Al-Shabaab’s Attack on Somali President: U.S. Airstrikes, Regional Power Struggles & Somalia’s Security Crisis

Executive Summary

On March 18, 2025, Al-Shabaab targeted the convoy of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu, marking a bold attempt to undermine the government’s authority. While the President was unharmed, the attack claimed at least four lives, including journalist Mohamed Abukar Dabashe. The assault underscores Al-Shabaab’s continued operational resilience, even as U.S. military operations and Somali-led offensives attempt to degrade the group’s capabilities.

This attack occurs against the backdrop of a renewed U.S. military strategy in Somalia under Donald Trump’s second term, which has seen a dramatic escalation in airstrikes targeting both Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia. A March 15 U.S. airstrike northeast of Mogadishu was the latest in a series of operations designed to neutralize high-value targets. Despite these efforts, Al-Shabaab remains an adaptable insurgency, leveraging asymmetric warfare and urban terrorism to maintain relevance.

The geopolitical stakes in Somalia extend beyond counterterrorism. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has increased military involvement, particularly in Puntland, while Ethiopia remains a key, albeit distracted, player. Meanwhile, China and Russia are expanding influence through economic and paramilitary operations in the region, challenging U.S. dominance.

The attack highlights the paradox of U.S. intervention in Somalia—while airstrikes can disrupt Al-Shabaab’s leadership, they fail to address the structural conditions fueling insurgency. Moving forward, the key questions are: Will Al-Shabaab escalate further? Can Somalia achieve stability without U.S. military support? And how will external powers shape the conflict’s trajectory?

Incident Overview: The Attack & Its Immediate Implications

a. Timeline of the Attack

• March 18, 2025 (Morning): A bomb targeted Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy near the presidential palace in Mogadishu. The attack took place as he was reportedly en route to the airport for a frontline visit.
• Casualties: At least four people confirmed dead, including journalist Mohamed Abukar Dabashe. Several others were injured, though official numbers remain unverified.
• Method: Early reports suggest an IED (Improvised Explosive Device) or suicide bombing, tactics commonly used by Al-Shabaab in high-profile assassination attempts.
• Claim of Responsibility: Al-Shabaab quickly took credit, signaling a coordinated propaganda effort to project strength despite recent battlefield losses.

b. How Close Was the Attempt?

• It remains unclear how directly the President was at risk, though his immediate continuation to the frontlines suggests the attack did not reach his vehicle.
• Security Breach? Targeting a presidential convoy inside Mogadishu’s heavily guarded zones suggests Al-Shabaab retains access to informants within Somali security structures or has refined its urban attack capabilities.
• Historical Precedent: This marks the first direct assassination attempt on Mohamud since 2014, when an Al-Shabaab bombing targeted a hotel where he was speaking.

c. Immediate Repercussions

• Increased Security Measures: Expect harsher counterterrorism operations in Mogadishu, more checkpoints, and crackdowns in suspected Al-Shabaab cells.
• Political Ramifications: Mohamud’s rapid movement to the frontlines portrays defiance and leadership, but also underscores Somalia’s ongoing instability.
• Al-Shabaab’s Propaganda Win: Despite failing to eliminate the President, the group demonstrates its ability to strike at the heart of government power, reinforcing its resistance narrative and recruiting appeal.

U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy in Somalia Under Trump’s Second Term

a. Biden vs. Trump: A Strategic Shift

The U.S. counterterrorism approach in Somalia has varied significantly between administrations, reflecting broader shifts in foreign policy and military engagement.

• Biden’s Approach (2021–2024):
  • Reduced U.S. military presence in Somalia, prioritizing diplomatic engagement.
  • Relied on Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union-led forces (ATMIS/AUSSOM) to take the lead.
  • Scaled back airstrikes against Al-Shabaab, limiting U.S. engagement to intelligence-sharing and targeted operations.
  • Critics argue that this created a security vacuum that allowed Al-Shabaab to regain strength and increase attacks.
• Trump’s Second-Term Approach (2025–Present):
  • Dramatically escalated U.S. airstrikes against both Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia.
  • Prioritized kinetic counterterrorism operations, focusing on high-value target elimination.
  • Strengthened U.S. military partnerships with the UAE and Ethiopia, leveraging regional allies for operations.
  • March 15, 2025: U.S. airstrike northeast of Mogadishu targeted Al-Shabaab leaders, reinforcing an aggressive counterterrorism stance.

