expanding Military Presence

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has rapidly escalated its military presence in Somalia, moving beyond training programs to direct military action, drone strikes, and the construction of strategic bases. While Abu Dhabi frames its intervention as a counterterrorism effort, its deeper motives align with securing influence over maritime trade routes, regional power struggles, and counterbalancing rival actors like Turkey and Qatar.

Training Somali Forces and Providing Military Aid

Since 2014, the UAE has played a key role in training Somali security forces, focusing on special forces, maritime security, and counterterrorism operations. This program was initially well-received, but tensions with Mogadishu led to an abrupt suspension in 2018, after the Somali federal government accused the UAE of interfering in internal affairs.

• UAE Training Programs Reinstated in 2022:
  • After a four-year halt, the UAE resumed military training efforts in Somalia, prioritizing elite counterterrorism forces.
  • The program now focuses on Puntland and Somaliland security forces, bypassing federal Somali control.
• Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) and UAE’s Role:
  • UAE trained and funded the PMPF, a Puntland-based paramilitary group designed to combat piracy and al-Shabaab insurgents.
  • The UAE has provided weapons, logistics, and training personnel, effectively turning Puntland into an Emirati-backed security enclave.
• Direct UAE Military Presence in Somalia:
  • Reports indicate that the UAE has stationed troops and special forces operatives in strategic areas of Somalia, particularly in Bosaso and Berbera.
  • Emirati forces have conducted security operations independent of Somali federal oversight, leading to political friction.

Drone Strikes and Airpower: UAE’s Escalation Against al-Shabaab

In June 2023, the UAE conducted a Bayraktar TB2 drone strike on an al-Shabaab target in Galguduud, marking a major shift from indirect military support to direct engagement. This mirrors Turkey’s use of drones in Somalia, which has been a key factor in Turkey’s growing influence.

• The Strategic Impact of Drone Strikes:
  • The UAE’s decision to engage directly in airstrikes suggests a long-term commitment to military operations in Somalia.
  • This move positions the UAE as a more assertive counterterrorism actor in Africa, paralleling its operations in Libya and Yemen.
• Risk of Retaliation by al-Shabaab:
  • Al-Shabaab has previously targeted foreign military installations and is likely to view UAE bases as high-priority targets.
  • The UAE’s increased military footprint could lead to direct conflict between Emirati-backed forces and al-Shabaab insurgents.
• UAE-Turkey Drone Rivalry in Somalia:
  • The UAE and Turkey are now competing for air dominance over Somalia’s battlefield.
  • Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 drones are already supporting Mogadishu’s federal government, while UAE drones are primarily backing regional forces in Puntland and Somaliland.

UAE Military Base Construction: Securing Strategic Footholds

The UAE is reportedly building a military base near Kismayo, marking a significant expansion of its military presence in Somalia. This move aligns with broader UAE objectives of securing Red Sea trade routes and countering rivals like Turkey and Iran.

• Kismayo Base and UAE’s Future Military Plans:
  • The Kismayo base strengthens UAE’s influence over southern Somalia, complementing its existing presence in Puntland and Somaliland.
  • The UAE is rumored to be planning additional bases along Somalia’s coast, potentially near Berbera or Bosaso.
• Strategic Implications of the UAE’s Base Network:
  • UAE’s military infrastructure in Somalia, Eritrea, and Yemen suggests a broader strategy of controlling key maritime choke points.
  • By establishing bases along the Horn of Africa, the UAE enhances its ability to monitor Red Sea security and project power into the Indian Ocean.
• Tensions with Mogadishu Over Military Expansion:
  • The Somali federal government has condemned UAE military activities, viewing them as a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty.
  • Mogadishu fears that UAE backing of regional factions could further fragment Somalia, undermining national unity.

Tensions with Somalia’s Federal Government Over Military Involvement

The UAE’s growing military footprint in Somalia has fueled diplomatic tensions, particularly regarding its support for Puntland and Somaliland over the Somali federal government.

