Alberta Election 2025: Can Mark Carney Challenge Poilievre?

Introduction: The Battle for Alberta in 2025

Alberta has long been a Conservative stronghold, a province where the Liberal Party is little more than an afterthought in federal elections. Since the collapse of the provincial Alberta Liberal Party and the rise of conservative populism, Alberta’s federal voting patterns have been deeply entrenched, with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives holding 30 out of 34 seats in the last election. But in 2025, with Mark Carney leading the Liberals and Donald Trump threatening Canada’s economy, Alberta is shaping up to be one of the most politically volatile provinces in the country.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. While Poilievre remains Alberta’s dominant political force, Carney is pushing a new Liberal economic agenda and repealing the consumer carbon tax—one of the most unpopular federal policies in Alberta. Meanwhile, the rise of the “Maple MAGA” movement is fueling a surge of Trump-style nationalism in the province, with American-backed political operatives spreading disinformation and foreign interests meddling in Canada’s election. With Trump’s threats of tariffs and economic warfare, Alberta’s energy sector faces significant uncertainty, and Poilievre’s alignment with the U.S. right-wing may become both a strength and a liability.

Can Carney flip even a handful of seats in Alberta, or is the province destined to remain a Conservative monolith? Will the NDP hold its ground in Edmonton, or will Carney’s Liberals absorb left-leaning votes? And how much influence will the U.S. election and foreign-backed disinformation campaigns have on Alberta’s vote?

This analysis breaks down the 2025 Alberta election battle, examining historical voting trends, the major players, key issues, U.S. interference, and the scenarios that could shape the province’s role in deciding Canada’s future.

Alberta’s Historical Voting Trends: Why It’s a Conservative Stronghold

Alberta has been the bedrock of Canadian conservatism for decades. Since the Reform Party era in the 1990s, the province has overwhelmingly supported right-leaning candidates, first under Preston Manning, then through the Canadian Alliance, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, and now Pierre Poilievre’s CPC. While the rest of Canada has seen greater electoral volatility, Alberta remains deeply resistant to progressive policies, high taxation, and federal overreach—especially from Liberal governments based in Ottawa.

Alberta’s Last Three Federal Elections: A Conservative Monolith

• 2019 Election: Conservatives won 33 out of 34 seats in Alberta, with only Edmonton Strathcona going NDP.
• 2021 Election: Another near-sweep, with 30 Conservative MPs elected, the Liberals taking Calgary Skyview, and the NDP holding Edmonton Strathcona.
• 2025 Projections: Poilievre’s Conservatives still dominate, but Carney’s Liberals are targeting key urban ridings in Edmonton and Calgary.

Historically, the Liberal brand is toxic in Alberta. The National Energy Program (NEP) of the 1980s under Pierre Trudeau devastated the province’s oil economy, leaving a political scar that has never fully healed. His son, Justin Trudeau, deepened this divide, imposing carbon taxes, regulatory red tape (Bill C-69, the so-called "no more pipelines" bill), and net-zero targets that Albertans saw as a direct attack on their livelihoods.

While some Albertans may be open to Carney’s leadership, Poilievre still holds a massive advantage in a province that views federal Liberals as untrustworthy outsiders. However, shifting urban demographics, economic instability, and Trump’s impact on Alberta’s economy may crack the Conservative fortress just enough for Carney to make gains.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood of Conservatives retaining 80%+ of Alberta seats: 85% (High Confidence, ±4%)
• Likelihood of Liberals gaining at least one new seat: 45% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)
• Likelihood of NDP winning more than one seat in Alberta: 40% (Moderate Confidence, ±7%)

With Alberta’s history as a Conservative stronghold, Carney’s challenge is immense but not impossible—especially if external factors like Trump’s tariffs push economic moderates toward a more pragmatic alternative.

