The Geopolitical Implications of Pope Leo XIV’s Election

1. Leo XIV’s Historic Election Amid Global Crossroads

Pope Leo XIV’s election marks a historic first – the first American pontiff – and comes at a moment of intense global polarization. The College of Cardinals broke tradition by choosing Cardinal Robert Prevost of Chicago, a naturalized Peruvian citizen, signaling a desire for continuity with Pope Francis’ global outlook and reforms. World leaders immediately recognized the geopolitical significance of this choice. U.S. President Donald Trump, newly returned to office, hailed the American pope as “a Great Honor for our Country,” expressing surprise yet eager anticipation to meet Leo XIV. At the same time, President Joe Biden and European heads of state voiced hopes that Leo’s pontificate would champion unity, human rights, and reconciliation in a fractured world. This juxtaposition of enthusiasm underscores the Vatican’s potential role as a moral counterweight in global affairs at a time when nationalist movements are resurgent.

Behind the celebratory messages lies a strategic calculation. Trump and his allies see an opportunity to court a pope who shares their nationality, even as they recall Pope Francis’ pointed critiques of populist policies (Francis once said those who build walls “are not Christian”). Vatican insiders note that Leo XIV’s election “will not deviate far from Pope Francis’ work” – a signal that despite Trump’s warm words, the new pope is expected to continue the Church’s advocacy for migrants, the poor, and the planet. Leaders in the Global South, from Brazil’s President Lula to Colombia’s President Petro, praised Leo XIV as a continuation of Francis’ legacy of social justice, peace, and environmental concerns. Even Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, often at odds with Francis, tweeted, “We have a Pope! There is hope!” – a cryptic endorsement suggesting the global right wing is watching closely to see if Leo XIV might be more sympathetic to their agenda or if he will remain a progressive balancing force against it.

Key Context: Leo XIV assumes the papacy in a world polarized between rising authoritarian nationalism and calls for greater solidarity. The Vatican now sits at the fulcrum: can an American-born pope bridge divides and act as a stabilizing, moral voice? The manner in which Leo XIV has been received – with relief from liberal democracies and cautious optimism from populist leaders – underscores the high stakes for the Holy See’s global role. The coming weeks will reveal whether the Vatican under Leo XIV positions itself as a bulwark against the global rightward shift, or seeks a nuanced middle path to engage all sides.

2. Profile of Leo XIV: Ideology, Allies, and Style of Governance

Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV, is widely regarded as a centrist bridge-builder within the Church. Ideologically, he is progressive on social issues but conservative on doctrinal matters, a balance that positions him in the middle of Catholic debates. For example, he has championed outreach to the marginalized and upheld Pope Francis’ inclusive tone, yet he opposes radical doctrinal changes like ordaining women as deacons. This mix of views means Leo XIV is seen as a moderate reformer: committed to continuing Francis’ aggiornamento (updating of the Church) without breaking the theological anchor. Indeed, the cardinals “wanted someone committed to Pope Francis’ reform agenda and…effective management” – and Prevost fit that bill as a trusted executor of Francis’ vision.

Allies and Background

Leo XIV’s background has equipped him with a global network and a reputation for diplomatic skill within Church circles. He is an Augustinian friar by training, bilingual in English and Spanish, and spent decades as a missionary and bishop in Peru, immersing himself in Latin American Catholic issues. This earned him respect among Global South clergy and “moderating influence” status amid Peru’s ideological battles between liberation theologians and traditionalists. His recent role as Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops under Francis had him vetting bishop candidates worldwide, allowing him to forge relationships with cardinals across continents. Those connections proved pivotal in the conclave: he was able to transcend regional blocs, appealing to both reform-minded cardinals and cautious institutionalists. In fact, church observers note that many electors saw Prevost as a surprise continuity candidate, given his close work with Francis and shared pastoral priorities. Support from Latin American, African, and Asian cardinals – who formed the most diverse conclave ever – combined with acceptance from European and American cardinals who valued his steady management style.

Governance Style

Descriptors like “calm,” “grounded,” “good-humoured” and “compassionate” come up frequently. Leo XIV is not a fiery ideologue; colleagues describe him as a consensus-builder who listens and seeks common ground. As one former classmate put it, his papal style will be “calm, steady, [and] very direct” in guidance. He’s known to “maintain good humour and joy” even under pressure. This temperament, honed by years of navigating factional strife in Peru, suggests he will try to lower the temperature of internal Church conflicts and govern through collegial consultation. He values giving “everyone a voice” in the Church’s deliberations, echoing the synodal approach championed by Francis. We can expect Leo XIV to continue Francis’ humble, pastoral tone: notably, in his very first appearance he delivered a unifying message about the Church as one that “builds bridges…open to receive everyone, in charity, dialogue and love.” His first papal blessing invoked Francis’ own final Easter words, reassuring the crowd that “God loves everyone; evil will not prevail…without fear…we go forward.” These early words – emphasizing inclusivity, courage and continuity – highlight his intent to govern as a pastor and reconciler rather than an autocrat.