2018 UAE-Somalia Diplomatic Crisis Over Military Aid

In 2018, Somali authorities seized $9.6 million in UAE cash at Mogadishu’s airport, accusing Abu Dhabi of trying to destabilize Somalia through illicit funding of regional actors. In response, the UAE:

• Halted its military training program in Mogadishu, withdrawing support for federal Somali forces.
• Redirected military aid toward Puntland and Somaliland, intensifying Somalia’s internal divisions.
• Strengthened its relationship with Ethiopia and Kenya, both of whom have security interests in Somalia.

The UAE’s Bypassing of Mogadishu in Military Agreements

Unlike Turkey, which primarily deals with Somalia’s federal government, the UAE prefers to work directly with semi-autonomous regions. This approach has:

• Weakened the Somali government’s ability to maintain national unity, as Puntland and Somaliland grow increasingly self-reliant.
• Heightened tensions with pro-Turkish and pro-Qatar factions in Mogadishu, leading to political deadlock.

Conclusion: UAE’s Military Gambit in Somalia – Strength or Overreach?

The UAE’s military expansion in Somalia is both an opportunity and a risk. If executed effectively, Abu Dhabi could:
✅ Establish permanent military bases in Somalia, strengthening its strategic hold over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
✅ Use drone warfare to neutralize al-Shabaab threats, gaining counterterrorism credibility in the region.
✅ Secure its influence over Puntland and Somaliland, ensuring a long-term foothold in Somalia’s security landscape.

However, the risks are equally high:
⚠️ Mogadishu could retaliate by strengthening ties with Turkey and Qatar, isolating UAE-backed actors.
⚠️ Al-Shabaab may escalate attacks on UAE bases and personnel, dragging Abu Dhabi into a protracted conflict.
⚠️ U.S. and Western allies may push back against UAE military expansion, fearing instability in the region.

Ultimately, the UAE’s military strategy in Somalia reflects its broader ambition to become a dominant security power in Africa. Whether this results in long-term strategic gains or deeper entanglement in Somalia’s conflicts remains to be seen.

UAE’s Economic Investments in Somalia – Berbera Port and Infrastructure Growth

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is not only expanding its military footprint in Somalia but is also positioning itself as a dominant economic player through strategic infrastructure projects, port development, and resource investments. The UAE’s economic ambitions in Somalia revolve around securing trade routes, controlling key ports, and integrating East African markets into its Gulf-centered trade networks. However, these investments have also created tensions with Mogadishu, as Abu Dhabi primarily works with regional governments in Somaliland and Puntland, bypassing the Somali federal government.

Berbera Port: UAE’s $442M Gateway to Africa

The UAE’s biggest economic asset in Somalia is its management and expansion of Berbera Port in Somaliland, a deal executed through its state-backed company, DP World.

• Strategic Importance of Berbera:
  • The port sits on the Gulf of Aden, providing direct access to global shipping lanes.
  • Offers an alternative maritime trade route to Ethiopia, reducing its dependence on Djibouti.
  • Strengthens UAE’s control over maritime logistics in East Africa, positioning it as a regional trade hub.
• DP World’s $442 Million Investment in Berbera:
  • DP World signed a 30-year concession to develop Berbera Port, modernizing its facilities and expanding its cargo capacity.
  • The project includes a new container terminal, expected to triple cargo volume and compete with regional ports like Djibouti.
  • This investment effectively ties Somaliland’s economy to the UAE, further isolating Mogadishu.
• Port Expansion and Military Dual-Use Potential:
  • The port is strategically located near UAE’s military interests, raising concerns about dual-use capabilities.
  • Somalia’s federal government opposes the deal, calling it an illegal agreement with a breakaway region.

Highways and Trade Corridors: UAE’s Integration of Somaliland with Ethiopia

Beyond the Berbera Port expansion, the UAE is funding key infrastructure projects that reshape regional trade flows.

