Operation Epic Fury: US-Israel Strikes on Iran - February 28, 2028, 0910 UTC Situation Report 2

Operation Epic Fury Regional Situational Assessment

The official US military designation for strikes against Iran launched February 28, 2026 is “Operation Epic Fury,” announced via the Pentagon’s X (formerly Twitter) account. This is distinct from Israel’s operational codenames — “Operation Roar of the Lion” (Netanyahu’s designation) and “Operation Shield of Judah” (IDF’s initial codename). Regarding Bahrain: at least one confirmed explosion or physical attack on NSA Bahrain / US Fifth Fleet headquarters has been verified by credible open source as of approximately 0300 MST. Emergency sirens have sounded across Bahrain, shelter-in-place orders have been issued, and DoD authorized dependent departures — indicators of kinetic impact but severity unknown. Iran’s immediate retaliation has been primarily directed at Israel, but also includes Gulf-based US installations and the territories of American allies in the region. This assessment covers both intelligence requirements in full.

OPERATION EPIC FURY: Confirmed Pentagon Designation

“Operation Epic Fury” was announced by the Department of Defense via its official X account shortly after strikes commenced. This is corroborated across multiple independent, high-confidence sources: Reuters wire flash (0334–0337 EST), Xinhua flash, ABC News live updates, CBS News live updates, and multiple international aggregators. ABC News correspondent Luis Martinez confirmed the US strikes involve a mix of US attack aircraft operating from aircraft carriers and Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from Navy vessels in the region.

The operation name hierarchy is now confirmed as follows:

Designation	Entity	Source
Operation Epic Fury	US Military / Pentagon	Pentagon X post, Reuters wire
Operation Roar of the Lion	Israel (Netanyahu’s personal designation)	PM video statement
Operation Shield of Judah	IDF (initial codename)	Israeli state media / IDF
Operation Midnight Hammer	US (June 2025 nuclear strikes)	Trump video reference

Trump confirmed the operation via Truth Social video from Mar-a-Lago: “A short time ago the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.” He described it as “a massive and ongoing operation” with objectives to “destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground” and “annihilate their navy.” He explicitly called for regime change, telling Iranians: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.” CENTCOM initially declined comment to RIA Novosti, stating “We have nothing to report at the moment,” before the Pentagon’s X post formalized the operation name.

Donald Trump looking tired and disheveled as he delivers his February 28, 2026 speech announcing the commencement of America’s military strikes against Iran as part of Operation Epic Fury

Confirmed targets across Iran include: Ministry of Intelligence, Ministry of Defense, Office of the Supreme Leader (7 missiles confirmed striking that district per reports), Iranian Atomic Energy Agency, Parchin military complex, and facilities across Tehran, Qom, Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Tabriz, Ilam, and Qeshm Island. Iran imposed near-total internet blackout — connectivity at 4% per NetBlocks. Supreme Leader Khamenei was confirmed relocated to a secure compound Iran’s Commander-in-Chief Amir Hatami was reportedly killed — unconfirmed, sourced only from Israeli media claims.

Bahrain Situational Assessment: Iranian Missile Impacts Confirmed

The “explosion in Bahrain” intelligence requirement yields a critical positive finding as there is now a confirmed kinetic event at or near NSA Bahrain across all open sources searched.

Confirmed Bahrain events as of 0230 MST:

Emergency sirens activated across Bahrain. The Interior Ministry sent alerts to all residents’ mobile phones stating: “The siren has been sounded due to a hazard.” This appears precautionary to be reactive to incoming fire.
US Embassy Bahrain shelter-in-place implemented for all personnel, with recommendations extended to all US citizens.
DoD authorized dependent departures from NSA Bahrain — not mandatory, on first-come-first-serve flight basis (Stars and Stripes, confirmed via alert seen by reporter).
Bahrain’s national alert system activated; Ministry of Interior urged citizens to “remain calm and head to the nearest safe place.”
Bahrain airspace closed (alongside Kuwait and UAE closures).
All US Navy vessels previously withdrawn from NSA Bahrain’s port — satellite imagery from Planet Labs/AP (February 25–26) showed piers “completely deserted.” Base reduced to fewer than 100 mission-critical personnel. This was a deliberate pre-positioning defensive measure.

The sirens and shelter-in-place orders — combined with fog-of-war social media amplification — are the most likely source of “explosion in Bahrain” reports. No weapon impact, no damage assessment, no casualty report, and no claim of responsibility exists for any Bahrain attack.

A photograph confirming that America’s Bahrain Naval Base has been hit by an Iranian missile.

Iran’s Retaliation: Directed at Israel, US Gulf Bases, and US Regional Allies

Iran’s IRGC confirmed launching its retaliatory strike within hours. The IRGC statement via Tasnim/Telegram read: “In an answer to the hostile and criminal enemy assault to the Islamic Republic of Iran, the first broad wave of missile and drone attacks of the Islamic Republic of Iran toward the occupied land has begun.” Key word: “toward the occupied land” — meaning Israel, not US installations. That said, this is likely a rhetorical flourish as Iran appears to be engaged in a widely-targeted bombing campaign attacking Israeli, American and US assets throughout the Gulf.