The Key Players: Carney vs. Poilievre

The 2025 federal election in Alberta will be shaped by two dominant political figures: Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. Both men represent starkly different visions for Canada and Alberta’s place within it. While Poilievre has cultivated a fiercely loyal base among Alberta’s conservative and populist voters, Carney brings economic credibility, a pragmatic Liberal agenda, and the backing of the business elite. However, the NDP and other minor parties could also play a spoiler role in several ridings.

Mark Carney: The Liberal Challenger

Strengths: ✅ Economic Expertise: Carney’s tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England gives him unmatched credibility on economic management—something that may resonate with Alberta’s business conservatives.
✅ Carbon Tax Repeal: By eliminating the consumer carbon tax, Carney is neutralizing one of the Liberals’ biggest electoral liabilities in Alberta.
✅ Trump Trade War Response: With Trump threatening tariffs on Canadian goods, Carney is positioning himself as the experienced, steady hand to manage U.S.-Canada economic relations.

Weaknesses: ❌ Deep Liberal Brand Damage in Alberta: No matter what policies Carney adopts, many Albertans will still view him as a “Trudeau Liberal” and refuse to support him.
❌ Lack of Political Experience: Unlike Poilievre, Carney has never run in a federal election before, making his ability to connect with voters an unknown factor.
❌ Skepticism from the Left: NDP voters and environmental activists distrust Carney due to his past ties to corporate banking and energy sector investments.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood of Carney improving Liberal performance in Alberta vs. 2021: 70% (High Confidence, ±5%)
• Likelihood of Carney flipping more than one seat: 40% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)

Pierre Poilievre: The Conservative Incumbent

Strengths: ✅ Populist Appeal: Poilievre dominates Alberta’s right-wing electorate, using anti-Trudeau messaging, pro-energy policies, and economic frustration to rally voters.
✅ “Freedom” Branding: His attacks on federal overreach, Liberal elitism, and carbon taxes play perfectly in Alberta.
✅ Trump-Style Nationalism Resonates with Maple MAGA: The rise of U.S.-style right-wing populism in Canada makes Poilievre even stronger among rural voters and fringe nationalist groups.

Weaknesses: ❌ Trump’s Economic Chaos: If Trump starts actively harming Alberta’s economy with tariffs, Poilievre may be forced to distance himself—risking alienation from his hard-right base.
❌ No Serious Urban Growth Strategy: The CPC dominates rural Alberta, but Poilievre has no clear plan to win over moderate, urban voters in Calgary and Edmonton.
❌ Potential Overreach: If Poilievre embraces Maple MAGA too much, it could backfire among business conservatives, women, and centrists uncomfortable with extremism.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood of Poilievre maintaining Conservative dominance in Alberta: 85% (High Confidence, ±4%)
• Likelihood of Poilievre expanding CPC seat count in Alberta: 60% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)

Wildcards: NDP, PPC, and Independents

While Alberta remains a Conservative vs. Liberal fight, other political factions could still influence key battleground ridings.

🔸 NDP (Jagmeet Singh):

• Current seat: Edmonton Strathcona (Held by Heather McPherson)
• Challenges: The NDP could lose support to Carney’s Liberals if left-leaning voters see Carney as a better option to block Poilievre.
• Opportunity: The NDP can play spoiler in Edmonton, potentially splitting the anti-Poilievre vote and preventing Liberal gains.

📊 Probability of NDP retaining Edmonton Strathcona: 60% (Moderate Confidence, ±8%)

🔸 People’s Party of Canada (Maxime Bernier):

• Far-right populist influence in Alberta.
• Takes votes away from Poilievre in rural areas but not enough to flip seats.

📊 Probability of PPC winning a seat in Alberta: 5% (Low Confidence, ±10%)

🔸 Independents / Wildcards:

• Far-right or populist independents could emerge in protest against mainstream parties.
• Unlikely to win but could splinter the Conservative vote.