• The Berbera-to-Ethiopia Trade Corridor:
  • The UAE is building a highway linking Berbera to Ethiopia, offering landlocked Ethiopia an alternative to Djibouti.
  • This corridor enhances Ethiopia’s economic reliance on UAE-backed Somaliland, while weakening Somalia’s federal trade power.
  • Ethiopia has signaled support for Somaliland’s economic autonomy, further destabilizing Somalia’s unity.
• Investment in Somali Roads and Infrastructure:
  • UAE-backed projects include road expansions in Puntland and Somaliland, creating an alternative trade network.
  • These projects sideline Mogadishu, strengthening regional actors aligned with Abu Dhabi.
• Economic and Political Consequences for Mogadishu:
  • Somalia’s federal government sees these projects as an existential threat, as they erode its economic sovereignty.
  • The UAE’s investment model in Somalia parallels its Gulf strategy, where economic deals serve geopolitical interests.

Natural Resources and Energy Investments: UAE’s Long-Term Economic Play

The UAE has quietly explored Somalia’s natural resources, particularly offshore oil, minerals, and fisheries, further expanding its economic footprint in East Africa.

1. Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration

• Potential Oil Deposits: Somalia is believed to have significant untapped oil and gas reserves, attracting UAE-backed energy firms.
• Puntland’s Resource Agreements: The UAE has explored oil blocks in Puntland, bypassing Mogadishu’s regulatory authority.
• Long-Term Energy Partnerships: If confirmed, oil extraction in Somalia could reshape UAE’s economic engagement, making it a key energy partner in the region.

2. Fisheries and Maritime Investments

• Somalia has one of Africa’s richest fishing grounds, and the UAE has expressed interest in securing exclusive fishing rights.
• UAE-backed companies operate in Somali waters, exploiting resources while also providing maritime security against illegal fishing.

3. Agricultural and Food Security Investments

• Somalia’s fertile lands and water access make it an attractive investment for Gulf countries facing food security concerns.
• UAE investors have explored farmland leasing and agribusiness ventures, aiming to export Somali agricultural products to the Gulf.

Economic Rivalries and Global Competition: Who Else is Investing in Somalia?

The UAE’s economic ambitions in Somalia put it in direct competition with other regional and global powers, including Turkey, China, and the United States.

Turkey: The UAE’s Biggest Economic Rival in Somalia

• Turkey has been Somalia’s largest economic backer, investing in infrastructure, education, and military aid.
• Ankara controls Mogadishu’s main port and airport, making it a direct competitor to UAE-backed Berbera Port.
• Turkey’s economic approach aligns with Somalia’s federal government, while the UAE prefers regional partnerships in Somaliland.

China: The Silent But Growing Economic Player

• China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has led to massive investments in Djibouti, where it operates its first overseas military base.
• If China expands into Somalia, it could challenge UAE-backed infrastructure projects, particularly in port development.
• Beijing’s growing influence in East Africa could shift economic alliances, making Somalia a battleground for Chinese and Gulf interests.

United States and Western Investors: Limited Involvement

• The U.S. has focused mainly on security aid rather than economic investment in Somalia.
• Western investors remain hesitant due to instability, allowing Gulf states and Turkey to dominate Somalia’s economic landscape.

Tensions Between UAE and Somalia’s Federal Government Over Economic Deals

The UAE’s economic projects in Somalia have triggered backlash from Mogadishu, as the federal government sees them as a threat to national unity and economic sovereignty.

Mogadishu’s Opposition to UAE-Somaliland Economic Ties

• The Somali federal government does not recognize Somaliland’s independence and sees UAE deals as illegal agreements.
• Mogadishu has attempted to block DP World’s Berbera Port expansion, calling it a violation of Somali sovereignty.
• The growing economic independence of Somaliland and Puntland raises fears of a permanent fragmentation of Somalia.