Signals from His Chosen Name

The choice of the name Leo XIV is itself a telling signal of his priorities. It deliberately harkens back to Pope Leo XIII (1878–1903), who championed modern Catholic social teaching and the rights of workers during the Industrial Age. Vatican observers note that by invoking Leo, the new pope indicates that Catholic social thought will be central to his reign. Themes likely to feature prominently include economic justice, the common good, human dignity, and care for the environment. In an era of AI-driven economies and widening inequality, Leo XIV appears poised to update the Church’s social doctrine for the 21st century much as Leo XIII did for the 20th. His background in ministering to the poor in Peru and his academic grounding in canon law suggest he will combine on-the-ground empathy with an orderly approach to governance. In summary, Leo XIV’s profile is that of a centrist, collaborative pope with deep roots in the Global South and a mindset oriented toward bridging divides – an identity that will shape how he engages both the Church’s internal factions and world powers.

3. Vatican Diplomacy: Navigating Washington, Beijing, and Moscow

Leo XIV steps onto the world stage as a pope with an unusually direct connection to the United States power structure, while also inheriting delicate dialogues with China and Russia. How he manages these major relationships will define the Vatican’s geopolitical role in his early papacy.

The U.S.: An American Pope in the Time of Trump

Never before has a sitting U.S. president had a compatriot as pope, and this dynamic is already unfolding in complex ways. The Trump administration, emboldened by what it sees as a cultural ally, has extended warm overtures. In addition to President Trump’s praise, Vice President J.D. Vance – a recent convert to Catholicism – offered public prayers for Leo’s success. Official Washington signaled it views this papacy as an opportunity: Secretary of State Marco Rubio lauded Leo XIV’s election as “profound significance” and affirmed the U.S. looks forward to “deepening [its] enduring relationship” with the Vatican. This suggests the U.S. administration hopes for closer alignment with the Holy See on areas of mutual interest, perhaps counting on Leo XIV’s nationality to reduce past frictions. However, any assumption that an American pope will automatically side with U.S. policies is tempered by Church history and Leo’s own track record. Under Pope Francis, the Vatican often acted as a moral check on Trump-era policies – from immigration crackdowns to climate change denial – and Leo XIV has indicated he will uphold that legacy. Just last year, Pope Francis publicly rebuked Vance’s notion that Americans have greater obligations to neighbors than to distant refugees, reminding U.S. Catholics of their duty to migrants. Leo XIV, who has similarly ministered to immigrant communities, is expected to maintain the Church’s stance that Christian compassion knows no borders. The Biden administration (now in opposition) has also welcomed Leo XIV, with President Biden – himself a Catholic – praying for the new pope’s success. In sum, the Vatican under Leo XIV is positioning itself as a constructive but independent actor in U.S. domestic politics: willing to praise leaders on shared values (e.g. religious freedom, pro-life issues) but equally willing to critique policies at odds with Catholic social teaching (on refugees, poverty, climate). The fact that Nancy Pelosi and other American Catholic figures heralded Leo’s election as a “vision of unity” for a 1.4 billion-strong Church underscores the hope that he might help bridge the bitter partisan divides among U.S. Catholics. Still, navigating a potential 2025 Trump-vs.-Biden political clash will require Leo XIV to walk a fine line – offering a balancing moral voice without being seen as partisan. His centrist reputation may aid him here, but expectations from both American liberals and conservatives will be high and often contradictory.

China: Continuing a Fragile Détente

Under Francis, the Vatican took the controversial step of signing a 2018 provisional agreement with Beijing over the appointment of bishops. This delicate détente – essentially a power-sharing deal on episcopal appointments – was renewed in subsequent years but remained contentious. Leo XIV inherits this “fragile agreement”, which pragmatists credit for keeping the Catholic Church alive in China, while critics call it a capitulation to Communist authoritarianism. As a Francis-aligned pope, Leo XIV is likely to maintain the Vatican’s engagement with China, rather than abruptly break it. Early signals point to continuity: Beijing’s state-controlled Catholic bodies have cautiously welcomed the new pope with the expectation that the Vatican will stay “politically neutral” in Chinese affairs. However, tensions are bound to test this relationship soon. In recent months, Chinese authorities have unilaterally ordained bishops and cracked down on underground Catholic communities, straining the pact. Leo XIV will face a critical decision when the agreement comes up for renewal again: does he quietly extend it in hopes of gradual progress, or does he demand concessions (such as greater religious freedom for Catholics in China) at the risk of Beijing’s ire? His background suggests a patient diplomatic approach – he understands the value of keeping communication channels open even in adverse conditions, much like his predecessor. Nonetheless, watch for whether Leo XIV voices concern on human rights in China (e.g. persecution of Uyghur Muslims or repression in Hong Kong) which Francis largely avoided. Any public support for universal human rights by the pope could complicate Vatican-China ties. Also pivotal will be Leo’s stance on Taiwan: Vatican is one of the few states recognizing Taipei over Beijing. Francis delicately sidestepped the issue; Leo XIV’s American roots might incline him to uphold Taiwan ties, a move Beijing would view as hostile. For now, the Vatican is expected to proceed cautiously: maintaining the China deal to preserve the Church’s foothold, while quietly negotiating to protect Chinese Catholics. How Leo XIV handles the next Chinese appointment or an incident of repression will telegraph whether he leans more toward realpolitik or prophetic witness in this most sensitive arena.