📊 Probability of an independent candidate winning a seat: 10% (Low Confidence, ±12%)

Key Takeaways:

🔹 Poilievre enters Alberta as the overwhelming favorite, but his ties to Trump could become a liability.
🔹 Carney is focusing on economic credibility, but the Liberal brand is still damaged in Alberta.
🔹 The NDP and PPC may act as spoilers, making battleground ridings unpredictable.

While Poilievre holds the advantage, Carney’s ability to win even a few urban seats will depend on Alberta’s economic climate and whether Poilievre stumbles on foreign policy and trade. The battle for Alberta is not about whether Conservatives win—it’s about whether they show cracks.

The Big Issues: What Albertans Care About in 2025

As the 2025 federal election approaches, several major policy issues will define Alberta’s voting landscape. While economic concerns, energy policy, and federal-provincial relations have historically been the dominant themes, new pressures—like Trump’s potential trade war with Canada and rising nationalist sentiment—are reshaping the conversation.

🔹 1. The Carbon Tax Rollback: Will It Save Carney?

One of Carney’s first major moves was to repeal the consumer carbon tax, a policy that had been universally despised in Alberta. The carbon tax was one of the biggest drivers of Liberal unpopularity in the province, with farmers, truckers, and oil workers seeing it as a direct attack on Alberta’s economy.

Why It Matters:

• Carney’s repeal could soften resistance to the Liberals in urban areas.
• Poilievre will argue that Carney only repealed it due to Conservative pressure.
• The industrial carbon tax (on large emitters) still exists, which Poilievre will weaponize.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood that carbon tax rollback improves Carney’s Alberta numbers: 60% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)
• Likelihood that Poilievre still dominates on energy policy: 85% (High Confidence, ±4%)

🔹 2. Alberta’s Energy Sector: Can Poilievre Keep the Oil Vote?

For decades, the oil and gas industry has shaped Alberta’s economy and politics. While Carney has made efforts to distance himself from Trudeau’s climate-first agenda, Poilievre remains the undisputed champion of the pro-oil, anti-regulation base.

Key Issues in Energy Policy:

• Pipelines: Poilievre wants to fast-track new energy infrastructure, while Carney offers a "pragmatic" approach balancing industry and climate.
• Federal vs. Provincial Control: Poilievre supports Danielle Smith’s push for provincial energy sovereignty.
• Climate Policy Tension: Carney will face skepticism on whether he will actually protect the oil sector or just shift the Liberal climate strategy.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood that energy remains the #1 Alberta issue: 80% (High Confidence, ±5%)
• Likelihood that Carney successfully reassures oil workers: 30% (Moderate Confidence, ±7%)

🔹 3. Economic Concerns: Inflation, Jobs, and Interest Rates

After years of post-pandemic inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty, Albertans are feeling the pinch. While Poilievre has attacked Liberal policies for creating the crisis, Carney’s banking background gives him credibility on economic management.

What Voters Care About:

• Interest Rates: As a former Bank of Canada Governor, Carney will argue that he is uniquely qualified to stabilize the economy.
• Cost of Living Crisis: Poilievre’s "Axe the Tax" messaging resonates, but Carney’s tax rebates and business incentives could appeal to urban professionals.
• Wages & Jobs: Alberta’s job market is energy-dependent, and voters will punish any leader they see as threatening oil & gas employment.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood that economic issues dominate Alberta’s vote choice: 85% (High Confidence, ±4%)
• Likelihood that Carney gains economic credibility among Alberta voters: 50% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)

🔹 4. Trump’s Trade War: The X-Factor That Could Shake Alberta’s Economy

Donald Trump has openly threatened Canada with new tariffs, calling the country a "globalist tax haven" and hinting at penalties on steel, agriculture, and even oil. This is potentially disastrous for Alberta, which depends heavily on U.S. trade for energy exports.