The Diplomatic Fallout from UAE-Somalia Economic Clashes

• In response to Somalia’s opposition, the UAE has strengthened its alliances with Ethiopia and Kenya, both of whom have economic stakes in Somalia.
• The UAE shifted its investments from Mogadishu to regional actors, further isolating the Somali federal government.
• Some analysts believe Abu Dhabi is intentionally undermining Somali unity, ensuring a fragmented Somalia is easier to influence.

Conclusion: UAE’s Economic Strategy in Somalia – A High-Risk, High-Reward Play

The UAE’s economic expansion in Somalia is not just about profit—it is about power. By securing ports, highways, and energy deals, Abu Dhabi is:
✅ Shaping the future of maritime trade in the Horn of Africa.
✅ Tying Somaliland and Puntland to its economic sphere, reducing Mogadishu’s control.
✅ Competing directly with Turkey, Qatar, and China, ensuring its dominance in East Africa.

However, the risks remain:
⚠️ Somalia’s federal government may retaliate with legal and diplomatic measures.
⚠️ China or Turkey could outmaneuver UAE investments, reducing their long-term impact.
⚠️ Al-Shabaab and other militant groups could disrupt UAE-backed infrastructure projects.

The UAE’s economic ambitions in Somalia are deeply intertwined with its military and political strategy. As Abu Dhabi doubles down on infrastructure development, the next battle in Somalia may not be fought with drones—but with ports, trade deals, and economic alliances.

UAE’s Diplomatic Strategy in Somalia – Bypassing Mogadishu

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has taken an unconventional diplomatic approach in Somalia, favoring direct engagement with regional administrations over working with the federal government in Mogadishu. This strategy, while effective in solidifying economic and military footholds, has deepened divisions within Somalia and created friction with other international stakeholders, particularly Turkey, Qatar, and the United States.

Rather than recognizing Somalia as a single, unified entity, the UAE has prioritized alliances with breakaway regions such as Somaliland and Puntland, using economic incentives, military training, and diplomatic leverage to undermine Mogadishu’s authority. This has led to political fragmentation and accusations that Abu Dhabi is fueling instability for its own strategic benefit.

Strengthening Ties with Puntland and Somaliland

The UAE’s direct partnerships with Puntland and Somaliland are a deliberate move to bypass Mogadishu and secure long-term regional influence.

Somaliland: UAE’s Closest Partner in Somalia

• Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991, remains unrecognized internationally, but the UAE treats it as a de facto sovereign state.
• The Berbera Port deal (worth $442 million) directly benefits Somaliland’s economy, reinforcing its autonomy from Mogadishu.
• The UAE has a military presence in Berbera, with potential plans to expand its base network.

Puntland: A Semi-Autonomous Ally

• The UAE has provided weapons, military training, and funding to Puntland’s Maritime Police Force (PMPF), making it a key security partner.
• Puntland’s regional government has engaged in direct agreements with Abu Dhabi, bypassing Somalia’s federal leadership.
• The UAE’s continued support strengthens Puntland’s ability to act independently, reducing Mogadishu’s ability to enforce national unity.

Implications of UAE’s Regional Engagement

✅ Secures long-term alliances with strategic Somali regions
✅ Reduces dependence on Mogadishu for security and trade agreements
⚠️ Further weakens Somalia’s fragile national unity
⚠️ Provokes diplomatic backlash from the Somali federal government

Soft Power and Humanitarian Efforts: The UAE’s Influence Playbook

In addition to military and economic leverage, the UAE has used humanitarian aid and soft power to increase its diplomatic influence in Somalia.

• Medical and Food Aid:
  • The UAE has funded hospitals, food distribution programs, and disaster relief operations in Somalia.
  • However, most aid efforts have been concentrated in UAE-aligned regions, such as Puntland and Somaliland.
• Religious and Cultural Influence:
  • The UAE promotes moderate Islamic teachings aligned with Saudi-backed interpretations of Islam, countering Qatar’s and Turkey’s Islamist influence in Somalia.
  • This religious diplomacy helps Abu Dhabi shape local political alliances.
• Humanitarian Aid as a Diplomatic Tool:
  • By selectively providing aid, the UAE reinforces its partnerships with breakaway regions.
  • Aid serves both a practical and political purpose, ensuring that pro-UAE factions receive material support.

