Would Donald Trump Strike Iran During the State of the Union – With Markets Opening the Next Morning?

Would a US President Strike Iran During the State of the Union on a Weekday?

By Kevin J.S. Duska Jr. | February 24, 2026

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TL;DR

The open-source indicators surrounding tonight’s State of the Union — a dedicated 42-aircraft SEAD package, Gang of Eight briefed today, two carrier strike groups within range, Wild Weasel F-16CJs carrying first-combat-use Angry Kitten EW pods, and a First Quarter moon setting over Tehran at midnight — form a pre-strike architecture that is either the most elaborate coercive pressure campaign in a generation, or the real thing. The Tuesday timing sounds insane. It may not be. Here’s why.

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The Question Nobody Is Asking Out Loud

As Donald Trump steps to the podium tonight for his 2026 State of the Union address, a question is circulating in national security and intelligence circles that the mainstream press is dancing around: is this the night?

Not a rhetorical question. An operational one.

The United States has assembled what analysts at multiple think tanks are calling the most significant military buildup in the Middle East since the Iraq War. Two carrier strike groups. Dozens of advanced fighter jets at forward bases. A 42-aircraft suppression of enemy air defenses package — including 24 F-16CJ Wild Weasels carrying the Angry Kitten electronic warfare pod with AI capabilities in what may be its first operational combat deployment — positioned specifically to blind and destroy Iranian radar networks.

All of it pointed at Iran. All of it assembled in the past six weeks.

And the State of the Union is tonight.

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Why Tuesday Sounds Crazy

Let’s acknowledge the obvious: launching a military strike on a Tuesday night, with US equity markets opening in roughly 14 hours, is not how these things are supposed to work.

Historical precedent is clear. Libya 1986: weekend. Gulf War 1991: Wednesday, but with weeks of congressional authorization and global market preparation. Iraq 2003: Thursday, after a months-long buildup with UN debates, Congressional vote, and full media preparation. Syrian strikes 2017, 2018: weekends. Operation Midnight Hammer, the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025: a single overnight operation.

The conventional wisdom is that presidents avoid military action during market hours — or immediately before them — because the shock to oil markets, currency markets, and equity futures creates cascading economic instability that undermines the political case for the action itself. A $15-20 spike in crude oil overnight, S&P futures down 3-4%, VIX spiking above 40: these are self-inflicted wounds.

So the Tuesday question is legitimate. Why would anyone do this?

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The Forcing Functions That Make Tonight Non-Crazy

Three independent variables converge tonight in a way that won’t repeat for at least thirty days.

The Ramadan Deadline. Ramadan begins tomorrow, Wednesday February 25th. US Arab allies — Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE — have lobbied explicitly and aggressively against any American military action during the Muslim holy month. The diplomatic cost of a Ramadan strike is a multi-week rupture with every Sunni-majority partner in the regional coalition. If the administration has decided to move, tonight is the last viable window before that 30-day political constraint locks in.

The Lunar Window. Tonight is First Quarter moon — 50% illuminated, sets over Tehran at approximately midnight local time (8:30 PM Eastern). By the time the SOTU begins, the moon is already low on the Iranian horizon. By 1 AM Tehran — roughly two hours into the speech — Iran’s target areas are in complete darkness. Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from USS Abraham Lincoln, operating approximately 435 miles off Iran’s coast, reach targets in under an hour at cruise speed. The arithmetic is clean: weapons-on-target in total darkness, zero lunar illumination for Iranian air defense visual systems, Wild Weasels already degrading radar coverage. Military planners call this a “launch window.” It is.

The Geneva Clock. US and Iranian negotiators met in Geneva today. No resolution. Witkoff and Kushner are scheduled for another meeting Thursday. If the administration’s read is that Iran is stalling — using talks as cover to continue hardening nuclear sites with concrete and soil, as satellite imagery confirms — then the diplomatic track is theater and Thursday’s meeting changes nothing. Acting tonight, before that meeting, sends the signal that the US will not be temporized.

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What The Open Source Actually Shows

This is not speculation built on anonymous sources. The public record is explicit.

The SEAD Architecture. On February 17-19, 24 F-16CJ Block 52 Wild Weasel aircraft from South Carolina’s 169th Fighter Wing (“Swamp Foxes”) transited Lajes Field in the Azores carrying AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles, HARM Targeting System pods, and — critically — Angry Kitten electronic warfare pods. Angry Kitten uses Digital Radio Frequency Memory technology to detect, capture, and manipulate radar signals in real time, jamming Iranian SAM fire-control systems with adaptive techniques radar operators have never encountered in combat. This is reportedly its first potential operational deployment. Combined with 18 EA-18G Growlers already operating off the carriers, the US has 42 dedicated SEAD aircraft in theater. That is not a deterrence force. That is an opening-night strike package.

The Gang of Eight. This afternoon — hours before the SOTU — Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed the congressional Gang of Eight: the eight senior lawmakers customarily informed when military action is imminent. The Trump administration notably did not brief the Gang of Eight before Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025. It did not brief them before the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro in January. It briefed them today. The escalation in procedural formality is itself a signal.

The Carrier Posture. USS Abraham Lincoln is operating in the Arabian Sea approximately 435 miles from the Iranian coast — well within Tomahawk range. USS Gerald R. Ford is transiting toward the region. Iranian nuclear sites are being buried deeper under concrete, a race against the clock visible in commercial satellite imagery.

The B-2 Constraint. The planned use of B-2 stealth bombers from Whiteman AFB, Missouri — as in Midnight Hammer — faces a complication: the UK has publicly blocked US use of Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford for Iran strikes. This is significant because sustained bunker-busting against deeply buried sites like Fordow requires B-2s with GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators. However, The War Zone noted that the UK made identical blocking statements four days before Midnight Hammer, then confirmed on the day of the strikes that they “had received no request” from the US. The blocking language may be diplomatic cover, not operational constraint.

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The Market Problem, Reframed

The market exposure argument against a Tuesday strike is real but not necessarily decisive — if the administration has characterized Phase 1 as a limited compellance strike, not a war.

The theory would run like this: Tomahawks and HARM missiles hit Iranian radar installations and select military facilities. Not nuclear sites — those require B-2s and MOPs. Not regime targets. IADS suppression and coercive signaling. Iran wakes up Wednesday with its air defense network degraded and a US message: accept a deal or Phase 2 is the nuclear sites. Markets open Wednesday to a “limited, targeted strike” framing, not “war with Iran.” Oil spikes, yes, but not the catastrophic multi-week disruption of a full campaign.

Whether Iranian retaliation respects that framing is a different and more dangerous question. Tehran has threatened to strike Diego Garcia, US bases in the Gulf, and Israeli territory if attacked. The assumption that Iran will absorb Phase 1 and negotiate is a significant bet.

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The Honest Bottom Line

The open source indicators are unambiguous: the United States has assembled a first-night strike architecture in the Middle East that is fully capable of executing a SEAD-led Tomahawk compellance package tonight within the context of the American kill chain. The Ramadan deadline, lunar window, Gang of Eight briefing, and SEAD deployment all converge on the next several hours.

Whether that capability becomes actuality depends on a decision made by one person, in a White House, who is currently at the Capitol giving a speech.

The question isn’t whether a president would do this. The question is whether this president, with this force posture, facing this deadline, with this theatrical instinct, will.

The answer to that question will probably be evident before markets open tomorrow.

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Prime Rogue is a private intelligence and strategic transparency publication. This analysis is based entirely on open-source reporting, public satellite imagery, flight tracking data, and congressional statements.

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