Russia: The Ukraine War and Eastern Orthodoxy

The ongoing war in Ukraine presents an immediate foreign-policy crucible for Pope Leo XIV. Pope Francis trod a careful line on Russia’s invasion – calling for peace but eschewing direct condemnation of Vladimir Putin. This stance, intended to keep the door open for mediation, drew criticism: Ukrainians felt the Vatican was too soft on Moscow, while Western governments longed for a clearer moral denunciation of aggression. Leo XIV’s instincts as an American and as a student of social justice may push him toward a firmer position. Notably, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy swiftly congratulated the new pope and pointedly encouraged “continued support from the Vatican” against Russia’s aggression. Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine “deeply values the Holy See’s consistent position…condemning…Russia’s military aggression” and pleaded for ongoing moral leadership to help restore peace. This indicates Kiev’s hope that Leo XIV will amplify the Vatican’s condemnation of the war and perhaps use his influence to rally international support for Ukraine. On the other side, the Kremlin and the Russian Orthodox Church will be warily assessing the new pope. An American on the throne of Peter may raise suspicions in Moscow that the Vatican will tilt more overtly pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO. If Leo XIV indeed adopts a more outspoken stance – for instance, explicitly denouncing the invasion or visiting Ukraine as a show of solidarity – we can expect Russia to harden its posture toward the Vatican. The Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, a staunch Putin ally, might break the fragile dialogue with Rome if he perceives the new pope as an opponent rather than a neutral peacemaker. There is also the scenario that Leo XIV continues Francis’ approach of equidistant peacemaking: offering the Vatican’s services to mediate or facilitate humanitarian corridors, while avoiding overt blame. Given his moderate nature, Leo XIV may initially try to balance these options – perhaps by quietly supporting Ukraine’s cause (as evidenced by Vatican humanitarian aid and back-channel diplomacy) without completely alienating Moscow. Yet, as atrocities mount and pressure from Western Catholics grows, the moral imperative to speak truth to power could drive him to a clearer stance. The next 100 days may bring key signals: a potential meeting or phone call with Zelenskyy, a special papal envoy to Moscow or Kiev, or a pointed papal statement on the war’s anniversary. Each of these will reveal whether the Vatican under Leo XIV remains a neutral bridge or becomes a firmer voice for the rules-based international order

Diplomatic Balancing Act: In managing relations with Washington, Beijing, and Moscow, Leo XIV must perform a high-wire act. A misstep could either diminish the Holy See’s unique soft power or compromise its moral authority. He appears set on a path of engagement and dialogue – “building bridges” in his own words – but without sacrificing the Church’s core principles. The world’s great powers will probe and test this new pope early: how he responds will define whether the Vatican emerges as a balancing force in global geopolitics or is pulled into the orbit of one bloc or another.

4. Shifting Priorities: Global South Emphasis, Migration, and Church Unity

Pope Leo XIV’s ascent is also poised to reshape the Catholic Church’s policy priorities, continuing some of Pope Francis’ transformative emphases while attempting to heal internal divisions, especially between the Global South and the West.

Empowering the Global South

Under Francis, the demographic shift of Catholicism toward the Global South was reflected in Vatican policy – Francis elevated numerous Latin American, African, and Asian leaders and highlighted issues like poverty and indigenous rights. Leo XIV is expected to double down on this southward focus. Though an American by birth, he “lived 40 years in Latin America” and is deeply formed by the experience of the Peruvian Church. His election itself was enabled by the largest and most diverse conclave ever, suggesting that the center of gravity in Catholicism has permanently expanded beyond Europe. We anticipate that Leo XIV will continue appointing cardinals and bishops from the peripheries, further decentralizing the Eurocentric power structure of the Church. This means voices from the Philippines, Congo, India, Brazil and beyond will find an even more receptive ear in Rome. Practically, policies on social justice – land rights, economic inequality, health crises – that affect the Global South majority of Catholics will be front and center. As one Latin American commentator noted, Leo XIV’s very heritage “is more than just American” – with Latin ancestry and decades among Peruvian communities – which gives hope he will “lift up our Latino migrant brothers and sisters” and fight the “greed” fueling climate change. Such expectations suggest that issues of economic justice, development, and climate will remain Vatican priorities, aligning with the concerns of the Global South. However, this could put the new pope on a collision course with Western interests when it comes to topics like climate policy or trade justice. For instance, fossil-fuel reliant regimes and corporations may chafe if Leo XIV echoes Francis’ forceful calls to combat climate change and protect the Amazon. Nonetheless, given his name’s tribute to Leo XIII’s social teaching, we foresee Leo XIV championing a “Church for the poor” that speaks boldly on global inequality – a stance that will strengthen the Church’s moral leadership in the Global South and among international organizations.