Soft Power Strategy: Tactical Influence or Humanitarian Effort?

✅ Improves UAE’s reputation in Somalia
✅ Allows UAE to shape political narratives through aid
⚠️ Creates dependence on UAE-backed programs
⚠️ Leads to accusations of selective support for UAE allies

Balancing UAE’s Relations with Ethiopia and Kenya

The UAE’s diplomatic maneuvering in Somalia extends beyond Somali politics—it is also tied to regional power dynamics involving Ethiopia and Kenya.

Ethiopia: UAE’s Key Partner in the Horn of Africa

• Ethiopia depends on Berbera Port for access to the sea, making UAE-Somaliland cooperation critical for Ethiopian trade.
• The UAE has supported Ethiopia’s counterterrorism efforts, aligning its Somalia strategy with Ethiopian security interests.
• Somaliland’s growing economic ties with Ethiopia further weaken Mogadishu’s authority, benefiting UAE’s regional strategy.

Kenya: A Strategic Gulf Ally

• Kenya has been involved in security operations in Somalia, particularly against al-Shabaab.
• The UAE’s investments in Kenya’s port infrastructure align with its broader Red Sea strategy.
• Nairobi has historically favored Puntland and Somaliland, making it an indirect UAE ally in Somali geopolitics.

UAE’s Regional Balancing Act

✅ Aligns with Ethiopia’s trade interests in Berbera
✅ Strengthens security cooperation with Kenya
⚠️ May create tensions if Somalia retaliates diplomatically
⚠️ UAE risks being seen as an external manipulator in East Africa

The UAE’s Diplomatic Clashes with Mogadishu

Mogadishu views the UAE’s engagement with Puntland and Somaliland as a direct attack on Somalia’s sovereignty. This has led to repeated diplomatic confrontations.

Key UAE-Somalia Diplomatic Flashpoints

1. 2018 UAE-Somalia Cash Seizure Crisis
   • Somalia’s federal government seized $9.6 million in UAE cash at Mogadishu Airport, alleging it was being used for political destabilization.
   • The UAE cut military aid to Mogadishu in response, shifting its focus to regional governments instead.
2. Mogadishu’s Attempts to Block UAE-Somaliland Deals
   • The Somali government has repeatedly declared DP World’s Berbera Port agreement illegal.
   • Somalia has lobbied the African Union and international bodies to oppose UAE-backed projects.
3. UAE’s Ongoing Workarounds
   • Despite Mogadishu’s objections, the UAE continues to negotiate directly with Puntland and Somaliland.
   • Abu Dhabi has strengthened ties with Ethiopia and Kenya, ensuring that its regional economic strategy remains intact.

Consequences of UAE-Mogadishu Diplomatic Tensions

✅ Allows UAE to consolidate its control over regional Somali governments
✅ Forces Mogadishu to compete with UAE-backed regional actors
⚠️ Risk of complete diplomatic breakdown between UAE and Somalia
⚠️ Potential for increased hostility toward UAE-backed businesses and military operations

Conclusion: UAE’s Diplomatic Strategy – A Calculated Gamble

The UAE’s diplomatic maneuvers in Somalia follow a clear and calculated strategy:

• Bypassing Mogadishu in favor of direct engagement with Somaliland and Puntland
• Using economic and military incentives to consolidate regional influence
• Aligning with Ethiopia and Kenya to protect Emirati investments

This approach maximizes Abu Dhabi’s control over trade, security, and resource agreements, but also comes with high risks:
⚠️ Mogadishu may retaliate by strengthening ties with Turkey and Qatar.
⚠️ Al-Shabaab may escalate attacks against UAE-backed entities.
⚠️ Western allies may pressure Abu Dhabi to de-escalate tensions.