The Alberta Trade War Dilemma:

• Poilievre’s Trump Problem: Poilievre has embraced Trump-style politics, but a Trump-led economic war on Canada could force him to either break with Trump or defend Alberta’s economy.
• Carney’s "Stability Pitch": Carney will argue that Poilievre can’t handle foreign relations, while he is the experienced leader Canada needs.
• Farmers & Industry Leaders Panic: Alberta’s ranchers, steelworkers, and oil executives are already uneasy about Trump’s protectionism.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood of Trump imposing economic penalties on Canada before the election: 65% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)
• Likelihood that Poilievre will be forced to break with Trump publicly: 50% (Moderate Confidence, ±8%)

Key Takeaways:

🔹 Carbon tax rollback helps Carney, but Alberta’s energy industry still backs Poilievre.
🔹 Economic uncertainty favors Poilievre, but Carney has a path to credibility.
🔹 Trump’s tariffs could be a major disruptor, forcing Poilievre into a difficult position.

As election day approaches, Alberta’s biggest concerns remain economic survival, energy security, and the looming shadow of U.S. political influence. The candidate who can best navigate these landmines will have the strongest path to victory in Alberta’s key battlegrounds.

The Maple MAGA Factor: U.S. Interference & the Radicalization of Alberta Politics

While Alberta has always been Canada’s most conservative province, the 2025 election is different. The rise of “Maple MAGA”—a growing faction of Trump-inspired, right-wing nationalist movements in Canada—has radicalized Alberta’s political culture, aligning it more closely with U.S.-style populism. At the same time, foreign-backed disinformation and American dark money are fueling an unprecedented level of U.S. interference in Canada’s election.

For Carney and the Liberals, this represents a serious threat—but also a potential opening if they can expose and counteract it. For Poilievre, it’s both an asset and a risk: while Maple MAGA’s influence energizes his base, its extremism and Trump connections could make him vulnerable among moderate conservatives and business leaders.

🔹 1. What Is Maple MAGA and Why Does It Matter?

"Maple MAGA" refers to a growing right-wing nationalist movement in Canada, heavily inspired by Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) brand of populist conservatism.

Key Features of Maple MAGA:

• Anti-Elite, Anti-Globalism Rhetoric: Opposition to centralized government, the Bank of Canada, and "globalist" institutions like the World Economic Forum.
• Hostility Toward Mainstream Media & Universities: Alberta has seen a surge in conspiracy-driven, anti-establishment sentiment, fueled by platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Telegram, and YouTube.
• Christian Nationalism: The rise of faith-based right-wing activism, particularly in rural Alberta and Saskatchewan.
• U.S. Influence & Political Cross-Border Radicalization: A growing number of Canadian influencers are embedded in U.S. conservative networks, amplifying American-style culture wars in Alberta.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood of Maple MAGA influencing Alberta’s election results: 75% (High Confidence, ±5%)
• Likelihood that Poilievre will have to publicly distance himself from far-right elements: 50% (Moderate Confidence, ±7%)

🔹 2. U.S. Disinformation & Election Interference in Alberta

The 2025 Canadian federal election is being actively shaped by U.S.-based political forces. Through disinformation campaigns, targeted funding, and social media manipulation, American interests are attempting to tilt Alberta’s political landscape further right.

How U.S. Interference Works:

• Dark Money from Conservative Super PACs: American right-wing networks funnel money into Canadian organizations, supporting anti-carbon tax lobbying, pro-energy campaigns, and nationalist movements.
• Online Disinformation Campaigns: Coordinated networks of fake news websites, Twitter/X bots, and anonymous Telegram groups spread anti-Liberal, pro-Poilievre propaganda.
• The Alberta-U.S. Energy Nexus: Alberta’s oil industry is deeply tied to U.S. Republican donors, making it a target for foreign-backed policy influence.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood of foreign-backed disinformation playing a role in Alberta’s election: 80% (High Confidence, ±5%)
• Likelihood that Canadian authorities will investigate foreign influence before the election: 30% (Moderate Confidence, ±8%)

🔹 3. Poilievre’s Trump Problem: Strategic Asset or Political Liability?