A Consistent Pro-Migrant Stance

One of the flashpoints between the Vatican and the global right in recent years has been migration. Pope Francis made the defense of migrants and refugees a hallmark of his papacy, frequently admonishing wealthy nations to welcome those fleeing war and poverty. All indications are that Pope Leo XIV will uphold this compassionate stance on migration, effectively positioning the Vatican as a counter-voice to anti-immigrant politics. His own pastoral experience bears this out – he has literally ministered “in the streets,” embracing the marginalized and poor. We have already seen friction in the U.S. context: Francis publicly corrected VP Vance’s assertion about prioritizing locals over distant strangers, reaffirming that Christians must care for all in need. Leo XIV, rather than back away, is likely to reinforce this teaching. Latin American leaders have explicitly appealed for him to become “a great leader for migrants around the world.” We may see early on a powerful symbolic gesture – much as Francis visited Lampedusa, Italy, to pray for drowning refugees – perhaps Leo XIV will visit a migration flashpoint (for example, the US-Mexico border or a refugee camp) to dramatize the Gospel call to “welcome the stranger.” Such an act would send a clear message that the Catholic Church remains on the side of humanitarian openness, even as governments in the U.S. and Europe harden their borders. This pro-migrant advocacy will likely put the Vatican at odds with populist leaders in Italy, Hungary, the U.S., and elsewhere who have risen to power on anti-immigrant rhetoric. We can anticipate continued Vatican criticism of policies like border walls, family separations, or refugee pushbacks, couched in Leo XIV’s perhaps gentler, but still firm, tone. Internally, this stance also comforts the many Catholic charities and clergy working with refugees that the pope has their back. However, it could fuel dissent among some conservative Catholics, especially in the U.S. and Europe, who align with nationalist views on immigration. Leo XIV will need to manage this tension by rooting his message firmly in Christian teaching (as Francis did) to undercut any argument that it’s mere politics. Given his pastoral bent, expect him to highlight individual human stories of migrants to shift the conversation from abstract “masses” to personal encounters, hopefully softening hearts.

Bridging Western Catholic Divisions

Perhaps Leo XIV’s greatest internal challenge is mending the rift within the Catholic Church in the West. He inherits a flock divided into camps – traditionalists who felt alienated by Francis’ reforms, and progressives who worry the Church hasn’t changed fast enough. These divisions often mirror political lines: conservative Catholics in the U.S. and Europe have gravitated toward right-wing populist movements, while progressive Catholics align with social justice causes. This “cultural war” within Catholicism has strained communion. As a moderate, Leo XIV will likely aim to balance these factions to prevent open schism. Early in his papacy, a key signal will be how he handles issues like the Traditional Latin Mass and the reforms from the recent Synod on Synodality. Pope Francis had restricted the old Latin Mass to curb what he saw as divisive liturgical parallelism, angering traditionalists. Will Leo XIV uphold these restrictions – signaling continuity and prioritizing unity on Francis’ terms – or ease them as a conciliatory gesture to traditional Catholics? Many observers expect him to maintain Francis’ line for now, given that the cardinal electors chose continuity over rollback. Indeed, if he were to immediately placate traditionalists, it could embolden the far-right fringe and demoralize the reformist majority. Instead, Leo XIV is likely to reassure conservatives that core doctrine remains intact (no doctrinal rupture on issues like marriage, Eucharist, etc., in line with his own conservative leanings) while also reassuring progressives that the pastoral reforms will continue. This delicate both-sides messaging showed up in his first speech about a Church “open to receive everyone” yet rooted in charity and truth. He has a track record from Peru of getting ideologically disparate clergy to sit at the same table. We may see him convene dialogues between opposing factions – for instance, encouraging bishops who clashed over issues (like those in Germany’s progressive “synodal path” vs. more conservative African bishops) to engage each other. He might also moderate the Church’s public tone on hot-button matters: expect an emphasis on finding common ground (such as opposing secular consumerism or assisting the poor) rather than amplifying culture-war fights. Still, fault lines remain. On LGBTQ+ pastoral care, women’s roles, and clerical celibacy, progressives hope for movement, whereas traditionalists fear any change. Leo XIV likely will not please the extremes of either side – a centrist pope often risks “pleasing no one” completely. His success or failure in maintaining unity will depend on whether the broad middle of the Church feels heard and whether extremists refrain from open rebellion. A worst-case scenario – open schism – seems unlikely in the short term under such a reconciling figure, but he will be mindful that without careful navigation, he “may become the first modern pope to preside over a formal split” if either wing loses faith in Rome. To avoid this, watch for Leo XIV to emphasize shared mission over ideological labels, possibly launching a jubilee or major initiative that channels Catholic energies toward helping others (thus shifting focus outward and defusing internecine strife).

In summary, Pope Leo XIV’s policy orientation appears set to amplify the Church’s voice for the voiceless globally while soothing internal disputes. By strengthening the Church’s commitment to the Global South and migrants, he positions Catholicism firmly on the side of human dignity in the international arena. By striving to balance progressive and traditional concerns within the Church, he hopes to restore a measure of unity to a community that in recent years has often seemed at war with itself. It is a monumental task – essentially shepherding a 1.4-billion member Church to speak with moral clarity to the world without fracturing from within. The next months will reveal how effectively Leo XIV can actualize this vision of a “church for todos, todos, todos (everyone, everyone, everyone)” that his predecessor championed.