As Somalia remains fractured, the UAE’s diplomatic influence continues to grow, ensuring that Abu Dhabi remains a dominant power in the Horn of Africa—regardless of whether Mogadishu likes it or not.

The UAE’s Interaction with Global Players in Somalia – A Complex Power Struggle

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is not operating in a vacuum in Somalia. Its growing economic, military, and diplomatic influence in the Horn of Africa has placed it in direct competition and cooperation with major global powers, including the United States, Turkey, Qatar, China, and Russia.

Each of these actors has competing interests in Somalia, whether in counterterrorism, economic investments, or geopolitical influence. The UAE’s aggressive expansion strategy, particularly its support for Somaliland and Puntland over Mogadishu, has created new tensions in the region, making Somalia a key battleground for global and regional power struggles.

UAE vs. United States: An Uneasy Alliance in Somalia

The United States and UAE share some strategic interests in Somalia, particularly in counterterrorism efforts against al-Shabaab, but their approaches differ significantly. While the U.S. prioritizes supporting Somalia’s federal government, the UAE bypasses Mogadishu and works with regional governments in Somaliland and Puntland.

Areas of Cooperation Between UAE and the U.S.

✅ Counterterrorism and Military Training – Both countries have invested in training Somali forces to fight al-Shabaab.
✅ Maritime Security – The UAE’s control over Somali coastal regions aligns with U.S. efforts to secure the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
✅ Economic Development – U.S. companies benefit from stability in UAE-backed ports and trade corridors.

Tensions Between UAE and the U.S. in Somalia

⚠️ U.S. Concern Over UAE’s Support for Regional Actors – The U.S. supports a strong central government, while the UAE undermines Mogadishu by working with breakaway regions.
⚠️ Military Competition – The U.S. maintains drone bases in Djibouti, and there is concern that UAE’s growing military presence could interfere with U.S. regional operations.
⚠️ Potential U.S. Sanctions or Pressure – If UAE’s regional meddling escalates conflict in Somalia, Washington could pressure Abu Dhabi diplomatically or economically.

🔎 U.S. Position: The U.S. is cautiously monitoring UAE expansion but is unlikely to intervene unless it disrupts U.S. security interests.

Turkey & Qatar: The UAE’s Biggest Rivals in Somalia

The UAE’s greatest competition in Somalia comes from Turkey and Qatar, both of which have deep-rooted economic and political ties with Mogadishu. These Gulf rivalries have transformed Somalia into a proxy battleground, with each side backing different political factions.

Turkey: The UAE’s Main Competitor for Influence in Somalia

• Turkey has been Somalia’s largest foreign backer since 2011, investing billions in infrastructure, education, and security.
• Turkey controls Mogadishu’s main airport and seaport, putting it in direct economic competition with UAE-backed Berbera Port.
• The Turkish military operates its largest overseas base in Somalia, training federal Somali forces, while the UAE trains regional militias in Puntland and Somaliland.
• Erdogan’s Government Sees Somalia as a Strategic Islamic Partner, strengthening Somalia-Turkey military ties.

📌 Conflict Flashpoint: Turkey backs Somalia’s federal government, while the UAE supports regional factions, leading to clashes over political legitimacy.

Qatar: Funding Political Opponents to the UAE

• Qatar has been accused of funding Islamist factions within Somalia, some of which have ties to al-Shabaab.
• Qatar aligns with Turkey in supporting Mogadishu, making it a direct adversary to UAE-backed Somaliland and Puntland.
• The UAE’s 2023 drone strike in Somalia was seen as a direct challenge to Qatari-backed Islamist networks.

📌 Conflict Flashpoint: The UAE believes Qatar’s presence in Somalia supports factions that destabilize the region, while Qatar views UAE’s Somaliland investments as illegal interference.

🔎 Turkey & Qatar Position: Both countries strongly oppose UAE expansion, and their deep ties with Mogadishu make them the primary geopolitical challengers to Abu Dhabi’s influence in Somalia.