Trump’s return to a force-driven counterterrorism doctrine signals a reversal from Biden’s limited-engagement policy, with a renewed emphasis on preemptive military action to weaken terrorist networks before they can expand.

b. Why Somalia? The Strategic Rationale for U.S. Military Engagement

Despite not being a top-tier foreign policy focus, Somalia remains strategically significant to U.S. interests for several key reasons:

1. Neutralizing Al-Shabaab: Preventing terrorist spillover into Kenya and Ethiopia, where U.S. assets and allies are at risk.
2. Maritime Security in the Gulf of Aden: Somalia’s coastline is a crucial chokepoint for global trade and counter-piracy operations.
3. Great Power Competition:
   • China is expanding its economic influence in the Horn of Africa through infrastructure investments.
   • Russia is engaging in paramilitary operations across Africa, including possible covert support for Somali insurgents.
   • U.S. engagement in Somalia is partly a hedge against growing Chinese and Russian influence.

c. The Cost of U.S. Engagement: Tactical Success vs. Long-Term Stability

• Short-Term Gains: Increased airstrikes have disrupted Al-Shabaab’s leadership and operational capacity.
• Long-Term Risks:
  • Over-reliance on airstrikes means Somalia’s security forces remain dependent on U.S. support.
  • Potential civilian casualties could fuel anti-U.S. sentiment and bolster insurgent recruitment.
  • Without governance and economic stability, Al-Shabaab will continue regenerating despite military setbacks.

Al-Shabaab’s Resilience: Adapting to U.S. and Somali Military Pressure

a. From Territorial Control to Asymmetric Warfare

Over the past decade, Al-Shabaab has demonstrated an exceptional ability to adapt to shifting military strategies. Initially operating as a conventional insurgency, the group controlled large swaths of Somali territory, including major urban centers. However, as Somali government forces and U.S. airstrikes intensified, Al-Shabaab pivoted to asymmetric warfare, using:

• Suicide bombings and IED attacks to target government officials, military installations, and public areas.
• Urban terrorism in Mogadishu and cross-border attacks in Kenya and Ethiopia.
• Recruitment from disenfranchised Somali youth, leveraging grievances against government corruption and foreign military intervention.
• Shifting operations to rural areas where U.S. drones and Somali forces struggle to maintain control.

Despite suffering significant leadership losses from U.S. airstrikes, Al-Shabaab continues to regenerate, largely due to its ability to exploit local grievances and weak governance.

b. U.S. Airstrikes: Tactical Success, Strategic Stalemate?

While the Trump administration’s increased airstrikes have had short-term tactical victories, questions remain about their long-term effectiveness:

• Decapitating Leadership:
  • Strikes have eliminated several high-ranking Al-Shabaab operatives.
  • However, new leaders quickly emerge, often more radical and harder to track.
• Civilian Casualties & Radicalization:
  • Despite U.S. claims of “precision targeting,” civilian casualties occur, fueling anti-U.S. sentiment.
  • Al-Shabaab weaponizes these deaths for recruitment, portraying the Somali government as a U.S. puppet regime.
• Somali Military Dependence on the U.S.:
  • The Somali National Army (SNA) remains underfunded and poorly trained.
  • Without sustained U.S. and international support, Somalia’s security remains fragile.

c. Future Al-Shabaab Attacks: What to Expect

• Increased urban attacks in Mogadishu, aiming to disrupt government stability.
• Cross-border incursions into Kenya, targeting Nairobi or Mandera.
• Targeted assassinations of Somali government officials to weaken state capacity.

Al-Shabaab’s ability to persist despite sustained military pressure underscores the limitations of airstrikes alone in countering terrorism.

Regional Dynamics: U.S., UAE, Ethiopia, China & Russia

a. The UAE’s Expanding Role in Somalia

While the United States provides direct military support, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has quietly expanded its footprint in Somalia, particularly in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland and Somaliland.

• Military Investment: The UAE has been training and equipping Puntland’s security forces, creating a parallel military structure outside of Somali federal control.
• Port Infrastructure & Strategic Leverage: The UAE has invested in Berbera Port in Somaliland, giving it a foothold in maritime security along the Gulf of Aden.
• Covert Operations with the U.S.:
  • On February 17, 2025, a joint U.S.-UAE operation in Puntland targeted ISIS-Somalia cells, marking deeper military coordination.
  • The UAE’s growing involvement suggests an alternative regional security approach, possibly reducing Somali federal authority, as the UAE enhances its military posture while working to become a global leader in military AI.

b. Ethiopia: A Distracted but Critical Player

Ethiopia has historically played a major role in Somali security but is currently preoccupied with internal conflicts in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo regions.