Poilievre has never fully embraced or rejected Trump, walking a fine line between tapping into MAGA populism and maintaining mainstream electability. But with Trump openly threatening Canada with tariffs and economic retaliation, Poilievre’s association with the U.S. right wing could backfire.

Poilievre’s Dilemma:

• If he fully embraces Trump, he risks alienating business leaders, moderates, and anti-American nationalists in Alberta.
• If he distances himself from Trump, he could lose support from the hyper-loyal Maple MAGA faction.
• If Trump slaps tariffs on Canada, Poilievre will be forced to either condemn Trump or justify the economic fallout.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood of Poilievre being forced to clarify his stance on Trump: 65% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)
• Likelihood that Trump’s economic policies harm Poilievre’s support in Alberta: 50% (Moderate Confidence, ±7%)

🔹 4. Could American-Style Election Denialism Come to Canada?

One of the biggest concerns in the 2025 election is whether far-right elements in Alberta will refuse to accept the election results. In the U.S., Trump’s election fraud claims led to the January 6th insurrection—and some Maple MAGA influencers are already pushing similar narratives in Canada.

Key Warning Signs:

• Increasing Rhetoric About "Rigged Elections": Canadian conspiracy groups are already echoing Trump’s language about the electoral system being "stolen."
• Right-Wing Media Ecosystem: Channels like Rebel News, True North, and Western Standard are pushing claims of Liberal electoral interference.
• Potential for Post-Election Unrest: If Poilievre loses the national election but dominates Alberta, his supporters may challenge the legitimacy of a Liberal government.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood of election denialism becoming a major issue in Alberta: 70% (High Confidence, ±6%)
• Likelihood of political unrest in Alberta after the election: 40% (Moderate Confidence, ±8%)

Key Takeaways:

🔹 Maple MAGA is real and growing, deeply influencing Alberta’s political culture.
🔹 U.S. disinformation and dark money are actively shaping Alberta’s election narrative.
🔹 Poilievre is stuck in a balancing act—he needs Maple MAGA but can’t afford to be fully tied to Trump.
🔹 There is a rising risk of election denialism and post-election instability in Alberta.

In previous elections, Alberta’s role was predictable. But in 2025, foreign interference, nationalist radicalization, and the Trump-Poilievre dynamic are making Alberta one of the most unpredictable battlegrounds in Canada.

Carney’s Path to Victory in Alberta: Can He Steal Seats?

Mark Carney does not need to win Alberta—he just needs to flip enough seats to weaken Poilievre’s dominance and secure a viable Liberal foothold in the province. The question is: Where can he win? And what strategy will allow him to break through Alberta’s Conservative wall?

🔹 1. Where Can the Liberals Win? Targeted Ridings

While Alberta overwhelmingly favors the Conservatives, a few urban ridings remain competitive. Based on demographics, voting trends, and campaign focus, Carney’s best chances for gains are in Edmonton and Calgary.

Most Flippable Ridings for Liberals

🟢 Edmonton Centre (Highly Competitive - Toss-Up)

• 2021 Result: Conservative win by 2% margin over the Liberals.
• Why It’s in Play: Diverse urban electorate, professional class, and young voters who may favor Carney’s economic pragmatism.
• Path to Victory: Carney must absorb NDP votes and focus on affordability & job security.

🟢 Calgary Skyview (Leans Liberal - Good Opportunity)

• 2021 Result: Liberal hold with 6% margin.
• Why It’s in Play: Ethnic diversity, business-class voters, and a growing Liberal base.
• Path to Victory: Carney needs to reinforce economic stability messaging.

🟢 Edmonton Strathcona (Leans NDP - Potential Liberal Steal)

• 2021 Result: NDP won with 18% margin over CPC.
• Why It’s in Play: Left-leaning electorate, but could shift Liberal if Carney consolidates progressive votes.
• Path to Victory: Persuade moderate NDP voters that he’s the best anti-Poilievre option.