China’s Expanding Presence in the Horn of Africa

While China is not yet deeply entrenched in Somalia, its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has given it significant leverage in neighboring Djibouti and Ethiopia. If China expands into Somalia, it could become a direct competitor to UAE investments.

China’s Strategic Interests in Somalia

• Djibouti’s Port & Military Base: China operates its first overseas military base in Djibouti, directly competing with UAE’s Berbera and Kismayo interests.
• Potential Somali Infrastructure Deals: If China invests in Somali roads, ports, or railways, it could undermine UAE’s economic dominance in the region.
• Security Influence: China may eventually offer security assistance to Mogadishu, further complicating UAE-backed regional autonomy efforts.

📌 Conflict Flashpoint: If China funds Mogadishu’s infrastructure projects, it could challenge UAE-backed Somaliland and Puntland investments, leading to economic and diplomatic clashes.

🔎 China’s Position: Currently neutral, but growing influence in Africa could put it on a collision course with UAE interests.

Russia & Iran: Emerging Players in Somalia’s Future

Although Russia and Iran are not dominant actors in Somalia, they could enter the geopolitical equation as Somalia’s instability attracts new foreign powers.

Russia: A Potential Security Player

• Russia has increased military engagement in Africa, particularly through the Wagner Group in Sudan, Libya, and the Central African Republic.
• If Wagner mercenaries expand into Somalia, Russia could offer military support to Mogadishu, complicating UAE’s security dominance.
• Russia’s interest in Red Sea security puts it in potential conflict with UAE naval ambitions.

📌 Conflict Flashpoint: A Russia-backed Somali military presence could challenge UAE-backed regional forces in Puntland and Somaliland.

Iran: A Destabilizing Actor?

• Iran’s influence in Yemen (through the Houthis) suggests it may extend its reach into Somalia to counter UAE interests.
• Iran has been linked to Somali arms smuggling networks, which the UAE actively opposes.
• If Iran-backed proxies become more active in Somalia, UAE military forces may respond with further military interventions.

📌 Conflict Flashpoint: UAE views Iranian presence in Somalia as a direct threat, potentially escalating tensions between Abu Dhabi and Tehran.

Conclusion: Somalia as a Geopolitical Battleground

Somalia is no longer just a conflict zone—it is a key battleground in global power politics, where the UAE is competing with Turkey, Qatar, China, Russia, and Iran.

✅ The UAE is strengthening its control over Somali trade routes and military bases.
✅ Its alliances with Somaliland and Puntland give it long-term influence.
✅ Counterterrorism efforts provide a justification for increased military presence.

However, the risks are rising:
⚠️ U.S. unease over UAE’s military expansion could lead to diplomatic friction.
⚠️ Turkey and Qatar are determined to block UAE-backed factions in Somalia.
⚠️ China’s potential entry into Somali infrastructure could challenge UAE investments.
⚠️ Russia and Iran could destabilize UAE operations through proxy warfare.

The UAE’s success in Somalia will depend on its ability to outmaneuver its geopolitical rivals without getting dragged into a broader conflict that spirals beyond its control.

Risks and Future Outlook – The High-Stakes Gamble of UAE’s Somalia Strategy

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has pursued an ambitious and aggressive expansion strategy in Somalia, using military force, economic investment, and diplomatic leverage to reshape the region in its favor. However, these gains come with significant risks that could undermine the UAE’s long-term position.

If Abu Dhabi fails to navigate the growing resistance from Somalia’s federal government, rival global powers, and militant threats, its investments and military operations could become unsustainable. This section outlines the major risks facing the UAE in Somalia and assesses the possible future outcomes of its strategy.

Escalation of Military Conflict and al-Shabaab Retaliation

The UAE’s increasingly direct military involvement in Somalia, including drone strikes and the expansion of military bases, has made it a prime target for al-Shabaab. The terrorist organization has a history of retaliating against foreign military forces, including U.S. and Turkish installations in Somalia.