• Reduced Military Presence in Somalia: Ethiopia has scaled back deployments, creating security vacuums that Al-Shabaab has exploited.
• Strategic Reengagement Under U.S. Pressure?
  • Ethiopia remains a key U.S. counterterrorism partner.
  • The Trump administration may push Addis Ababa to recommit forces in Somalia.

c. China & Russia: Competing for Influence in the Horn of Africa

• China’s Economic Playbook:
  • Unlike the U.S., China has avoided direct military intervention but has invested billions in African infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
  • Djibouti Military Base: China’s only overseas naval base is located in Djibouti, near U.S. military assets.
  • If Somalia turns against U.S. intervention, China could step in as an economic patron.
• Russia’s Shadow Influence:
  • Russia has backed paramilitary groups across Africa, including in Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali.
  • Potential Al-Shabaab Links? Reports suggest Russian mercenaries are expanding their footprint in East Africa, raising concerns about covert Kremlin-backed destabilization efforts.

d. What This Means for U.S. Operations

• The U.S. must navigate growing geopolitical rivalries in Somalia.
• The UAE’s independent military expansion could undermine U.S.-Somali federal coordination.
• China and Russia could capitalize on anti-U.S. sentiment, reshaping Somalia’s alliances.

Key Takeaways: What This Attack Reveals About Somalia’s Future

a. Al-Shabaab Remains a Persistent Threat

Despite intensified U.S. airstrikes and Somali-led military offensives, Al-Shabaab has proven its ability to adapt and maintain operational effectiveness.

• The March 18 attack on President Mohamud’s convoy underscores the group's continued presence in Mogadishu, despite Somali government claims of progress.
• Al-Shabaab has shifted its strategy from large-scale territorial control to asymmetric warfare, focusing on urban bombings, assassinations, and IED attacks.
• The group’s ability to infiltrate high-security areas suggests that its intelligence and recruitment networks remain intact.

b. Trump’s Counterterrorism Approach: Airstrikes vs. Long-Term Stability

The Trump administration’s aggressive counterterrorism approach has produced tactical victories but raises questions about its long-term effectiveness.

• March 15 U.S. airstrike: Successfully eliminated Al-Shabaab operatives but failed to prevent an attack inside Mogadishu three days later.
• Over-reliance on airstrikes risks fueling local resentment and anti-U.S. sentiment, potentially driving more recruits to Al-Shabaab.
• The Somali government remains dependent on U.S. military support, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.

c. Somalia’s Political & Security Landscape is Shaped by External Actors

• The UAE’s deepening involvement in Somalia, particularly in Puntland, could alter regional power balances, potentially undermining the Somali federal government.
• Ethiopia’s internal crises have led to a diminished military role in Somalia, creating security gaps that Al-Shabaab is exploiting.
• China and Russia’s growing interest in Africa could lead to increased competition over Somali influence, challenging U.S. strategic interests in the region.

d. The Road Ahead: Unanswered Questions

1. Will Al-Shabaab escalate further attacks in response to U.S. and Somali offensives?
2. Can the Somali National Army (SNA) become self-sufficient without U.S. air support?
3. Will Somalia’s government remain stable, or will increasing external influences (UAE, China, Russia) disrupt governance?

The March 18 attack is a reminder that military victories alone will not stabilize Somalia—a comprehensive strategy addressing governance, local grievances, and economic development is needed.

Final Assessment: The Cycle of Insurgency Continues

a. The Attack Reinforces Somalia’s Fragile Security Landscape

The March 18, 2025, attack on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy highlights the persistent instability in Somalia, despite ongoing military campaigns.

• U.S. airstrikes have disrupted Al-Shabaab’s leadership, yet the group continues to operate freely in key areas, including Mogadishu.
• Somali government forces remain heavily reliant on U.S. military support, particularly for intelligence and air power.
• Al-Shabaab’s rapid response capabilities—targeting a presidential convoy just days after a major U.S. airstrike—underscore its resilience and adaptability.

b. The Counterterrorism Dilemma: More Airstrikes, More Insurgents?

• U.S. airstrikes deliver tactical victories, but without governance and economic stability, Al-Shabaab will continue regenerating.
• Civilian casualties from drone strikes risk fueling radicalization, with Al-Shabaab exploiting grievances for recruitment.
• Somalia remains dependent on foreign intervention, raising concerns about the long-term effectiveness of Trump’s counterterrorism strategy.

c. The Role of External Powers: Somalia’s Geopolitical Crossroads

• UAE’s expanding influence in Puntland could lead to a fractured Somali state, complicating counterterrorism efforts.
• Ethiopia’s diminished role in Somali security creates power vacuums that Al-Shabaab is actively exploiting.
• China and Russia’s potential interventions could challenge U.S. strategic dominance in East Africa.

d. The Coming Months Will Reveal

1. Will Al-Shabaab escalate attacks in Mogadishu and Kenya in response to U.S. airstrikes?
2. Can the Somali government gain military self-sufficiency, or will it remain dependent on U.S. intervention?
3. How will UAE, Ethiopia, China, and Russia reshape Somalia’s security and political landscape?

The attack on President Mohamud’s convoy demonstrates that Somalia remains in a cycle of insurgency—one that U.S. airstrikes alone cannot break. Without stronger governance and economic stability, Somalia will remain a battlefield for competing global interests.