🟢 Calgary Centre (Leans Conservative - Liberal Long Shot) - THE HOME OF PRIME ROGUE INC

• 2021 Result: CPC won by 5% margin over Liberals.
• Why It’s in Play: Urban professionals & centrists who may prefer a Carney-led economy over Poilievre’s populism.
• Path to Victory: If Poilievre alienates moderates, Carney has an opening.

📊 Probability Assessment:

• Likelihood of Liberals winning at least 2 seats in Alberta: 55% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)
• Likelihood of Liberals flipping Edmonton Centre: 50% (Moderate Confidence, ±7%)
• Likelihood of Liberals flipping Calgary Skyview: 70% (High Confidence, ±5%)

🔹 2. Carney’s Strategy: How to Crack the Conservative Wall

Winning even a handful of seats in Alberta will require a laser-focused campaign strategy. Carney cannot run as a traditional Liberal—he needs to position himself as a pragmatic, economically responsible alternative to Poilievre.

Carney’s Three-Part Alberta Strategy:

(1) Economic Competence Over Ideology

📌 Message: “I’m the guy who can protect Alberta’s economy from Trump’s chaos.”

• Why It Works: Many business conservatives are uneasy about Poilievre’s economic populism and U.S. trade instability.
• Execution:
  • Focus on job creation, trade stability, and investment-friendly policies.
  • Frame Poilievre as reckless and untested.
  • Use Trump’s tariffs against Poilievre, arguing that Carney can negotiate better trade deals.

📊 Probability of Carney gaining economic credibility in Alberta: 50% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)

(2) Energy Realism Without Climate Extremism

📌 Message: “I will defend Alberta’s energy industry, not shut it down.”

• Why It Works: Poilievre has framed Carney as an anti-oil "globalist banker"—Carney needs to neutralize that attack.
• Execution:
  • Reaffirm support for energy investment & responsible development.
  • Emphasize federal-provincial cooperation to avoid appearing hostile to Alberta.
  • Offer transition incentives for oil-sector workers to win over moderates.

📊 Probability of Carney successfully neutralizing Poilievre’s oil industry attacks: 30% (Moderate Confidence, ±7%)

(3) Subtly Undermine Poilievre’s Populism Without Alienating Conservatives

📌 Message: “Canada needs stability, not chaos.”

• Why It Works: Many moderate conservatives and business leaders view Poilievre as too radical.
• Execution:
  • Attack Poilievre’s lack of governing experience.
  • Highlight CPC ties to U.S. extremists & election deniers.
  • Position Carney as a calm, professional leader in uncertain times.

📊 Probability of Carney successfully peeling away moderate conservatives from Poilievre: 40% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)

🔹 3. Poilievre’s Counterattack: How the Conservatives Will Defend Alberta

Poilievre knows that Alberta is his stronghold, but he cannot afford urban Liberal gains. His main strategy will be to tie Carney to past Liberal failures while doubling down on energy, freedom, and populist messaging.

🔴 Attack Line #1: “Carney is an Out-of-Touch Globalist”

• Tactic: Paint Carney as an elitist banker aligned with Trudeau and the World Economic Forum.
• Target Audience: Rural conservatives, hard-right populists, and energy workers.

🔴 Attack Line #2: “Liberals Will Still Kill Alberta’s Oil Industry”

• Tactic: Emphasize Carney’s past climate activism and argue that he can’t be trusted to protect oil jobs.
• Target Audience: Energy workers, small businesses, and provincial-right voters.

🔴 Attack Line #3: “Only Conservatives Will Fight Back Against Trudeau and U.S. Interference”

• Tactic: Position Poilievre as the only leader strong enough to stand up to both Trudeau AND Trump.
• Target Audience: Nationalists, libertarians, and Western sovereignty supporters.