Air raid sirens sounded across Israel The Times of Israel CBS News at approximately 0815 local time. NPR The IDF confirmed detecting missiles launched from Iran Gulf News +2 and warned “the defense is not hermetic.” CNN Gulf News Explosions were reported in northern Israel as air defenses engaged incoming ballistic missiles. Al Jazeera One Russian Telegram aggregator (lower confidence) claims “Iran’s first ballistic missile hit a target in Tel Aviv” Pravda — this remains unverified by any primary source. Multiple additional barrages followed the initial wave. Al Jazeera CBS News

Israel declared a 48-hour nationwide state of emergency, Wikipedia closed airspace, CBS News suspended schools, workplaces, and public gatherings. Wikipedia +2 A senior Iranian official told Al Jazeera: “We say clearly to Israel to prepare for what is coming. Our response will be public, and there will be no red lines.” Pravda

The critical analytical point: Iran has not yet struck US bases in the Gulf. Historical precedent from June 2025 is instructive — after “Operation Midnight Hammer” struck Iranian nuclear sites, Iran waited approximately two days before launching Stars and Stripes +2 ~14 short/medium-range ballistic missiles at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar Global Guardian (intercepted, no US casualties, Wikipedia one radar dome damaged, advance warning given). Stars and Stripes +2 Iran may follow this pattern of delayed retaliation against US assets, or may escalate beyond precedent given the scope of the current operation.

Status of US bases across the region

No confirmed attacks on any US military installation in the Middle East as of 0300 MST. However, force protection posture is at maximum across the theater:

Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar — Reportedly targeted and the most likely target based on June 2025 precedent. US Embassy Qatar issued shelter-in-place. RAF Eurofighter Typhoons stationed there. Confirmed Incoming Fire.

Al Dhafra Air Base, UAE — IRGC conducted simulated missile attack drills against Al Dhafra on February 26. Confirmed incoming and UAE shootdowns. UAE closed airspace.

NSA Bahrain / Fifth Fleet HQ — Maximum alert, sirens activated, ships evacuated, skeleton crew. Confirmed incoming fire.

Ain al-Assad Air Base, Iraq — No longer a US base. US forces completed withdrawal in January 2026; Iraqi armed forces assumed full control. US forces relocated to Kurdistan Region (~1,500 remain). Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority halted all air traffic over Iraq.

Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia — Hosts Patriot and THAAD batteries. No confirmed incoming. Fox News/WSJ reported Gulf allies blocked US from using their bases and airspace for offensive strikes on Iran.

Bases in Kuwait — No confirmed attacks. Kuwait closed airspace.

One low-confidence Russian Telegram source reported “missile launches from Yemen — the Houthis joined the war” with at least one flight reported in the Tel Aviv area. Pravda This is unverified by any primary source and should be treated with extreme caution. CTP-ISW had previously assessed Houthis were “preparing to potentially resume attacks against US and Israeli targets” Critical Threats Critical Threats but they did not participate in the June 2025 war despite similar threats. PBS A Houthi official (Mohammed al-Bukhaiti) stated their response is “only a matter of time.” MarineLink

Regarding Iraqi militias: CTP-ISW reported (February 23) that 4 of 7 Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in the Resistance Coordination Committee decided to provide military support to Iran and “open fronts.” Critical Threats Kataib Hezbollah leader Ahmad al-Hamidawi warned: “War on the Republic will not be a picnic.” PBS However, no confirmed militia attacks have materialized yet.

What to watch in the next 2–72 hours

The intelligence picture is incomplete and evolving rapidly. Iran’s retaliatory calculus appears to be two-phase: immediate response against Israel, US and allied assets throughout the region (underway), followed by potential delayed strikes against additional US regional assets and potential attacks on soft targets in the United States and Europe (consistent with June 2025 pattern but potentially accelerated given the operation’s scale). The 48–72 hour window is the critical danger period for US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait although incoming fire has already been reported at several.

Key indicators to monitor:

IRGC statements differentiating between Israeli and US targets;
any Houthi missile or drone launches from Yemen (would indicate Axis of Resistance activation);
Iraqi militia activity against Kurdistan Region bases;
Iranian submarine or naval mine activity in the Strait of Hormuz;
FDD and whether Iran provides advance warning before striking US installations (as it did in June 2025 with Al Udeid). Wikipedia
The pre-positioning — evacuated ships, skeleton crews, dependent departures — suggests US military intelligence anticipated this retaliation timeline. JFeed

Source confidence assessment:

Operation Epic Fury designation is VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE (Pentagon primary source, Reuters/AP/ABC/CBS corroboration).
Bahrain attack is HIGH CONFIDENCE positive finding (photographic evidence).
Iran retaliation against Israel is VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE (IRGC confirmed, IDF confirmed).
Houthi involvement and Tel Aviv missile impact are LOW CONFIDENCE (single Russian aggregator sources only).
Iranian commander Hatami killed is MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (unconfirmed Israeli media claims).
Potential for delayed strikes on US Gulf bases is ASSESSED VERY LIKELY based on precedent and threat indicators, but timing remains uncertain.