5. Power Shifts in the Vatican: Curia, Factions, and Financial Reforms

Beyond external affairs and broad policy, Leo XIV’s election triggers an internal realignment of power within the Vatican. The Roman Curia – the papal bureaucracy – and various factions (career diplomats, traditionalists, progressives, religious orders) are already maneuvering to adapt to the new regime. The first 48 hours of Leo XIV’s pontificate have provided initial clues to how he will manage the Church’s central government and what that means for ongoing reforms.

The Roman Curia: Continuity with a New Boss

Traditionally, with a pope’s death or resignation, all Vatican department heads submit their resignation, allowing the new pope to confirm or replace them. Leo XIV, being a consummate insider who has worked alongside these officials, is expected to favor stability initially. True to form, he has already indicated that Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the influential Secretary of State, will be asked to stay on – at least through the transition. Parolin, a seasoned diplomat and power-broker, was the face of the Vatican during Francis’ final days and managed the interregnum with skill. By retaining Parolin, Leo XIV signals that he values continuity in Vatican diplomacy and wants to reassure the world that “business as usual” continues in the Holy See’s dealings. Likewise, most heads of key dicasteries (departments) will likely be temporarily confirmed. This means figures like Cardinal Fernando Vérgez (Governor of Vatican City) and Cardinal Luis Tagle (Propaganda Fide) can expect to keep their roles for now, ensuring no abrupt disruption in governance. However, behind the scenes, a recalibration is underway. As a non-European pope, Leo XIV will eventually seek to imprint his own priorities on the Curia by making new appointments. Insiders suggest that in the coming weeks he will evaluate each department’s leadership through the lens of loyalty to Francis’ reform agenda. Those seen as obstructive or overly aligned with the old guard may be replaced. For example, watch the Dicastery for Divine Worship (which oversaw the Latin Mass restrictions) and the Dicastery for Doctrine – areas where policy might shift – for any leadership changes that indicate a different emphasis. Another key position is the Camerlengo (who handles Vatican administration between popes); Cardinal Kevin Farrell currently serves in that role, and Leo XIV may choose to keep this trusted Francis appointee or eventually tap someone from his inner circle. In short, the Curia’s balance of power is tilting slightly: the pro-reform, pastoral wing retains the upper hand, but Leo XIV will seek to co-opt the bureaucratic moderates rather than alienate them. By all accounts, he is not coming in with a “wrecking ball” to purge Vatican offices, but we can expect a gradual injection of his allies into key posts over the next year to solidify his control.

Factional Winners and Losers

Every conclave produces winners and losers within the Church’s internal factions. The election of Leo XIV is broadly seen as a victory for the moderate-progressive coalition forged by Pope Francis. Traditionalist hardliners, who had hoped the pendulum might swing back after Francis, are disappointed – their preferred candidates (such as a staunch conservative or a curial traditionalist) did not prevail. One indicator: Cardinal Raymond Burke, a leading traditionalist critic of Francis, was notably absent from any prominent role in the post-conclave proceedings, suggesting his influence remains marginal. The big winners are those who aligned with Francis’ vision and now see it extended under a like-minded successor. This includes Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg and Cardinal Blase Cupich of Chicago, prominent progressives who championed pastoral reforms under Francis. They can breathe easier that “Francis’ push for decentralization and an inclusive Church is not dead.” Likewise, Global South bishops – especially in Latin America and Africa – who were empowered by Francis’ era will retain influence. There is some evidence that European church bureaucrats, who might have expected to regain dominance after Francis, will have to continue sharing power. For instance, if Leo XIV keeps Cardinal Miguel Ángel Ayuso (a Spaniard who heads Interreligious Dialogue) and other non-Europeans in high posts, it affirms the ongoing shift away from Euro-centrism. On the other hand, it’s not a total shut-out for conservatives: Leo XIV is a centrist and knows he must govern the whole Church. He may offer olive branches to traditionalists in the form of private reassurances or by appointing a few more doctrinally conservative, albeit loyal, bishops to positions (to show he hears their concerns about orthodoxy). However, the traditionalist faction, especially those who openly resisted Francis (some even flirted with schism during the last pontificate), are likely to remain on the periphery of decision-making. They now face a choice: cooperate with the new pope’s efforts at unity or risk isolation. Progressives and moderates, meanwhile, must not become complacent – they succeeded in electing Leo XIV, but now they have to deliver on the promise of unity and renewal he represents. The internal truce Leo XIV hopes to broker will depend on both factions toning down rhetoric. A sign of this realignment will be how outspoken prelates behave: will we see more conciliatory language from previously fiery voices (e.g., Archbishop Charles Chaput or Cardinal Gerhard Müller)? Or will some double down in opposition? Early signals show a pause in open hostilities as everyone waits to see how Leo XIV will rule – his inclusive personal style could disarm critics over time, but he must avoid giving either side cause to rebel.