• Al-Shabaab may increase attacks on UAE military facilities, personnel, and infrastructure projects.
• The UAE’s Berbera and Kismayo port investments could become primary targets for sabotage or terror attacks.
• If the UAE expands its military footprint further, it risks getting drawn into a long-term counterinsurgency.

If al-Shabaab views the UAE as an occupying force rather than a security partner, the cost of maintaining its presence in Somalia could become unsustainable.

Diplomatic Breakdown with Somalia’s Federal Government

The UAE’s open support for Somaliland and Puntland has brought it into direct conflict with Somalia’s federal government, which sees Abu Dhabi’s actions as a threat to national sovereignty.

• Mogadishu may retaliate by expelling UAE diplomats or cutting off official ties with Abu Dhabi.
• Somalia’s government could take legal action to block UAE-backed projects, particularly the Berbera port expansion.
• If tensions escalate, the UAE may lose access to key Somali airspace or shipping lanes, limiting its operational reach.

By continuing to bypass Mogadishu, the UAE risks being permanently locked out of federal-level politics, making its influence in Somalia entirely dependent on regional actors.

Tensions with the United States and Western Allies

While the UAE and the United States share counterterrorism goals, Washington has growing concerns about Abu Dhabi’s military expansion in Somalia.

• The U.S. prefers a stable, unified Somali government, while the UAE is actively undermining Mogadishu’s control.
• If UAE-backed military forces clash with U.S.-supported Somali federal troops, diplomatic fallout could occur.
• Western allies, including the European Union and the African Union, may pressure the UAE to scale back its role.

If the UAE’s actions destabilize Somalia further, it risks losing the backing of key Western partners, making its military operations and economic investments more difficult to sustain.

Rivalry with Turkey, Qatar, and China

Somalia is a battleground for global influence, and the UAE is not the only foreign power trying to shape the region’s future.

• Turkey’s deep ties to Mogadishu mean it will continue to resist UAE-backed Somaliland and Puntland initiatives.
• Qatar may increase financial support for pro-Mogadishu factions, further fueling political and military competition.
• China’s potential expansion into Somali infrastructure could challenge UAE’s economic dominance, particularly in port development.

If these rival powers coordinate their opposition to UAE expansion, Abu Dhabi could find itself losing ground in Somalia despite its early gains.

Long-Term Sustainability: Can the UAE Hold Its Position?

The UAE’s entire strategy in Somalia hinges on maintaining its influence over Somaliland and Puntland while keeping al-Shabaab and rival global powers at bay. However, several long-term challenges remain:

• If the UAE cannot secure its military positions, it may be forced to scale back its counterterrorism operations.
• If Turkey and Qatar continue strengthening Somalia’s federal government, UAE-backed regional governments could lose power.
• If China enters Somali infrastructure investment, Abu Dhabi’s economic advantage could be significantly reduced.

Abu Dhabi must decide whether to escalate its involvement—risking greater military and diplomatic entanglements—or find a way to consolidate its existing gains without provoking additional conflict.

Conclusion: Will the UAE Win the Somalia Power Struggle?

The UAE’s presence in Somalia is a bold geopolitical move, but it is not guaranteed to succeed.

• If the UAE manages to hold its ground, it will control key trade routes, maintain strong military positions, and become a dominant player in East Africa.
• If it overreaches, faces too much opposition, or suffers major military setbacks, it may be forced to withdraw or scale down its ambitions.

Somalia remains one of the most volatile regions in the world, and the UAE is playing a high-risk game with uncertain long-term results. Whether Abu Dhabi emerges as the dominant foreign power in Somalia or is forced to retreat will depend on how well it navigates these growing threats.

Final Assessment: The UAE’s Future in Somalia

The next few years will determine whether the UAE’s investments in Somalia solidify its influence or unravel under pressure. As rival powers, insurgent groups, and diplomatic tensions continue to escalate, the UAE’s ability to adapt to changing conditions will be the ultimate test of its regional strategy.