📊 Probability of Poilievre successfully neutralizing Carney’s urban Alberta strategy: 70% (High Confidence, ±5%)

Key Takeaways:

🔹 Carney has an opportunity in Edmonton & Calgary but must run a centrist, business-friendly campaign.
🔹 Poilievre will aggressively tie Carney to past Liberal failures and oil industry skepticism.
🔹 Trump’s trade war could disrupt Alberta’s economy and change voter dynamics.
🔹 If Carney wins even 2-3 seats, it signals cracks in Poilievre’s Alberta dominance.

While Poilievre remains heavily favored, Alberta’s urban battlegrounds are not as secure as they once were. If Carney executes a strong campaign focused on economic stability and trade, he may pull off a rare Liberal breakthrough in the province.

Worst-Case & Best-Case Scenarios for Each Party

As the 2025 Alberta election battle heats up, both Carney’s Liberals and Poilievre’s Conservatives face high-risk, high-reward scenarios. While Alberta is still overwhelmingly conservative, external factors like Trump’s tariffs, economic instability, and growing urban discontent could create unexpected cracks in Poilievre’s stronghold.

🔹 1. Best-Case Scenarios

✅ Liberal Best-Case: A Small but Symbolic Breakthrough

✅ Seats Won: 3-5 seats in Alberta (Edmonton Centre, Calgary Skyview, plus potential upsets in Calgary Centre or Edmonton Strathcona).
✅ Why It’s Possible:

• Carney’s business-friendly approach gains traction with fiscal conservatives.
• Trump’s tariffs destabilize Alberta’s economy, creating voter uncertainty.
• Poilievre overcommits to the far right, alienating moderates.
• NDP collapse in Edmonton allows Liberal consolidation of progressive votes.

📊 Probability of this scenario happening: 40% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)

✅ Conservative Best-Case: A Total Lockdown of Alberta

✅ Seats Won: All 34 seats (complete CPC sweep).
✅ Why It’s Possible:

• Carney fails to convince Albertans he’s different from Trudeau.
• Poilievre capitalizes on Alberta’s economic fears and anti-Liberal sentiment.
• Urban voters prioritize energy security over climate policy.
• Trump’s trade war doesn’t hit hard enough before the election.

📊 Probability of this scenario happening: 60% (High Confidence, ±5%)

🔹 2. Worst-Case Scenarios

❌ Liberal Worst-Case: Alberta Remains a Liberal Graveyard

❌ Seats Won: 0-1 seats (Only Calgary Skyview remains Liberal, no gains elsewhere).
❌ Why It Could Happen:

• Poilievre dominates, framing Carney as an out-of-touch Ottawa banker.
• Urban voters don’t buy Carney’s pro-energy messaging.
• The Liberals fail to counter U.S. disinformation and Maple MAGA attacks.
• NDP voters refuse to shift Liberal, splitting the anti-CPC vote.

📊 Probability of this scenario happening: 55% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)

❌ Conservative Worst-Case: Losing Key Urban Strongholds

❌ Seats Won: Conservatives drop to 27-30 seats, losing Edmonton Centre, Calgary Skyview, and another urban seat.
❌ Why It Could Happen:

• Economic instability and Trump’s tariffs cause Alberta business leaders to panic.
• Poilievre’s populism turns off educated, urban professionals.
• Alberta voters turn against extreme nationalist rhetoric.
• Carney’s pragmatic pitch resonates with moderates.

📊 Probability of this scenario happening: 30% (Moderate Confidence, ±7%)

🔹 3. Role of External Factors in Shaping the Election

🟥 Trump’s Tariffs & Trade War
🔸 Scenario: If Trump imposes tariffs on Canadian steel, oil, and agriculture, it could shake Alberta’s economy and make Poilievre look weak on trade.
🔸 Impact: Helps Carney by reinforcing his stability argument while putting Poilievre on the defensive.