Financial Transparency and Reform: Full Steam Ahead

One area where insiders expect no reversal is the drive for Vatican financial reform and transparency. Pope Francis made significant strides in cracking down on corruption – from imposing stricter oversight on the Vatican Bank (IOR) to putting a cardinal (Angelo Becciu) on trial for embezzlement. These efforts met resistance from the old guard who preferred the opaque status quo. Had a more conservative or compromised pope been elected, we might have seen an immediate rollback of these measures. Instead, Leo XIV, known for effective management and integrity, is expected to double down on cleaning up Vatican finances. The fact that the cardinals chose someone “with a demonstrated record for effective management” suggests they want the reform trajectory to continue. In his role as Bishop of Chiclayo and as Augustinian Prior, Prevost was praised for transparency and frugality – traits he is likely to apply on a larger scale in Vatican City. In practical terms, this means the ongoing corruption trial of ex-cardinal Becciu and others will proceed without interference; verdicts and sentences could even come in the next few months, signaling that no one is above accountability. We can expect Leo XIV to empower the Secretariat for the Economy (which Francis had established and strengthened) to conduct audits and publish financial statements. He may also advance stalled reforms like joining more international anti-money-laundering agreements or updating procurement policies to prevent kickbacks. Importantly, continuing these reforms will keep secular authorities (like Italian and European financial regulators) confident in the Vatican’s financial credibility. There is always a risk that entrenched interests within the Curia will test the new pope’s resolve – for instance, by quietly undermining new controls or lobbying him to ease up. But given his mandate, Leo XIV is unlikely to bow to pressure to restore the old opaque ways. In fact, he might widen the scope of reform: possibly ordering an inventory of all Vatican assets, or increasing lay expert involvement in financial management for greater professionalism. The papal message is clear: the Church’s witness in the world requires clean house inside. Any retreat on transparency would damage the pope’s standing and the Church’s moral authority, a price Leo XIV seems unwilling to pay. One small but telling move in the first 48 hours was his decision to retain Jesuit Father Juan Guerrero as head of the economy office (or to appoint a successor with a similar reformist bent if Guerrero stepped down due to health). This continuity means all financial reforms enacted since 2014 remain on track. For the Vatican’s often-hidden “money aristocracy,” this is a warning that the new boss will keep shining light in dark corners. For the average Catholic, it’s an encouraging sign that the Church leadership will practice what it preaches about honesty and justice.

In the Vatican’s halls of power, Pope Leo XIV’s early reign can be summarized as consolidation and cautious progress. He is solidifying the reforms and staffing choices of his predecessor while gradually making them his own. By choosing continuity with Parolin and financial transparency, he preserves stability and credibility. By representing a moderate-progressive victory in the conclave, he has the mandate to push forward on reforms (if tactfully) without fear of immediate insurrection from the Curia. Over time, as he appoints new cardinals and officials aligned with his vision, Leo XIV will cement a ruling coalition within the Church that favors openness, dialogue, and integrity. The coming internal test will be whether he can truly get buy-in from all factions for a unified path forward – or whether subterranean opposition will force him into more dramatic showdowns. For now, the Vatican’s disparate power centers are adjusting to a new equilibrium under Leo XIV, one that promises both continuity and gentle but firm change.

6. Outlook: The First 100 Days and Geopolitical Implications

The first 100 days of Pope Leo XIV’s pontificate will be closely watched around the globe as an indicator of the Catholic Church’s trajectory under its new leadership. This period will likely set the tone for how Leo XIV intends to engage with world events and pressing issues. Several geopolitical forecasts and potential initiatives can be outlined based on current signals:

