Syrian Civil War: HTS Gains and Regime Losses

Syrian Civil War: HTS Gains and Regime Losses

By Kevin J.S. Duska Jr.••
SyriaSituational ReportBashar Al-AssadSyrian Civil WarSyrian National ArmyHayat Tahrir al-Sham

Introduction

The Syrian civil war, a prolonged conflict with far-reaching geopolitical and humanitarian implications, has undergone a significant shift in recent weeks. Key territorial gains by opposition forces, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), have dramatically changed the balance of power. With the capture of Aleppo and Hama, HTS is leveraging both military prowess and governance strategies to consolidate its hold. Meanwhile, the Assad regime faces mounting challenges, compounded by limited support from international allies and increasing humanitarian crises. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of these developments and their implications for regional stability and international actors.

Key Developments in the Syrian Civil War

1. HTS Secures Aleppo: A Strategic Turning Point

  • Operational Details:
    • HTS and SNA forces executed a decisive offensive on November 30, 2024, capturing Aleppo, Syria’s largest city.
    • Utilizing drone-guided artillery and precise intelligence, rebel forces neutralized key regime defenses with minimal civilian infrastructure damage.
    • Tactical defections within Aleppo’s police and military units aided in the rapid collapse of regime control.
  • Strategic Importance:
    • Aleppo’s fall disrupts regime logistical networks, offering HTS a vital stronghold in northern Syria.
    • This marks the most significant shift in control since the civil war's early years, dealing a severe blow to Assad's legitimacy.
A photograph of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham celebrating their victory in Aleppo
  • Governance Transition:
    • HTS has transitioned from combat to governance, devolving administrative responsibilities to local factions like Jabha al-Shamiya.
    • Aleppo’s hospitals, police forces, and municipal services resumed functionality within days under the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), signaling an organized approach to governance.

2. The Fall of Hama: Regime Supply Lines Severed

  • Overview:
    • On December 5, 2024, Hama fell to opposition forces following a week-long campaign targeting critical regime assets.
  • Military Execution:
    • Rebel forces employed encirclement tactics, cutting off regime reinforcements while targeting supply depots and checkpoints.
    • Captured military equipment, including tanks and anti-aircraft systems, bolsters HTS’s operational capabilities.
  • Strategic and Symbolic Value:
    • Hama’s central location disrupts regime supply routes between Damascus and northern Syria.
    • The city’s historical significance as a site of political resistance amplifies the psychological impact of its loss.

3. Advancing Toward Homs: The Next Battlefield

  • Current Status:
    • Opposition forces have initiated skirmishes on the outskirts of Homs, targeting key supply lines and fortifying their positions.
  • Strategic Implications:
    • Homs serves as a gateway to Damascus and the coastal strongholds of Latakia and Tartus.
    • A prolonged campaign in Homs could isolate Assad’s power base in Damascus, intensifying the regime's strategic vulnerabilities.

Humanitarian Impact of Recent Developments

1. Mass Displacement

  • Over 250,000 civilians have been displaced from Aleppo and Hama, with many seeking refuge in overcrowded camps in Idlib province.
  • These camps face severe shortages of essentials, including food, clean water, and medical supplies.

2. Civilian Casualties

  • Indiscriminate shelling and airstrikes have resulted in over 1,000 civilian casualties in the past week, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
  • Damage to infrastructure in Aleppo and Hama has left entire neighborhoods without electricity, clean water, or medical care.

3. Humanitarian Aid Constraints

  • The lack of safe corridors for aid delivery exacerbates the crisis.
  • The UN and international NGOs are urgently appealing for de-escalation to facilitate the provision of humanitarian assistance.

Political and Military Analysis

A picture of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham soldiers taking a break from the fighting

1. HTS’s Strategic Evolution

  • HTS’s governance-focused approach, modeled on Ahrar al-Sham’s early nationalist rhetoric, reflects a shift from Salafi-jihadist roots.
  • By integrating local governance structures, HTS is attempting to legitimize its authority and gain broader support among local populations.

2. Assad Regime’s Increasing Vulnerabilities

  • The Assad regime’s reliance on overstretched militia forces and limited Russian and Iranian support has significantly weakened its ability to counter multi-front offensives.
  • The loss of Aleppo and Hama underscores the regime’s diminishing control over key territories.

3. International Stakeholders

  • Russia and Iran: Both allies are preoccupied with other conflicts, providing limited resources to bolster Assad’s faltering forces.
  • Turkey: Ankara’s support for HTS and allied factions reflects its broader objective to secure influence in northern Syria.
  • Western Nations: The U.S. and EU have called for a political resolution, focusing on humanitarian relief but refraining from direct intervention.

Future Projections and Tactical Forecast

1. Prospective Battlefronts

  • Homs: The anticipated campaign in Homs will likely determine the regime’s ability to maintain control over Damascus.
  • Damascus: A successful rebel campaign in Homs could isolate the capital, paving the way for a potential siege.

2. HTS Governance Challenges

  • While HTS has demonstrated competence in transitioning from combat to governance, sustaining civilian support in newly captured areas will require substantial resources and diplomatic finesse.

3. Humanitarian Concerns

  • The ongoing displacement crisis and lack of access to essential services necessitate immediate international intervention to prevent further civilian suffering.

Recommendations for International Stakeholders

1. Address the Humanitarian Crisis

  • Establish safe corridors to facilitate the evacuation of civilians and the delivery of humanitarian aid.
  • Increase funding for NGOs operating in northern Syria to provide immediate relief.

2. Monitor HTS’s Governance Strategy

  • HTS’s success in governance could redefine its role in Syria’s political landscape. Monitoring its administration in Aleppo and Hama will be critical in assessing its long-term objectives.

3. Facilitate Political Negotiations

  • Renewed diplomatic efforts are essential to achieve a sustainable resolution. International actors must leverage their influence to bring all stakeholders to the negotiating table.

Conclusion

The Syrian civil war is entering a transformative phase. The opposition’s territorial gains, coupled with the Assad regime’s vulnerabilities, signal the potential for a major shift in the conflict’s dynamics. However, the humanitarian toll remains catastrophic, necessitating urgent international action. HTS’s strategic pivot towards governance, if sustained, could redefine its position within Syria and on the global stage. As the situation evolves, the interplay between military developments, governance efforts, and international diplomacy will shape the country’s future.