📊 Likelihood of significant U.S. tariffs before the election: 65% (Moderate Confidence, ±6%)

🟩 Maple MAGA & U.S. Election Interference
🔸 Scenario: U.S.-backed right-wing nationalist groups push disinformation and amplify anti-Liberal messaging.
🔸 Impact: Helps Poilievre, as it mobilizes his most extreme base while making it harder for Carney to gain traction.

📊 Likelihood of major U.S. disinformation campaigns in Alberta: 80% (High Confidence, ±5%)

🟦 Alberta’s Business & Energy Sector Response
🔸 Scenario: If Alberta’s energy and corporate leaders signal confidence in Carney, it could shift elite conservative voters toward the Liberals.
🔸 Impact: Helps Carney, but only in urban ridings.

📊 Likelihood of Alberta business leaders warming to Carney: 40% (Moderate Confidence, ±7%)

🔹 4. Election Night Scenarios: What to Watch For

🔹 Early signs that Carney is gaining ground:

• High Liberal turnout in Edmonton Centre & Calgary Skyview.
• Urban voters breaking against Poilievre in polls leading up to election day.
• Business leaders quietly endorsing Liberal economic plans.

🔹 Early signs that Poilievre is crushing the competition:

• Massive rural turnout in southern Alberta & oil regions.
• Urban ridings staying Conservative by comfortable margins.
• High anti-Trudeau sentiment driving record CPC support.

Key Takeaways:

🔹 If Poilievre sweeps Alberta, Carney’s Liberals are effectively locked out of the province for another election cycle.
🔹 If Carney flips even 2-3 seats, it signals cracks in Poilievre’s Alberta dominance.
🔹 Trump’s trade war could be a game-changer, forcing economic moderates to rethink their support for Poilievre.
🔹 The role of Maple MAGA and U.S. election interference could skew narratives in Poilievre’s favor.

With Alberta’s historical conservatism, economic anxiety, and nationalist undercurrents, Poilievre remains the overwhelming favorite—but Carney has an opening in key battlegrounds. Whether Alberta remains completely locked down for the Conservatives or begins a slow shift toward urban Liberal competitiveness will be one of the most important election night stories to watch.

Conclusion: The 2025 Alberta Election Will Be a Proxy Battle for Canada’s Future

The 2025 Alberta election battle is about more than just seat counts. It’s a proxy war over the direction of Canada itself, fought between two radically different visions of the country.

🔹 Pierre Poilievre represents Alberta’s past and present—a deeply conservative, pro-energy, anti-Ottawa stronghold. If he dominates Alberta again, it cements the province as the Conservative heartland and gives him a powerful mandate to push his populist, anti-Liberal agenda.

🔹 Mark Carney represents a new possibility—an Alberta that is still energy-driven but more economically pragmatic, open to trade, and less reflexively anti-Liberal. If he cracks Alberta’s Conservative wall, it signals that Canada’s urban, business-friendly conservatives may be moving toward a new political alignment.

But beyond domestic politics, U.S. interference looms large. If Trump’s tariffs hit Alberta hard, and if Maple MAGA radicals push election denialism, the 2025 election could unleash political instability in ways Canada has never seen before.

📊 Final Probability Assessments:
✅ Likelihood of Alberta remaining overwhelmingly Conservative: 90% (High Confidence, ±3%)
✅ Likelihood of Liberal gains in Alberta: 30% (Moderate Confidence, ±5%)
✅ Likelihood of Alberta playing a decisive role in the federal election outcome: 85% (High Confidence, ±3%)
✅ Likelihood of U.S.-driven election interference shaping Alberta’s vote: 80% (High Confidence, ±5%)

🔹 If Poilievre dominates Alberta completely, he enters office with a mandate for hard-right, nationalist governance.
🔹 If Carney makes inroads, it suggests Canada’s urban conservatives may be ready for a post-Poilievre alternative.

Either way, Alberta’s results will send a powerful message—not just to Canada, but to the world.