• A Global Peacemaker Role: Expect Leo XIV to quickly stake out a role as a mediator and advocate for peace in international conflicts. In the next few weeks, he is likely to make high-profile appeals or gestures for peace in hotspots such as Ukraine and the Holy Land. Vatican diplomats may quietly propose a humanitarian ceasefire or prisoner exchange in Ukraine – leveraging the pope’s fresh moral authority. Given his first words as pope were “Peace be with you,” Leo XIV could call a peace summit or day of prayer for peace, inviting leaders from both sides of conflicts. Such an initiative would signal that the Vatican intends to be an active balancing force amid great-power tensions, offering its neutral ground for dialogue where others cannot.
• Engagement with World Leaders: In his first 100 days, Pope Leo XIV is expected to meet or speak with numerous heads of state, positioning the Vatican at the crossroads of global diplomacy. A meeting with President Trump could occur relatively soon – potentially around late spring or early summer – if the White House pushes for an audience. This encounter, whenever it happens, will be symbolically charged: Leo XIV will aim to build rapport with Trump without appearing to endorse any divisive policies. Observers will scrutinize whether the Pope brings up issues like climate change or refugees in private discussion, as Francis famously did, or keeps to generalities. Likewise, outreach to China’s leadership may be on the agenda. We may see a special envoy dispatched to Beijing (possibly Cardinal Parolin or another trusted cardinal) to convey the new pope’s commitment to the China accord and to test the waters for an eventual papal trip to China – a long-sought but elusive goal. Additionally, relations with Russia might see a careful reset: Leo XIV could send a personal letter to Putin urging peace and offering prayers, balancing Zelenskyy’s public appeals with a behind-the-scenes nudge to Moscow. Any papal phone calls or correspondence with the Kremlin would be significant “first 100 days” developments, indicating whether he leans more toward engagement or prophetic denunciation regarding Russia’s actions.
• Focus on the Americas – North and South: Being the first American pope, Leo XIV is likely to turn his attention early to the Western Hemisphere. We anticipate that he will deliver special messages to the Americas, perhaps timed with events like the U.S. Independence Day or important Latin American feast days, emphasizing unity and shared values. An apostolic journey in the first year is highly probable; a trip to Latin America (for example, to Peru, where he served, or to Brazil for a pan-Amazonian meeting) would underscore continuity with Francis’ Latin American focus. Simultaneously, the U.S. Catholic Church will be on his radar. He might convene the U.S. bishops for a private meeting or send a letter addressing the polarization within the American Church – effectively asking them to dial down political infighting and serve the common good. His familiarity with U.S. culture could make him a unique bridge figure: for instance, he might visit a border city like El Paso within the first 100 days to highlight migrant issues in a context that directly engages U.S. policy. Such a visit, if it happens, would have enormous geopolitical resonance, subtly countering anti-immigrant narratives with the weight of the papacy.
• Advancing Francis’s Initiatives: Internally and globally, Leo XIV will press forward with the momentum from Francis’ projects. The Synod on Synodality, which Francis launched to make the Church more consultative, will see renewed papal support. Leo XIV is expected to confirm the implementation of proposals from that synod’s final phase (which took place shortly before Francis’ death). This includes potentially new structures for laypeople’s input in governance and perhaps pilot programs for increased roles of women (short of ordination). Announcing these within 100 days would show he’s serious about “reading the signs of the times” and adapting Church structures. On the global stage, climate action could be an area of early emphasis – possibly an update or sequel to Francis’ environmental encyclical Laudato Si’. Given the urgency of climate talks, Leo XIV might issue a major statement or convene religious leaders to commit to climate justice, aligning with international efforts ahead of the next UN climate conference. Such moves would demonstrate that the new pope is not retreating from the world’s challenges but embracing them.
• Jubilee Year and Global Outreach: The year 2025 is a scheduled Jubilee Year in the Catholic tradition – a year of pilgrimage, forgiveness, and charity. Francis had begun plans for a grand Jubilee themed around hope. Leo XIV will inherit those plans and likely use the Jubilee as a platform to articulate his vision for the Church’s role in the world. In the first 100 days, he will finalize and announce Jubilee events. We foresee him framing the Jubilee in geopolitical terms – for instance, calling for a “jubilee for the Earth” with debt relief for poor nations or a moratorium on conflicts. This would marry spiritual renewal with concrete global action. The new pope may also invite other Christian denominations and world religions to participate in certain Jubilee observances, reinforcing his commitment to dialogue and the “encounter culture” Francis fostered. By doing so early, he sets a collaborative tone and positions the Vatican as a convening power for addressing global issues through a moral and spiritual lens.
• Managing Internal Church Turbulence: Within 100 days, Leo XIV will also have to address any brewing internal crises so they don’t explode on the world stage. One likely area is the fallout from the German Church’s reform path (which has debated blessings for same-sex couples and other changes). The pope might send a delegate or letter to German Catholics urging unity with Rome, signaling how he will handle dissent – firmly but pastorally. Similarly, if any ultra-traditionalist groups react to his election with moves toward schism (for example, talk of rejecting him or forming a breakaway community), Leo XIV will have to respond swiftly. His approach will likely mix dialogue and clarity: he may invite representatives of disaffected groups for talks, while also making clear that the Church won’t tolerate open defiance of essential unity. How he navigates these early tests will affect the Church’s cohesion and thus its ability to speak credibly on the world stage.
• Vatican Financial and Governance Milestones: On the governance front, by the end of 100 days we anticipate Pope Leo XIV will issue an administrative decree or motu proprio reinforcing financial transparency – perhaps mandating even tighter controls on contracts or publishing the Vatican budget in greater detail. This would send an immediate signal to the international community (and Italy’s financial sector) that the new pope is carrying forward the anti-corruption banner. He might also announce the conclusion or outcome of high-profile financial trials, demonstrating justice being served. Additionally, he could establish a commission to study some challenging issue (for instance, the question of women deacons or updating bioethics teachings in the face of AI and biotech advances), indicating he’s engaging forward-looking questions. While these are internal moves, they have external implications: a more transparent, intellectually engaged Vatican is a more credible partner in global discussions about ethics and development.

Overall, the geopolitical forecast for Leo XIV’s early papacy is one of proactive engagement coupled with careful consolidation. Far from taking a wait-and-see approach, he is likely to seize the initiative on issues where moral leadership is needed, positioning the Vatican as a reconciler in a divided world. At the same time, he will shore up the Church’s internal house, knowing that his external credibility depends on unity and integrity within. If executed well, these first 100 days will project a Vatican that is both principled and pragmatic – willing to confront nationalism, authoritarianism, and injustice, but also savvy in diplomacy and coalition-building. Such a course would indeed cast the Vatican under Leo XIV as a balancing force in the tumultuous 2020s, much as many hoped his election would achieve.

