Daily Risk Report: January 13, 2025

Executive Summary

January 13, 2025, brings a complex mix of geopolitical tension, security threats, and global energy volatility. The Biden administration's TikTok ban underscores the intensifying U.S.-China tech rivalry, while terrorism remains a persistent challenge in the wake of recent attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas. With oil prices surging and key political events on the horizon, stakeholders must prepare for an unpredictable year.

1. Geopolitical Developments

TikTok Ban and U.S.-China Relations

• Event: The U.S. has officially banned TikTok, citing security risks related to Chinese ownership.
• Implications: This move heightens U.S.-China tensions, particularly in the tech sector, and could spur retaliatory actions from Beijing.
• Predictions: Expect disruptions in U.S.-China trade and possible cyberattacks targeting U.S. government or corporate entities.

Oil Prices Surge Amid Sanctions

• Event: Brent crude has surged to $80 per barrel due to anticipated U.S. sanctions on Russian energy.
• Implications: These sanctions are expected to disrupt global oil supply chains, impacting industries reliant on stable energy prices.
• Predictions: Energy costs will rise, particularly in Europe and Asia, with increased risk of sabotage against oil infrastructure.

Political Tensions in Belarus

• Event: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to secure another term in the January 26 election amid ongoing repression.
• Implications: Protests are unlikely, but Western sanctions on Belarus may deepen the country's isolation and economic woes.

2. Recent Terrorist Incidents

New Orleans Attack (January 1, 2025)

• Details: A vehicle ramming and subsequent explosion killed 14 people, marking the first major U.S. terrorist attack of the year.
• Analysis: The attacker used advanced explosives, suggesting access to sophisticated training or resources.
• Implications: Lone-wolf attacks inspired by extremist ideologies remain a growing concern.

Las Vegas Incident (January 2, 2025)

• Details: A Tesla Cybertruck explosion near a high-profile venue injured several, with motives under investigation.
• Analysis: The attack may indicate a new trend in leveraging modern technology for high-visibility acts of terrorism.

3. Predictive Analysis

Potential Targets

1. Energy Infrastructure:
   • Locations: Oil refineries and pipelines, particularly in the Middle East and Europe.
   • Rationale: Rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions increase the likelihood of sabotage.
2. U.S.-China Tech Interests:
   • Locations: Major U.S. tech companies and government entities.
   • Rationale: Retaliatory cyberattacks in response to the TikTok ban are likely.
3. Urban Centers and Public Events:
   • Locations: Large public gatherings, such as sporting events or political rallies.
   • Rationale: Recent attacks demonstrate the vulnerability of crowded venues.

Likely Attack Types

• Cyberattacks:
  • Likely to target critical infrastructure or steal sensitive data in response to geopolitical moves.
• Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs):
  • Risk remains high in densely populated areas, with attackers aiming to cause mass casualties.
• Vehicle Ramming:
  • Low-resource, high-impact attacks remain a favored tactic among lone actors.

High-Risk Regions

• United States: Urban centers like New York, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C. face heightened risks.
• Middle East: Energy hubs in Saudi Arabia and Iraq remain vulnerable.
• Eastern Europe: Belarus and Ukraine are hotspots for political unrest and proxy conflicts.

4. Implications for Stakeholders

Businesses

• Energy Sector: Assess vulnerabilities in supply chains and prepare for potential price shocks.
• Tech Industry: Increase cybersecurity defenses in anticipation of retaliatory actions from Chinese entities.

Government Agencies

• Counter-Terrorism: Enhance monitoring of lone-wolf actors and bolster defenses for critical infrastructure.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Prepare for escalations in U.S.-China relations and coordinate with allies on sanctions enforcement.

General Public

• Awareness: Avoid large public gatherings without visible security measures.
• Vigilance: Report suspicious activity, particularly around energy facilities or high-profile events.

Conclusion

January 13, 2025, highlights the intersection of geopolitical tensions, terrorism, and energy security. Stakeholders must remain agile and proactive as global instability continues to shape the risk environment.