7. Signals to Watch

As Pope Leo XIV’s papacy unfolds, several key signals in the coming weeks and months will indicate how effectively he is steering the Vatican’s course and asserting influence on the world stage:

• Early Personnel Appointments: Who Leo XIV confirms or replaces in top Vatican roles will speak volumes. Watch for an announcement on the Secretary of State – keeping Cardinal Parolin would mean continuity in diplomacy, while appointing a new face could signal a shift in tone or priorities. Likewise, any changes at the Doctrine or Worship offices may reveal how he’ll handle liturgical and ideological disputes.
• First Encyclical or Major Policy Address: Popes often issue a programmatic writing early on. If Leo XIV releases an encyclical focusing on issues like social justice, economic equity or environmental stewardship (in line with Leo XIII’s legacy), it will confirm his intent to challenge the global status quo on those fronts. Alternatively, a document emphasizing church unity and mercy would target internal healing.
• Interactions with the Trump Administration: Keep an eye on the tone and substance of Leo XIV’s first meeting or exchange with President Trump. Warm optics coupled with pointed private discussion (leaked or hinted) on areas of disagreement would show a nuanced balancing act. Any papal comment on U.S. domestic issues (immigration, racial justice, etc.) in upcoming speeches, or lack thereof, will indicate whether he’ll be a vocal counterpoint to Trump-aligned policies.
• China-Vatican Developments: Monitor the renewal talks of the Vatican-China bishop appointment deal. If within the next year the agreement is quietly renewed, it signals Leo XIV’s commitment to Francis’ engagement line. Conversely, any public friction – such as the Vatican openly criticizing a Chinese violation of the deal or highlighting persecution – would mark a tougher stance. Also, an unprecedented gesture like a meeting between Pope Leo XIV and Chinese President Xi (even virtually) would be a diplomatic breakthrough to watch for.
• Ukraine-Russia Mediation Efforts: Look for Vatican initiatives related to the Ukraine war. This could include a high-profile envoy trip to Kyiv or Moscow, a papal visit to a refugee center, or explicit papal language condemning aggression. If within 100 days Leo XIV manages to facilitate a humanitarian corridor or exchange, it will boost the Holy See’s peacemaker credentials. On the other hand, silence or maintaining Francis’ cautious neutrality would indicate a more restrained diplomatic approach.
• Outreach to Other Power Centers: Signals from EU leaders and authoritarian regimes in response to Leo’s actions are telling. Positive cooperation from the Biden administration and EU on climate or migration initiatives would show alignment. If figures like Hungary’s Orbán or Russia’s Putin start criticizing the Pope’s statements, it means he’s seen as opposing their agenda – confirming the Vatican as a balancing moral force. Also note any gesture towards authoritarian-aligned Catholic hierarchies (for instance, how he handles relations with the Church in nations like China, Nicaragua, or Hungary). A conciliatory approach would involve diplomacy; a confrontational one might involve public criticism of rights abuses.
• Global South Priorities: Pay attention to Leo XIV’s travel schedule and first visits. A trip early on to a Global South country (such as an African or Latin American nation) or marginalized region will underscore his focus on the peripheries. Additionally, any significant policy shifts favoring developing nations – like endorsing debt relief or increased aid – would fulfill expectations from leaders like Lula and Petro for continuity of Francis’ stance.
• Migrants and Refugees: Concrete actions on the migration crisis will be a key signal. This could be the Pope visiting migrants (e.g. at a Mediterranean island or US-Mexico border), or convening a summit of religious and political leaders on migration. A strengthening of the Church’s charitable response – say, urging every diocese to sponsor refugee families – would show he’s turning moral support into action. A lack of emphasis here, conversely, would surprise given his background, and might indicate he’s temporarily prioritizing other issues to avoid clashing with powerful governments too soon.
• Internal Church Decisions: Within the Church, watch for how Leo XIV handles contentious issues. An early decision to maintain restrictions on the Latin Mass (or to relax them slightly) will signal how he intends to placate or discipline traditionalists. Similarly, how he follows up on the Synod on Synodality – whether he implements proposals for greater lay involvement or addresses calls for women deacons – will be a barometer of his reformist zeal tempered by caution. Any major appointments of women to high Vatican roles or laypeople to governance posts would indicate bold continuity with Francis’ inclusivity.
• Financial Transparency Milestones: Finally, look for visible steps in the Vatican’s financial overhaul. The publication of a detailed Vatican budget or the conclusion of the ongoing financial trial with convictions would demonstrate that Leo XIV is accelerating transparency. Alternatively, the establishment of a new anti-corruption commission or collaboration with international financial watchdogs would reinforce that the Vatican will not backslide into secrecy.

Each of these signals will help answer the overarching question: Is the Vatican under Leo XIV truly becoming a balancing force in a divided world, and can he maintain unity and integrity within the Church while doing so? Will he embody continuity with the papacy of Francis or will he diverge? Early evidence suggests a cautious but determined “yes” – but the real tests are imminent. In the coming months, Pope Leo XIV’s decisions and their reception by global power centers will reveal the trajectory of this new papacy, one that carries the hopes of many for a just and peaceful global order, even as it navigates the cross-currents of ideology and power both inside and outside the Church.